Nadal started the season with 20 straight wins, all the way to at the ATP 250 Melbourne, Grand Slam Australian Open and ATP 500 Acapulco titles.
At last week's Indian Wells Masters, Nadal won five straight games after a first-round bye. Losing to U.S. homegrown fritz in the final, this year's 20-game winning streak came to an end.
With those 20 wins, Nadal scored 3,350 points. What is this concept? According to the ATP's newly released standings, 3350 points can be ranked 13th, and this is exactly what Last Week's Ranking of Indian Wells Champion Fritz.
Fritz's cumulative points are only 2,920, and Nadal earned 430 more points in four races this year than Fritz's total in the past year, roughly compared to the points of an ATP500 champion.
In this comparison, how great and terrifying Nadal's achievements this year have been.
However, Nadal also paid a huge price for this dazzling result, revealing after the Indian Wells semi-final that his left foot was in some pain and suspected that the old injury had returned.
In the final, Nadal had problems not with his left foot, but with his chest, and he had trouble breathing and applied for a medical suspension to no avail. After the match, Nadal said his chest was "aching like a pinprick.".
Upon returning to Spain, Nadal immediately went to the hospital for a detailed examination. He wrote on his personal social media: "Hello everyone, I have returned to Spain and I felt unwell after the Indian Wells final and I immediately went to see my medical team for testing. It turned out that there was a stress crack in one of my ribs and would be suspended for 4-6 weeks. It's not good news, and I didn't expect that to happen. ”
Over the next 4-6 weeks, Nadal will certainly miss two important races: the ATP 1000 Monte Carlo Masters, which starts on April 10, and the ATP500 Barcelona, which starts on April 18. He may also miss the Madrid Masters, which starts on May 1, and the Masters in Rome, which starts on May 8.
Extrapolating from the time it takes to recuperate from a fractured rib, Nadal will not miss the French Open, which starts on May 22.
Nadal's 600 points gain in the latest week has lifted his ranking by one place from the previous period to third in the world with 7,115 points, 90 more points than Zverev, who fell to fourth in the world. Next, let's calculate how many points Nadal will lose before he returns from injury.
Nadal reached the semi-finals at the 2019 Monte Carlo Masters, scoring 180 points. This year's Monte Carlo Masters will end on April 17, with Nadal deducting 180 points the following day.
Next up is the Madrid Masters. Nadal also reached the semi-finals at this station in 2019. Similar to the Monte Carlo Masters, Nadal will be deducted 180 points on May 9.
Last year, Nadal won the ATP500 Barcelona and scored 500 points. On April 25, Nadal will be deducted another 500 points.
The total deduction for the above three points is 860 points. Extrapolating from this week's standings, Nadal's ranking will drop to No. 5.
From this point of view, Nadal will not have a big loss in ranking and points during the suspension. The ranking is closely related to the signing table, and as long as he does not rise to the second position in the world, the impact will not be too large.
Next we focus on Nadal's recovery from injury and how many clay warm-ups he can play before the French Open.
The Madrid Masters have a special appeal to Nadal as it is the only Masters tournament to be held in his home country and is also a clay event. If the injury recovers better, it is estimated that Nadal may make a comeback in Madrid. There is another reason for this speculation, because Nadal is not under much pressure to keep points in this race, so he is likely to participate in this race with a try-and-see attitude.
If Nadal abandons the Madrid Masters, which starts on May 1, he will have to play in the Rome Masters, which starts on May 8, before the French Open. Considering that he has 1,000 points to protect in this race, Nadal will participate in the Clay Masters in this race next to the French Open anyway.
In addition to the above events, the Rome Masters will be followed by two ATP250 clay races, namely Geneva, Switzerland, and Lyon, France. However, both tournaments start on May 15 and finish on May 21, while the French Open will start on May 22. Therefore, Nadal is not expected to warm up for the French Open with these two tournaments.
Based on the above analysis, I think the Rome Masters, which starts on May 8, will be crucial for Nadal, which will test his clay status this year and is also an important weather vane of the French Open. (Source: Tennis House Author: Yun Cirrus Yunshu)