According to relevant media reports, members of the Ukrainian delegation proposed to the Russian side that Ukraine's future national path can imitate the neutral model of the Nordic country Sweden or the Central European country Austria. That is, to adopt a neutral position and to have an armed force of a self-defensive nature. That is, it does not seek to join the NATO military group, and adopts multi-faceted exchanges in diplomacy, rather than moving closer to specific countries or specific organizations, and retaining military forces such as the army and navy that are defensive in military terms.
Regarding this proposal, the russian presidential press secretary Peskov agreed, saying that it was a practical compromise plan, but asked Ukraine to directly adopt the Swedish and Austrian models. But then the Ukrainian side responded that the neutral model of Austria and Sweden will never be accepted, and neutrality can only be a model unique to "Ukraine".
So why does Ukraine not accept the model of neutrality between Theo and Austrian countries, and what will be the characteristics of "Ukrainian-style" neutrality?
(1) Sweden chooses a neutral origin: it is better to participate in disputes than to take advantage of our brooms
At the beginning of the 19th century, Sweden in Scandinavia adopted a new constitution that, in addition to weakening the power of the monarchy of the king, strengthened the power of parliament, the deliberative body, in the governance of the country, and established a very important consensus, what we later came to know as the "policy of neutrality".
Sweden's policy of neutrality, in short, is to form alliances with other countries or organizations in peacetime and neutrality in wartime, without favoring or leaning closer to either side. Sweden's policy of neutrality stemmed from the fact that in the previous two hundred years, they had participated in the disputes on the European continent by various means, originally hoping to get a share of it, but they did not expect that each time they would fail, and finally cede most of the territory.
Years of war and turmoil have led to a complete monopoly in Sweden by the royal family, and this trend is still strengthening, and the impact of the war has caused the Swedish economy to suffer from a cold winter, and the people lack food and clothing. Therefore, when Finland changed hands to Tsarist Russia, Sweden immediately "changed the sky", overthrew the absolute monarchy, established and implemented a constitutional monarchy, and established a policy of neutrality to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.
(ii) Austria chooses neutral origin: standing only in the middle, no one can be guilty
Austria, located at the foot of the Alps, also adopted a new constitution in the mid-1950s, deciding that Austria would henceforth become a "permanently neutral country" and strictly pursue a "policy of neutrality".
Austria's neutrality was due to its strategic location and Austria inevitably became at the forefront of the confrontation between the two camps, East and West. In terms of the NATO military bloc led by the United States, Austria was a bridgehead to curb the development of the Soviet Union.
In the eyes of the Warsaw Pact organization led by the Soviet Union, austria's existence was embedded in its body like a nail, and it was eager to get rid of it quickly. To this end, Austria decided to adopt a policy of neutrality in order to avoid becoming a pawn in the future game between the United States and the Soviet Union. Thanks to the policy of neutrality, Austria is still in a relatively stable development environment.
(iii) The policy of "permanent neutrality" brings benefits to Austria and Sweden
Sweden and Austria, guided by their policy of neutrality, have brought many benefits. The two countries will not easily make remarks or take measures on major international events, let it flood, and the two countries will choose to keep their mouths shut, even if they are forced by foreign forces, they will adopt vague treatment to maintain their "neutrality policy".
In terms of diplomacy, Switzerland and Austria advocate maintaining good relations with the Western system and carrying out in-depth cooperation with Eastern countries, trying to maintain "a bowl of water level", which in the long run will make the two countries profit a lot and avoid damage to interests due to unexpected events or short-term factors.
In addition, The two countries have also actively engaged in extensive contacts with the Third World, in order to prove to the world that "we strictly abide by the policy of neutrality and carry out foreign cooperation and exchanges within this framework."
Militarily, in addition to building a self-defensive national defense force, Theorio and Austria have taken the following measures to avoid incurring hostility or being hated by external forces. One is not to join any military group or alliance organization, and the other is not to allow either side to set up a military base in the country (even nominally). ）。 Therefore, through these measures, Sweden and Austria have become models of neutral countries in the world after Switzerland, and they have also contributed to the prosperity and development of Europe after the war.
Why can't Ukraine be "permanently neutral" and adhere to its own policy of independence?
Ukraine does not accept the model of neutrality between Theo and Theo because it faces a very different situation and its own situation. Due to the intensification of the separation of the east and west regions of Ukraine, pro-Western and pro-Russian factions can not reach an agreement, from the Ukrainian presidential election after the Kuch President Ma, and the change of parliament can be seen that the situation in Ukraine is always full of games between the United States and Russia, and it is difficult to find an outlying island similar to the balance fulcrum in the current ups and downs.
In the field of diplomacy, the pro-Western faction advocates tilting toward the West, while the pro-Russian faction naturally moves closer to Moscow, making Ukraine's diplomacy a huge variable. Militarily, it would be extremely unrealistic for Ukraine to establish a defensive force for the purpose of self-defence. After all, its opponents in both the east and the south are Russia, which has an extremely strong military force.
In the northern direction, Ukraine also faces the strategic encirclement of the Russian-Belarusian alliance. The combined military forces of the two countries pose a great threat to Ukraine. Ukraine strongly opposes this, in other words, russia wants Ukraine to become a docile sheep, rather than appearing before it as a wolf with fangs.
What are the benefits of Ukraine's self-proclaimed "neutral model"?
From the Ukrainian statement, we can infer that the "Ukrainian-style" neutral model should have the following characteristics:
The first is to be more diversified, so that the eastern and western factions in the country can reach an agreement.
Second, diplomacy is more flexible, and this fundamental principle of flexibility is that Ukraine's leading role in foreign affairs should be in its own hands, and it is up to itself to decide who to develop or not to contact.
The third is that in the military field, in addition to retaining the army and navy, it must also have air power, and even rebuild strategic strike force, which Ukraine is determined to achieve. After all, through the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the crisis in the east, they have already tasted the bitter fruit. But it all depends on whether the plan can be approved by Russia.
Russia's purpose in launching this "special military operation" is to make Ukraine a buffer zone, not a front position for the West, and if there is still a big gap between the final results of the negotiations and the expected results, Russia will definitely not accept it. Ukraine's neutrality seems to be a foregone conclusion, but it remains to be seen what form of neutrality will be adopted.