The epidemic has been repeated, and the catering people have retreated and insisted

Image source @ Visual China

Text | Meal Alliance Research

"Do nucleic acid at three o'clock in the morning", "do a throat swab four times a day"... Epidemic prevention has become a daily routine for residents in many areas.

Hong Kong added 21,650 new cases, Jilin added 742 new cases, Fujian added 99 new cases, Shenzhen added 91 new cases... Qingdao Laixi, Jilin Changchun, Hebei Langfang have all been in a hurry. Since the beginning of March, new cases have been reported across the country, and the outbreak has affected 28 provinces.

Xinxin, who received the news of the closure of the county town, quickly sent a circle of friends to announce that the café was temporarily closed; xiguo in Langfang, Hebei Province, had suspended the fruit fishing business, and during the period of home isolation, she could not help but worry about the problem of takeaway suspension and vegetable purchase difficulties; Ziyu's store was in line with the principle of being able to open for a while, and when there was a gap, it rushed to the home and the café to sell customized hanging ear coffee by takeaway.

This is a true portrayal of many catering people under the epidemic. Dine-in food is closed, and caterers open up self-pickup and takeaway business, but the traffic in the hard-hit areas of the epidemic is suspended, the street is blocked, the takeaway is suspended, and the whole people are isolated, and the catering people have nothing to do except bear their own losses.

"Two weeks ago, I talked to some chain stores, and they said that the mall stores had been greatly affected, and the turnover had decreased by 40% or 50%." Gabe, who works in catering services in Shenzhen, said. Shenzhen restaurants are not alone, and UBM, who opens a fast food restaurant in Qingdao, does not want to be repeatedly beaten, choosing to stay away from annoyance for the time being and dismiss employees to close the store.

In the wall of the epidemic, the variety of dining is portrayed on different people. Dine-in closures, "miserable" takeaway orders, and daily losses remain optimistic about the epidemic, believing that dawn is coming, that the city is economically resilient, and that she is confident of reinventing sushi restaurants after the unsealing.

Zhou Zhou, who makes tea drinks in Heilongjiang, said that the epidemic has had less impact on the tea industry, and his own milk tea takeaway orders have not decreased but increased. However, the "deterrence" is not small, and many entrepreneurs who intend to join the brand have been discouraged and shelved their plans to open stores.

The COVID-19 shock is definitely there. In 2020, 50%-60% of restaurants will fall in a "pool of blood". In the first quarter of 2020, the national catering revenue was 602.63 billion yuan, a cliff-like decline, down 44.3% from the same period in 2019.

Fortunately, it's not 2020. We have been living with the epidemic for two years, we are no longer strangers to it, our prevention and response capabilities tend to mature, and the catering people are not as "green" as they were two years ago, and they are no longer so panicked in the face of the epidemic.

"Many catering people who have been hurt by the epidemic in 2020 have long been sober, carrying out e-commerce, semi-finished products and other business lines to forge their own anti-risk capabilities, and their mentality is more stable, and the two years of industry waves have also trained the resilience of catering people..." Wei Qi said.

In addition to dine-in and takeaway, the third and fourth curves are opened up, so that diners are not anxious

Shenzhen | Wei Qi | Catering brand service provider

The epidemic has given me the biggest experience: always ready.

The sudden outbreak of the epidemic has completely closed down dine-in in Shenzhen, and some catering people rely on takeaways to save themselves. Like a Guizhou snack brand I once served, after experiencing the beating in 2020, it began to play a combination of punches to deal with uncertain factors such as the epidemic.

That brand was originally based on dine-in, and after the epidemic, it began to consider how to open up other revenue windows when it lost the huge traffic and sales entrance of dine-in. Before the epidemic in 2019, the daily dine-in turnover of Guizhou snack brands was about 20,000 yuan, which fell to 10,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan at the beginning of the epidemic.

In July last year, shenzhen broke out again, after the pain, the snack brand I served began to take out, half a year, the daily takeaway turnover reached 5,000 yuan, accounting for 1/4 of the total revenue. Does the takeaway business of some chain enterprises in Shenzhen account for more than 30% of the total revenue, and the net profit is not much different from that of dine-in.

From the data, it can also be seen that many caterers regard takeaway as a transitional driftwood. During the epidemic, many communities have set up takeaway storage points. I looked at the data of Shenzhen Chegongmiao Business District last week, and the user activity of the meituan platform in the changed area soared from an average of 170,000 per day to 320,000. And at the same time, the number of merchant accounts that provide takeaway on Meituan increased by 207.

Even the official website gave support to the next game. For example, Meituan Business School is fierce and open to settled merchants, such as lowering the entry threshold, improving the speed of review, increasing subsidies, and providing operational support.

This does not mean that takeaway is a good way to bail out under the epidemic. Like the hardest hit areas of the epidemic, takeaways stopped operating. At this point, we can see the importance of multi-pronged catering people.

After experiencing the repeated blows of the epidemic, many catering enterprises have begun to consciously tap the third and fourth growth curves, avoid risks, and increase revenue, such as semi-finished products, community group purchases, and open up e-commerce sales channels.

Like the Guizhou snack brand I mentioned earlier, because the qualification to do semi-finished products is still under review, it has not yet built its own factory, carried out OEM lines, factory OEM products, and then sold through e-commerce channels such as Douyin.

At present, the warehouse's daily shipments are about 2500 copies, and the sales volume is comparable to the turnover of the two-year store. So far, in addition to SF, other express deliveries are still operating normally. Guizhou snackers told me that even if takeaway stops and the city stops, they won't worry too much.

E-commerce is not the only distribution channel. Now the semi-finished products of the Guizhou snack brand have also opened up a community group buying route. Their biggest customers at present are the staff of the epidemic prevention stations in various communities. In addition to high-risk areas, express delivery is allowed in some areas of Shenzhen. The Guizhou snack brand has also stockpiled 2,000 semi-finished products in various stores.

Multiple initiatives in parallel are nothing more than minimizing losses. This Guizhou snack brand has two well-run stores deep in the Futian epidemic area, usually a single-day turnover of nearly 30,000, and now dine-in closure, no revenue, but also facing up to 60,000 yuan of rent and labor expenses, fortunately there are other areas of Shenzhen e-commerce, the same city purchase sales to fill.

In this epidemic prevention battle, we have also seen the restaurant life. Chain franchise stores with wide sales channels and diversified revenue structures were slightly injured, and the biggest shocks were self-employed and small shops.

As far as I know, there are already shops for sale in the Che Kung Temple area. Most of the "fugitives" are businesses who have been operating for three or five years and have experienced two or three rounds of the epidemic, unable to carry hard, simply changing careers or changing to small cities for development.

I always believe that crisis and opportunity coexist, the epidemic has also spawned new demand for catering, and even stimulated the rapid growth of some demand, just like the city group purchase has appeared as early as 2017, 2020 shows a strong vitality, which will be another development direction of catering.

As a simple example, I have observed a surge in demand for fresh delivery, with a one-day delivery quota for Hema Fresh in a certain area of Shenzhen being full in the morning, another fresh delivery brand having been booked until Friday, and the distribution system organized by the seafood market shows a single order until Thursday. The DAU of the Seafood Market Goods Delivery Mini Program reached 220,000 in just three days.

Some brands have already explored a variety of ways in addition to dine-in and takeaway, and excavated breakthrough points. In 2020, a small number of merchants will eat dividends in the third battlefield, and their epidemic response capabilities will be greatly improved. However, there are still diners who have not yet awakened their consciousness and have not made a hasty exit in advance.

In my opinion, catering people resolutely can not "lie flat", try all feasible ways to save themselves, always maintain the ability to learn, relax their horizons, any sales channels do not give up, as long as the store can be delivered, there is a consumer demand of the venue, must be laid out in advance. The Guizhou snack brand I mentioned is relying on the return visit to the takeaway order and retaining the delivery demand, so that the community group purchase is launched.

For catering people, expand the sales scene as much as possible, and even warm up with the surrounding merchants. With multi-party blessing, if it encounters uncontrollable factors such as the epidemic, there are also standardized response plans.

Restaurants are closed, takeaways are out of service, couriers are suspended, and nothing can be done except home isolation

Changchun, Jilin | Barry | Partner of a Qingba brand

Two years of living with the epidemic has built our psychological defense line more and more solid, but this time the Changchun epidemic came too suddenly.

The number of confirmed cases has soared, and the speed of closure has made it difficult for us to predict the situation.

Since the 13th, the whole city of Changchun has been closed, the whole people are isolated at home, restaurants are closed, takeaway operations are stopped, express delivery is suspended, the streets are empty, and vehicles have been banned. In two days, we have done four rounds of nucleic acids. It can be said that this is the most serious outbreak in Changchun since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020.

At present, we can do nothing but cooperate with the epidemic prevention policy and actively isolate at home. I am a partner of a Qingba brand, running a Qingba with a scale of nearly 400 square meters in Changchun, with a monthly rent of about 10,000 yuan and 12 employees in the store. Nowadays, the bar is closed, and the "granular no income" employees are paid at home, but the expenditure is not reduced.

Previously, Qingba had a daily turnover of 15,000 yuan, but now there is no income. Fortunately, we are not "alone", this bar is a sub-brand of the group, and there are other liquor retail business lines to make profits and transfusions, so there is no difficult anxiety for the time being.

Two years ago, when the epidemic was at its worst, Qingba was closed for three months, and at that time, it lost 200,000 yuan per month, and finally relied on the group to raise funds to tide over the difficulties. This is also an advantage over self-employed, chain stores or brand stores. The latter's ability to resist risks, market insight, brand tension, and ability to develop market segments will be stronger.

Changchun ban, for large chain enterprises can still grit their teeth and insist, but other small enterprises and even small shops began to play "retreat" in their hearts. Although it has only been closed for a few days, some people's confidence has been frustrated, and now Changchun is equivalent to Wuhan two years ago, with an all-round shutdown and no catering people. Some small stores have already begun to transfer, and no one dares to take over in this situation.

However, some caterers are always on the defensive. In more than two years, they have consolidated themselves, issued countermeasures, and when dine-in food is closed, they have gone online or launched e-commerce, etc., and we have also launched a new retail business, selling alcohol, ingredients, etc. At present, express delivery cannot be sent in and out at all, and all countermeasures cannot be implemented, so we can only adjust our mentality, face the difficulties, and wait for the epidemic to subside.

At present, our only action is to increase the self-media publicity, constantly brush the "sense of existence", and strive not to be forgotten by consumers or strive to maintain the heat, publicize the difficulties at the spiritual level, enhance the confidence of employees, and let consumers think of my home after unsealing.

At the moment, my mentality is still relatively stable. In the two years since the epidemic continued, the overall catering data of Changchun City has not dropped but has risen, indicating that the recovery capacity of catering is OK. When the epidemic is controlled, the community is unsealed, and the catering is revived, it will usher in a wave of retaliatory consumption, and it will also be able to turn around.

Although the bar is not just needed, but there are more communities around our store, northeast people, especially middle-aged people, love to drink, the longer they are closed at home, the more they look forward to a social place that meets the needs of drinking and chatting to vent their emotions. Moreover, my home is the only clear bar in the area, and once unsealed, it is very likely that the guests will be full. After the unsealing in 2020, the turnover of Qingba bar increased sharply, from the usual daily turnover of 15,000 yuan to 30,000-40,000 yuan.

The cycle of this wave of epidemics does not know how long, for catering people, it is still necessary to always be cautious and maintain a sense of crisis. Catering itself is not like e-commerce, self-media and other industries, not affected by a variety of factors such as venues, as long as the fan volume is large, through promotions and other activities can dredge online and offline channels, but catering relies heavily on offline.

Especially with the systematic, standardized and digital development of catering, competition has increased sharply, and the requirements for catering people and catering shops have increased, if they want to survive, catering people must learn for a long time, and the concept and thinking must keep pace with the times.

The daily turnover dropped from three or four thousand to a few hundred yuan, and I was a small cold when the epidemic was over

Shenzhen | Good words | Sushi shop owner

Shenzhen is another hardest hit area of the epidemic. At present, all dine-in food in Shenzhen is closed, and only self-pickup and take-out can be opened.

Takeaway is also limited, the takeaway platform will shorten the delivery distance to 5km, coupled with the full closure of the community, many riders are also isolated at home. When it goes out, it must look at the nucleic acid code of the community.

I am in Bao'an District, and although the epidemic situation is not very serious, it is also in a state of total closure. Caterers belong to the front-line personnel, as long as the issuance of passes, venue use certificates can be opened, but the application process is troublesome, the community will not easily issue certificates, all many restaurants are closed, I also closed dine-in.

The sushi restaurant has a total area of more than 60 square meters upstairs and downstairs, mainly for dine-in food, supplemented by takeaway. Usually, the store's sales from Monday to Thursday are 2,000 yuan, and from Friday to Sunday there are about 3,000 yuan. Now the sales window only has customers to pick up in the store, and sporadic takeaway orders.

My family belongs to the high-end consumption, the unit price of customers is more than 100 yuan, and the price of a single takeaway is several hundred yuan. During the epidemic, customer consumption contracted, with only two or three orders a day, and only a few hundred yuan could be sold.

Income plummeted, and expenditure did not fall. The monthly rent of 6,000 yuan and the salaries of three employees are paid as usual. Employees are isolated at home and only I can prepare meals. To make matters worse, due to insufficient capacity and long delivery time, we had to deliver food at our own expense. We convert the orders consulted by customers on the takeaway platform into private domains and digest them.

In fact, relying on the amount of takeaway orders during the epidemic period has had little effect on catering stores.

The uncertainty of the epidemic is extremely strong, we still do not know how to go, consumption tends to be "conservative", I checked the sales data of takeaway platforms, and found that low-priced vegetables such as cabbage have higher sales, which reflects the general decline in residents' consumption, and many residents tend to cook at home. For restaurants with high unit prices, the impact is fatal.

In addition, the inability to deliver to home also dissuaded some consumers, the delivery staff told me that some consumers are reluctant to go downstairs to take takeaway, and then dispel the idea of ordering takeaway, and even some people directly refuse to take orders.

Despite the difficulties that followed, I was not anxious or negative at the moment. The rent and labor pressure of the sushi restaurant is not large, I also have a community of hundreds of people, the repurchase rate is as high as 70%, and recently planned to launch an increased amount of epidemic packages with slightly more affordable prices, so that turnover may be boosted.

More critically, this is not the first time I have faced the epidemic face to face. Since 2007, I have been doing Japanese food brands in the northeast, opened to join in 2012, the national store scale reached a maximum of 66, in 2019, it hit the epidemic head-on, closed nearly 40 stores a year, and survived less than ten.

The northeast economy is weak, and there are repeated epidemics, last year, large and small epidemics occurred five or six times, a little wind and grass, the city closed, many stores repeatedly switched between business and closure. Many enterprise employees in the northeast have no salary at home, resulting in a decrease in the willingness of local people to spend, and young people spilling out to find opportunities.

In 2019, I moved to Shenzhen and engaged in other industries, until I opened a sushi restaurant last year, and officially opened on December 20th, interspersed with the New Year and the epidemic, and the real business time was only 2 months, but the reputation of sushi was very good, and consumers were more recognized.

This is also an important reason why I firmly believe in the dawn.

At present, the documents we have received show that the 13th-20th is a closed period, and it is not known whether it will be extended, but I believe that after the unsealing, there will be a wave of consumption outbreaks, and many people's consumer demand needs to be released. A consumer left me a message saying that he hoped that the epidemic would subside as soon as possible and eat sushi as soon as possible after unsealing.

I launched the Overlord Group Purchase on Dianping to capture more new customers. In my vision, sushi restaurants will experience a breeding period for customers in March and April, and a blowout in May, because April and October are the peak snack season, and the time for consumption may be delayed, but it will definitely come.

In terms of the number of customers, the epidemic does have an impact on the catering industry, but from the overall economic environment, Shenzhen's economic momentum is still incomparable to that of the northeast. Shenzhen's salary level, consumption level, development opportunities, recovery capabilities are obvious to all, such as the same product, Shenzhen's price is several times higher than that of the northeast, and consumer acceptance is also quite high.

Now everyone may need to quarantine for seven days, but it is basically paid quarantine, and the residents are in good shape, and when it is a cold, they will not panic too much. In the past, Shenzhen was busy with traffic, the pace was extremely fast, suddenly pressed the pause button, every household lit up, feeling very warm, from another point of view, everyone rarely took advantage of this time to relax and experience the life of third- and fourth-tier cities, which is also very good.

The epidemic is not necessarily all negative impact, we can pause, do a review, seriously think about how to do a good job, and meet consumers in a better state. From the perspective of practitioners, the epidemic is also an opportunity to accelerate the reshuffle, eliminate the weak, forge the strong, and form a catfish effect.

In general, I feel that the city of Shenzhen is very warm, and I am very confident in its ability to react and build.

Dine-in is closed, takeaway can only protect the capital, I simply close the store, dismiss the staff, and change tracks

Qingdao, Shandong | UBM | Spicy hot boss

Laixi is the most severely affected area in Qingdao. About last week or earlier, a cluster of cases at a middle school in Lacey quickly sparked the pandemic that swept across all walks of life.

My location is shinan district, and the epidemic situation is also quite serious. Since the 13th, there have been new cases in Qingdao. We advocate home isolation here, and some communities are forced to isolate.

Most of the catering enterprises have been closed, and some large chains that protect people's livelihood are still open. Qingdao's regional epidemic prevention policy is to prohibit dine-in food and can be used for takeaway.

I used to run two restaurants, a spicy hot shop in Wanda Plaza and a fast food restaurant in the CBD.

The spicy hot shop is about 70 square meters, the annual rent is close to 200,000 yuan, the store employs 4 employees, operated for two and a half years, and closed during the New Year in 2021.

Speaking of closing stores, it is also related to the epidemic. Spicy hot is a shopping mall store, repeatedly affected by the epidemic, revenue fluctuated greatly, coupled with wanda plaza itself poor management, the business of the settled merchants is difficult to sustain, at the end of last year, after the expiration of the shared lease, they have retreated.

My family's daily turnover is three or four thousand yuan, and when the business is booming, it can reach five thousand yuan. During the epidemic period, many merchants have been crazy about marketing and launched 20% discount activities, and I feel that there is no profit margin, so I simply shut down.

In fact, in 2020, the store was hit by the epidemic and closed for three months, when the mall was reduced by one month's rent. Even so, the cash flow in the store was interrupted for a while, and the monthly loss was 20,000 or 30,000 yuan.

The closure of the spicy hot shop occurred before the epidemic, but my other fast food restaurant collapsed under the epidemic.

Fast food restaurants opened in the CBD are faced with white-collar workers, office workers, and they belong to just-need brands, and the consumption at noon is considerable.

Before the noon time period, the passenger flow was about 130-140 people, and the turnover at noon alone was 2500-2600 yuan. As far as the entire business circle is concerned, my family's operation is not the best, but it is also in the top three.

Out of reverence for the epidemic, some companies have implemented home work, and many people have tried to minimize going out or are reluctant to go out, and the traffic in the business circle has decreased.

My shop is mainly dine-in, its own customer unit price is only 234 yuan, if you do takeaway, discount plus takeaway deduction, the profit is too low. The proportion of takeaway is small, and it is not a good way to deal with the epidemic. The key to the profitability of the restaurant is still dine-in, and the profit margin of takeaway is too small, and at best, the guarantee store belongs to the state of capital preservation. However, like a special takeaway store, you can get raw materials at a lower price, or use cooking bags, and the revenue is acceptable.

My home is not applicable, all dishes are fire stoves, on-site speculation, labor, various materials cost is high, in the case of quality preservation, the speed of meals is reduced, and the amount of orders will not be very high. In particular, receiving too many takeaway orders during peak periods is bound to affect dine-in and consumer dining experience. As far as the current situation is concerned, I have no intention of fighting, closing fast food restaurants, refunding rent, water and electricity deposits, and dismissing employees.

As far as this epidemic is concerned, the mentality of most catering people is still very good. I remember that the epidemic just broke out in 2020, and many people took videos to complain, and now they are quite active in the group and actively cooperate with the epidemic prevention policy to close dine-in. Now that the epidemic situation in Qingdao is clear, the number of new cases has decreased, the original hundreds of cases, and now it has been reduced to more than a dozen cases, and the situation has improved significantly.

However, I plan to switch tracks in the near future and hide from the limelight for the time being. Repeatedly plagued by the epidemic for the past two years, let me see that the living environment of catering is too difficult, or I want to try some anti-cyclical, stable industries.

The hardships of the catering industry are not only the epidemic environment, but also the pressure comes from all sides. For example, always anxious about daily operations, first of all, you have to consider labor, loss, marketing and other costs, every day according to the cost, calculate the net profit, even if you stare in the store every day, you may make a net profit of one or two thousand a month, and you can also earn more than work.

My shop is running well, the profit in a month is so meager, many stores can't survive at all, and about two or three stores in the business district have closed down in three months.

The epidemic is only an objective factor, the most fundamental thing is to look at the individual, such as doing a good job in internal strength, deeply cultivating products and tastes; reducing costs, improving human efficiency, increasing turnover, and expanding profit margins.

epilogue:

In the more than two years of being "stolen" by the epidemic, students' study plans have been disrupted, workplace people are walking on thin ice, and catering people's entrepreneurial dreams are shattered... Even though the epidemic has changed a lot, what has not changed is our expectations for food, the warmth of life, and the ability to fight back against difficulties.

The paint road is full of cars, the streets are crowded, and the shouting of soybean milk fritters on the street is mixed with a sound of "there is a hot pot restaurant nearby, the taste is superb", "That bakery is often queued up for an hour, we will try it another day"... At this time, the steaming bag accompanies the opening of the cage drawer, and the aroma and moisture linger.

In the mall, the restaurant owners are full of smiling faces, busy moving in the crowd, welcoming customers, placing orders, and eating. In the café at the end of the alley, Cheng Chengbian checked dozens of orders in his mobile phone and began to make cups of American-style, ear-hanging coffee...

The ordinary life that everyone was looking forward to would soon return.