Car stuff (public number: chedongxi)
Author | The Way
Edited | Mumi
According to foreign media reports, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to logistics interruptions, the shortage of key components produced in Ukraine and other countries is serious, the world's major car companies in Russia and other countries production lines are under pressure, and some car companies have abandoned the Russian market due to the sanctions imposed by Russia, thus making choices in reducing production, stopping production and transferring production lines, while France Renault continues to insist on production in Russia.
Under the influence of the conflict, Volkswagen, Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other well-known car companies have chosen to suspend production in Russia and Ukraine, and the time for returning to normal is unclear. As many European car companies have chosen to move their production lines back to China, the automotive industry in European countries has gradually ushered in a slight improvement after the epidemic.
Another foreign media said that when other car companies abandon the Russian market, Chinese car companies may be able to obtain more russian car market share. However, in the short term, the trend of the Russian auto market is not clear, and it is uncertain whether these car companies withdrawn from Russia will return again.
First, the airspace closure transportation interruption The cost of material price increases has risen
JPMorgan Chase's analysis shows that due to the closure of Russian airspace, the port congestion on the Asia-Europe route has been severe, and the transportation of goods has been interrupted. Last week, the head of French tire maker Michelin said it would suspend production at some of its European plants due to logistics issues.
Meanwhile, German carmakers Porsche, Volkswagen and BMW, as well as truckmaker MANN AG's plant in Russia, have all cut production due to insufficient supply. Volkswagen CEO Dies warned that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could lead to a sharp rise in material prices, energy shortages and inflation.
▲Volkswagen CEO Dies
Recently, the soaring cost of purchasing metals by automakers has made Diess' statement come true. At present, the conflict is pushing up the price of metals used in automobiles, from aluminum in the body to palladium in catalytic converters to precious nickel in electric vehicle batteries. (Catalytic converters are part of a car's exhaust system.) The catalytic conversion device is a kind of exhaust gas purification device that uses the role of the catalyst to convert the CO, HC, and NOx in the exhaust gas into a gas that is harmless to the human body, also known as a catalytic conversion device. ）
As raw material and energy prices rise, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has also begun to call on U.S. and European officials to reduce protective tariffs on steel to reduce production costs and ensure the healthy development of car companies in the special period.
▲Stellantis的CEO Carlos Tavares
Meanwhile, the head of the VDA of the German Automobile Manufacturers Association said that the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine is disrupting transport routes and financial transactions, and they are preparing for shortages of a range of raw materials, adding that the impact of the conflict on shipping, rail and air transport is exacerbating supply chain problems at a time when inventory levels are already low.
Second, the shortage of parts A number of German car companies have reduced production or stopped production
As supply shortages for key components such as wiring harnesses continue to intensify, Volkswagen has suspended production at its Wolfsburg headquarters plant early. The German plants of Porsche, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are also cutting production, and Volkswagen has temporarily suspended deliveries to Russian dealers.
Leoni, the world's largest manufacturer of automotive wiring harnesses, has set up a working group to address the disruption in the supply of wiring harnesses produced in Ukraine, which has previously led to production cuts or productions by German automakers.
Volkswagen's Porsche chief also said that production of the Taycan electric car at the group's Stuttgart-Zuffenhausen plant has been suspended due to a lack of spare parts, and will not resume until next week, which means that about 200 Taycan electric vehicles will be produced every day.
▲Taycan electric sports car
Audi also said that Audi's German plant will reduce production. It is reported that Audi's headquarters plant in Ingolstadt, Germany, will suspend the production of A4 and A5 models from March 7 to 11, and the Neckarsulm plant in Germany will suspend the production of A6 and A7 models from March 7 to 18.
Mercedes-Benz has also been forced to cut production at its European plants, which is expected to reduce production at some of its European plants, but aims to avoid complete shutdowns.
At the same time, BMW's production in Europe has also been hit hard, and BMW is suspending production at its factories in Germany and the Uk due to supply chain problems.
Third, due to various factors, the United States, Britain, Japan, South Korea and other car companies suspended their business in Russia
In addition to the suspension of production by German car companies, due to a variety of external factors, a number of car companies in the United States, Britain, Italy, Sweden, Japan and South Korea announced the suspension of car business in Russia.
As early as the end of last month, the United States GM had taken the lead in suspending the export of automobiles to Russia. But GM has only sold about 3,000 Cadillac and Chevrolet cars in Russia, and has not produced any models locally, relying mainly on imports from North America and South Korea.
Ford, in an effort to oppose the conflict, said it had notified its joint venture partner, Russian automaker Solers, that it would immediately suspend operations in Russia until further notice.
The 111111 Ford Transit rolled off the production line at Ford's Russian auto plant
British automakers Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin also suspended car shipments to Russia because sanctions imposed on Russia by several companies over the conflict have created significant trade barriers for the auto industry.
The head of the Italian car brand Ferrari also said that it will suspend the production of cars for the Russian market until further notice. In addition, the automaker donated 1 million euros (about 6.92 million yuan) to support Ukrainians in need.
Swedish car company Volvo said it would suspend deliveries to the Russian market until further notice.
Toyota, Russia's best-selling Japanese brand, also halted production at its Russian plant due to supply chain disruptions, while car imports into the country also stopped indefinitely.
▲Toyota
Honda, a Japanese car company that also operates an auto business in Russia, is currently halting exports of cars and motorcycles to Russia. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Honda also joined the ranks of companies that do not operate in Russia.
Given the logistical disruptions caused by the conflict, Nissan has suspended car exports to Russia. Since March, Suzuki's Hungarian plant has also suspended car exports to Russia and Ukraine.
In addition, South Korean car company Hyundai is not sure when its Russian plant will resume production. Hyundai's chief said it had not yet decided when to resume operations at its plant in St. Petersburg, Russia, also because of problems with the delivery of parts.
Fourth, the impact or continuation of the conflict Enterprises transfer the Russian-Ukrainian production line
At present, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also made many automobile-related enterprises choose to move their production lines out of Russia and Ukraine to reduce losses.
Aptiv, a supplier of autonomous driving technology, has moved its high-volume production line from Ukraine. It is understood that Aptiv is spun off from delphi Corporation, the world's largest manufacturer of automotive wiring harness systems, and the company's business scope includes: investment in the manufacturing, research and development of various automotive parts and related industries (including driving and operating systems, electrical and electronic systems, energy and engine management systems, thermal systems and other related products) encouraged and allowed by the state (data from Baidu Encyclopedia).
Aptiv's chief executive, Kevin Clark, said Aptiv had moved a large-scale production line of auto parts outside Ukraine months in advance of a possible hostilities.
▲Cars equipped with Aptiv's self-driving system
The head of German auto parts manufacturer Continental (German Horse) also said that they are trying to move their production lines that have been suspended in Russia, adding that if the political situation continues to be tense, especially in Eastern Europe, it may have a lasting impact on the production, supply and demand of cars.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has indirectly contributed to the recovery of the European automotive industry for a period of time after the epidemic.
Stellantis will move its current production line of vans in Russia from the Kaluga plant shared with Mitsubishi to Western Europe and suspend plans to make more investments in the country.
Due to supply chain problems caused by the conflict, BMW's factories in the conflict areas have also been discontinued, and production will gradually resume at its plants in Munich and Dingolfin, Germany.
Fifth, foreign car companies withdraw their remaining assets or are nationalized by Russia
Russia's foreign car companies cannot go away, because the assets of foreign car companies that have suspended operations may be nationalized by Russia.
Recently, a senior member of Russia's ruling party proposed to close the country's foreign factories and nationalize them. Because the Kremlin side believes that the suspension of the operation of their Russian factories by these car companies is a special "war" against Russian citizens. Automakers such as Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Toyota and Ford have temporarily closed their Russian factories.
▲Mercedes-Benz body produced at the Moscow plant
As a result, Mercedes-Benz fears that its billions of euros in Russia are likely to be confiscated by Russia. Mercedes-Benz is understood to have about 2 billion euros (about 13.8 billion yuan) in Russia, which could be at risk if Moscow decides to confiscate the property of foreign companies that left Russia as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Compared to Mercedes-Benz's fear of asset confiscation, Tesla's move is intriguing. According to foreign media reports, Tesla will pay at least three months' wages to Ukrainian employees who have been conscripted into the army, and it is not known whether Musk is voting with his feet.
Volkswagen CEO Diess has warned that the economic losses caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are more serious than the losses caused by the epidemic.
Sixth, the Russian joint venture car company is more "head iron" for employees to ensure production
French Renault Group has a controlling stake in part of the production line of AvtoVAZ, the largest Russian car manufacturer, and its automobile production accounts for 39.5% of Russian automobile production, followed by South Korea's Hyundai Group with 27.2%, once the production is stopped, Renault Group's automobile production in Russia will fall sharply.
Recently, Jean-Dominique Senard, chairman of the French car company Renault, said that the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict is unlikely to threaten Renault's recovery.
Citibank, however, said Renault, which returned to profitability in 2021 after two years of losses, is one of the most Russian-influenced companies in the West, with 8% of its core earnings coming from Russia. It can be said that Renault has just breathed a sigh of relief and encountered a big trouble.
▲ Lada Vesta car produced by Avtovaz
According to foreign media reports, Avtovaz still chose to continue production considering the survival of employees, and did not know whether the continued production was instructed by shareholder Renault.
It is understood that Avtovaz recently stopped production due to a shortage of parts supply. It was then announced that AvtoVAZ would partially resume operations at its Tolyatti and Izhevsk plants from March 16, with its director expressing a desire to ensure that the russian employees at the plant were on track.
Seventh, foreign car companies withdraw From The sales volume of Chinese car companies in Russia may rise
According to foreign media reports, with competitors withdrawing from Russia, Chinese car companies may occupy more Russian market share. Analysts say Chinese automakers operating in Russia, including Great Wall's Haval, Chery and Geely, are likely to gain market share.
Previously, foreign media filmed that many people in the conflict zone drove a Chinese brand Chery when they took refuge. It is understood that Chinese car brand such as Chery is deeply loved by the local people due to its close price and good performance. Perhaps, after this conflict, Chinese car companies will further become the first choice for local people to buy cars.
▲ Chery Automobile photographed in Kiev, Ukraine (Image source: Weibo)
Conclusion: Millions of new cars or production cuts worldwide
According to expert analysis, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may reduce the production of new cars and trucks in the world by millions this year. Local production in Russia is expected to be most affected in the near term as the company suspends operations, but officials say the longer the war lasts, the higher the risk of a chain reaction across the auto industry.
It is estimated that the crisis is likely to exacerbate the rise in inflation and push the already record car prices higher.
All in all, in today's globalized automotive industry, in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, no car company can stand alone, more or less will be implicated.