Core Intelligent Driving -- A collection of the views of famous experts in production, education, research and enterprises, a comprehensive analysis of THE opportunities and challenges of AI chips, third-generation semiconductors and other opportunities and challenges in the era of "great deformation" of automobiles!
Jiwei Network reported that the current global lack of cores, especially the tension of some chips in the automotive field, has not yet bottomed out. According to the latest research report of a research institution under The Hainer Financial Group (Susquehanna), the global chip delivery time increased by 3 days month-on-month in February this year to 26.2 weeks, and buyers have to wait for more than half a year on average. It was the agency's longest record since it began tracking the data in 2017. Looking back at Haina's delivery data, in January this year, the chip delivery period has indeed been shortened, and there are signs of improvement for the first time so far in 2019.
So, is the lack of core in the car alleviating at present? In this regard, Zhao Yi, research director of the business department of Aiji Micro Consulting, said that today, the degree of lack of core has eased, but it is not as good as expected last year, and the original forecast may be significantly alleviated in the second and third quarters of this year, but as far as the current situation is concerned, it may take a look at the first quarter of next year. On the other hand, the shortage of chips shows obvious structural characteristics, especially the supply of vehicle-grade MCUs and power semiconductors is more tight, because compared with traditional cars, the demand for electrification and automation for this part of the chip surges. The Haina Research Report also confirmed this fact, saying that the MCU shortage was the most serious, with a delivery time of 35.7 weeks (more than 8 months) in February, followed by a power management IC, which had a 1.5-week increase in February.
The lack of core transmission to the terminal, the car company to reduce the allocation, the delay in the delivery time is becoming more and more intense
As for the demand terminal, the Financial Associated Press reported today that Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the demand for cars by residents under the epidemic is still expanding. "Short supply" is transmitted to the terminal, and this year's car companies will continue to extend the delivery cycle and reduce allocation, and may become more and more intense.
On March 14, CCTV reported that due to the shortage of chips recently, Hyundai Motor submitted the latest delivery schedule to dealers in South Korea, and the delivery period of many popular new cars of Hyundai and Kia was extended by 1 to 4 months compared with the beginning of this year, such as consumers who originally needed to wait for 1 year to pick up the car, and now need to wait for 16 months.
On March 10, GAC Trumpchi said that the global chip shortage has had a certain impact on the production and delivery of its M8 and Shadow Leopard models. Among them, the chip supply of M8 models has improved and gradually returned to normal, while the decline in shadow leopard sales is mainly affected by the shortage of ZF DP-EPS turning system chips.
Great Wall Motor recently released February sales data, its sales of new cars fell 20.5% year-on-year, the reason is also mainly affected by the lack of supply of body electronic stability systems (ESP) produced by Bosch Automotive Components (Suzhou) Co., Ltd.
In response to the negative impact of chip shortages, automakers have taken a number of emergency measures since last year.
Tesla's measures are more thorough, because the "lack of cores" can not guarantee a full line of configuration for new cars, Tesla by rewriting car software to support alternative chips, and in this way to help the company maintain a high level of production in 2021.
Many automakers are adopting a "chip allocation strategy," with 2021 prioritizing the use of valuable semiconductors they own for the most profitable cars, such as luxury cars, SUVs, electric vehicles, and more. The 2021 financial reports of several automakers also show that this strategy has allowed them to maintain net profit growth despite declining sales.
There is also an urgent strategy of "de-allocation", delivering vehicles that lack non-critical functions to consumers, and then adding them later, which can both alleviate the current inventory shortage and accelerate the speed of delivery. Moreover, more and more car companies are choosing the allocation reduction strategy.
According to Automotive News, people familiar with the matter said at a meeting with dealers on March 12 that they plan to sell cars that lack non-safety-critical function chips or related components. Last July, Ford said it would ship vehicles missing chips to dealers, park them in dealerships' premises, and then install them on vehicles after parts are in place.
Sources revealed that the vehicle that Ford is now sending to the dealer, although some chips are missing, but it does not affect driving and sales, it is said that Ford will send the chips to the dealer within a year, and the dealer will be responsible for installing these chips on the vehicles that have been sold. But it's unclear when Ford will start selling the chips-missing cars, and Ford hasn't said which models will be missing chips.
In fact, since the end of last year, the shortage of chips has led to many car companies having to cancel some functions.
For example, GM said it will cancel some functions in most products, such as seat heating, customers can re-add this function in the future; BMW's 3 Series, 4 Series, X5 and other models of new cars will lack touch screen function; the ideal ONE originally equipped with 5 millimeter wave radar, but last year's delivery of models are only equipped with 3, and said that the subsequent arrival of the goods will be reloaded, including giving away car owners' points, lifetime warranty rights, etc.; Tesla Model 3 and Model Y delivered last year, There is no USB interface in the car center control and rear row (only the hole is reserved), the wireless charging function of the mobile phone has also been reduced, in response to consumer questions, Tesla said that it plans to refill the USB interface from December last year, but because the chip / parts are out of stock, the specific time can not be 100% committed.
However, it has to be pointed out that in the long run, the latter two strategies are temporary measures, on the one hand, car companies can not give up business other than luxury cars, in addition, not every car company can still ensure the stickiness of consumers after "reducing allocation".
"Black swans" have evolved into "grey rhinos", and effective management of supply chains is critical
The chip crisis has made companies in the automotive industry chain rethink the just in time (JIT) lean production model for key components such as chips, and they believe that the supply chain needs a new inventory model. Looking back over the years, a series of "black swan" events that affected the operation of the automotive supply chain eventually became a "gray rhinoceros" event with a huge impact. In the future, how to effectively manage the supply chain is a problem that all car manufacturers need to solve.
On this issue, Dr. Morris A. Cohen, emeritus professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, recently told Jiwei Network, "Business managers around the world are asking themselves a question about how to survive the next unknown risk after experiencing a terrible epidemic." How can supply chains become resilient? Becoming flexible? How to resist the next risk? This will affect many aspects of the design and management of the supply chain. He pointed out that the lesson we can learn from this is that the entire end-to-end supply chain system must have more visibility, not only to know the situation of their direct partners, but also to clarify the situation of their upstream suppliers, so that timely judgments can be made on the entire supply chain.
Today, there are more and more surprises and challenges in the automotive supply chain. The chip crisis under the epidemic has not yet passed, and the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other geopolitical issues may aggravate the chip problem.
IHS Markit has released an emergency forecast for alternative production, focusing on the disruption of semiconductor production that may result from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict since February 24. In a pessimistic scenario, IHS Markit's latest forecast for global light vehicle production in 2022 will be reduced by 3.5 million units due to continued semiconductor manufacturing supply disruptions, resulting in a reduction in global light vehicle production to 80.6 million units this year.
This pessimistic forecast mainly takes into account that Ukraine and Russia have always accounted for a large proportion of supply in terms of the gases (especially neon gas) and other raw materials such as palladium on which the semiconductor manufacturing industry relies. In a pessimistic scenario, IHS Markit assumes that gas and material supplies are severely disrupted due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which seems to be increasingly likely given the severity of the conflict and the sanctions imposed on the Russian government and financial system, which are likely to include some neon purification plants located in the territory of the two independent republics in eastern Ukraine.
IHS Markit stressed that this alternative prediction is based only on the current disruption in semiconductor production and not on any other factor.
However, it should be pointed out that in addition to the shortage of chips, the problem of raw material supply chain has become more prominent. Especially in the face of surging demand, the original supply chain is not perfect, the fragile supply chain is more exposed, such as the acceleration of the development of new energy vehicles, the demand for batteries has risen, but the obvious lack of production capacity, electric vehicle materials, including lithium, cobalt, a variety of materials rose sharply, this year more and more car companies to raise the price of electric vehicles, which will be difficult to alleviate in the next few years. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has made the electric vehicle supply chain "worse", Russia has its own advantages in new energy raw materials, and now or because of the Western sanctions on Russia affecting the export of raw materials such as nickel and aluminum, Ukraine may cause the production of automotive wiring harnesses to face production interruptions, and eventually these pressures are likely to be transmitted to the electric vehicle supply chain.
Source: Reuters
Geopolitics and rising raw material prices have put enormous pressure on automakers already struggling with chip shortages and rising energy prices. Carlos Tavares, chief executive of automaker Stellantis, said it would put more pressure on its business model. The end of the chip shortage may help automakers offset the impact of rising metal and energy prices, but the lack of cores is not expected to be resolved this year. Volkswagen Group is also wary that the current situation in Russia and Ukraine and its impact on the supply chain could affect the business this year in unexpected ways.
(Proofreading/Jimmy)