▲ Photos of the International Space Station released by NASA. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
On March 12, local time, Russian space agency director Rogozin said that the sanctions imposed on Russia will force Russia to "optimize" the cost of the International Space Station (ISS) project it participates in, which "may eventually lead to the crash of the International Space Station."
Rogozin said the sanctions would interfere with Russia's operational services to the International Space Station, and the function of correcting the orbit would be affected, which could eventually lead to the 500-ton space station structure falling to land or sea miles.
On February 24, the day the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict broke out, the United States joined forces with its allies to impose sanctions on Russia's high-tech industry, and the US government said that it would cut more than half of Russia's high-tech imports. As Rogozin warned, this will not only have a negative impact on Russia's space program, but also directly affect whether the work on the International Space Station can be carried out effectively.
The International Space Station is a space program jointly participated by five space agencies in the United States, Russia, Japan, Canada and Europe, as well as 16 countries, including the United States and Russia. The space station was launched on November 20, 1998, and was originally scheduled to be retired in 2024, but was just announced by the United States on January 1 this year that it would extend its service until 2030.
Now, after Rogozin issued a crash warning, the International Space Station project, as the "benchmark for international cooperation in the peaceful use of space", has immediately attracted public attention on where to go in the future.
▲ On July 20, 2019, at the Baikonur launch site in Kazakhstan, the "Soyuz MS-13" manned spacecraft was launched by the "Soyuz-FG" carrier rocket and successfully docked with the International Space Station on July 21. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Russia's current monopoly advantage is obvious
In fact, despite unprecedented sanctions against Russia by the United States and many other countries involved in the International Space Station program after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, all sanctions so far have carefully avoided the International Space Station project.
Ludders, head of nasa's manned spaceflight business, has made it clear a few days ago that he hopes that the Ukraine crisis will not affect the International Space Station project, and NASA hopes to continue to cooperate with Russia on this project.
However, since February 24, Russian space agency director Rogozin has issued a series of warnings on online social platforms, claiming that without russian support, the International Space Station "will crash in the United States, Europe, India or China"; and even announced that it will no longer sell its RD-181 rocket engine to northrop Grumman, saying that "it is good to let Americans ride on brooms."
The International Space Station is a "building block" large space station, the United States, Russia, Europe, Japan each has an independent node module, solar panels and a variety of experimental modules, therefore, the original plan of people, cargo to and from the spacecraft interface is also "each playing their own".
But with the retirement of the U.S. space shuttle in 2011, Russia's Soyuz manned spacecraft and Progress cargo spacecraft once undertook almost all of the human and cargo delivery tasks to and from the International Space Station.
At the same time, every time the Soyuz and Progress and the International Space Station dock, they also have the mission of "fine-tuning" their space posture, so as not to crash or scrap the behemoth in advance due to the loss of attitude control. Therefore, Russia has a clear "resource monopoly advantage" in this regard.
▲ On March 3, 2019, the manned version of the "Dragon" spacecraft of the American Space Exploration Technology Company approached the International Space Station. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
There is no reliable alternative for the United States
In fact, as the us and European sanctions against Russia have intensified, the issue of the International Space Station has aroused concerns from all parties concerned.
On March 1, NASA said it was "considering an alternative once Russia withdraws," but several of the more mature alternatives at present have their own "hard wounds."
For example, the "Cygnus" spacecraft used to replace the "Progress" cargo spacecraft was originally intended to use the "Heart Sudo II" rocket, but the first stage of the rocket was planned to be assembled in Ukraine, and now there is chaos, which is obviously impossible; and the "Heart Suza II" is designed to use the RD-191 rocket engine that Russia recently refused to sell, and the existing "Heart Suza II" only has two finished products available, and the retired "Atlas V" rocket is also using a Russian booster engine.
The replacement of the "Soyuz" round-trip manned spacecraft was originally Boeing's "Interstellar Passenger Ship" spacecraft, which was highly anticipated by Boeing, but this spacecraft cost a lot of money but was slow to progress, and has not yet completed the docking test with the International Space Station, which cannot be counted on for the time being.
Of course, space hot news is always indispensable to Musk's mixing. This time, Musk also threatened early that "I can replace everything in Russia", and SpaceX did test docking two "Dragon" spacecraft.
In theory, this two-cabin "Dragon" spacecraft with a pressurized capsule can transport goods and people, and can replace "Soyuz" and "Progress", but it cannot assume the function of "fine-tuning" the space attitude of the International Space Station for the time being.
As some experts have pointed out, for the United States and NASA, the loss of the International Space Station means that more than $100 billion in construction investment and billions of dollars in maintenance costs are all "adrift", and the world's most powerful and developed commercial space framework dominated by the United States to date will have to find another foundation and fulcrum.
The price is clearly too great. Therefore, Hale, who was in charge of the space shuttle program, recently proposed at the meeting of NASA's advisory committee to form a "tiger team" composed of scientists, engineers and other experts to meet the challenge.
Many experts also pointed out that the United States has strong aerospace science and technology and industrial strength, not really unable to "rely on itself" to maintain the operation of the International Space Station, and its "dependence" on Russia is more about cost control in addition to the need for political cooperation posture.
Nevertheless, if Russia is really completely "insulated" from the International Space Station this time, whether the United States will continue to maintain the operation of the space station at any cost, or simply let it crash and start all over again, I am afraid it will be a painful choice.
▲ On March 3, 2019, in Hawthorne, California, USA, the staff watched a large screen showing the docking of the manned version of the Dragon spacecraft with the International Space Station. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Space cooperation programs should be exempt from sanctions
Of course, abandoning the Islamic Space Station project is not without cost to Russia.
In recent decades, Russia has also encountered many challenges in the field of aerospace science and technology. Whether it is its "Soyuz" and "Progress" spacecraft, or rocket engines, or "proton" rockets that have been used to replace the large components of the International Space Station launched by the Space Shuttle, they are based on the "old foundation" and mature technology left over from the Soviet era, the advantage is "large and cheap", and the disadvantage is that the technology is advanced and expandable enough.
In fact, once the ISS project is "cut" with the commercial launch market, its valuable foreign exchange earnings and international technical exchanges will also be greatly damaged. This will not only make the Russian space industry and even the Russian economy "overwhelmed", Russia may also lose its place in space.
As a result, the Russian space agency said it had complained to NASA, the Canadian Space Agency and the European Space Agency for the lifting of "unjustified sanctions" — not just to leave behind the International Space Station project, which has not been threatened for sanctions for the time being, but also in other commercial space areas.
On July 17, 1975, the United States "Apollo" spacecraft and the Soviet Union "Soyuz 19" spacecraft made a historic docking, and American astronaut Stafford and Soviet astronaut Leonov completed the first "space handshake" between transnational astronauts in human history, thus opening the prelude to international cooperation and peaceful use of space.
If, 47 years later, all this will break down as the INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION suffers international political influence — as West, a senior fellow at the Institute of Peace At the University of Waterloo in Canada, puts it, whatever the fate of the ISS as a result of this spat, "it will constitute a heavy blow to diplomacy, to space cooperation, to the cause of science."
International space cooperation programs should not be subject to sanctions, and we believe that people of insight are also aware of this. In fact, only by abandoning disputes, seeking consensus, and moving forward hand in hand will there be a sea of stars in the future of mankind.
Beijing News special writer | Tao Short Room (Columnist)
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