We have entered the "post-Western era", and the West no longer represents the general trend and direction of the development of the times. With such a judgment, we will stand up spiritually and open up new horizons. ”
"The West has dug a lot of holes for the world in the era of its dominance, so that there is no way for latecomers to catch up with it." If such a pattern is maintained, a new era will not be ushered in. ”
"What chaos will the decline of the West bring to the world, and what kind of preparations should we be prepared for?"
In the 136th episode of "This Is China" broadcast by Oriental Satellite TV on March 7, Professor Zhang Weiwei, Dean of the Institute of Chinese Studies of Fudan University, and Professor Fan Yongpeng, Vice President of the Institute of Chinese Studies of Fudan University, discussed the "post-Western era" and "post-American era" in conjunction with last year's "Thinker Forum".
Zhang Weiwei:
In December last year, our China Research Institute held an annual "Thinkers Forum". The theme we set for this forum was "The Post-Western Era: The Meaning of the Chinese Path." In fact, we are talking not only about the "post-Western era", but also about the "post-American era". There are certain differences between the two concepts, but we feel that there are more similarities than differences, so throughout the discussion, the two concepts are often mixed.
On whether we have entered the "post-Western era" and "post-American era", three views have emerged in the forum discussions, the first of which is that we have not yet entered the "post-Western era", because the West is still greater than non-Western countries in politics, economy, military, science and technology, propaganda power, etc., and may not wait until 2035 or even 2050 for the world to enter the "post-Western era".
The second view is that in some ways, we have entered the "post-Western era", for example, the non-Western world has surpassed the size of the Western world, but other aspects have not yet entered, such as scientific and technological strength, influence in international institutions, and so on.
The third view is that the world has entered the "post-Western era" and the "post-American era", which is also my point of view. In fact, the concept of "post-Western era" was not my invention. The outside world has been proposing the "post-Western era" for a long time.
From the perspective of the grand historical narrative, the German historian Spengler published his famous book "The Decline and Fall of the West" after the First World War, arguing that any culture has its own life cycle, from birth, development to decline, he believes that Western civilization is moving towards irreparable decline. The famous British historian Toynbee also believes that sooner or later the civilization of the Western nature of military conquest will decline, and he pins the future of mankind on the long-standing and uninterrupted Chinese civilization. These are grand narratives of the philosophy of history.
As the world enters the 21st century, more and more people are beginning to analyze the decline of the West not only from the perspective of historical philosophy, but also rather specifically analyze the arrival of the "post-Western era". After I visited 100 countries in 2006, I wrote an article for the international edition of The New York Times, which was november 2006, and I said that the American model might not be able to compete with the Chinese model, implying that the world would enter the "post-American era." By 2008, the United States triggered a "financial tsunami", which suddenly attracted many people of insight around the world to widely discuss the arrival of the "post-Western era" and "post-American era".
In addition to the "financial tsunami" caused by the United States in 2008, there were two important things, one was Beijing's successful hosting of the Olympic Games, and the other was Russia's use of force to counter The Georgia supported by the United States at that time.
I remember that year, the British newspaper The Guardian published a series of articles with the entire banner titled "World Restructuring". John Gray, a British thinker at the time, wrote in this column that he wrote: "On August 8 of this year, the two great powers announced their comeback. Russia invaded Georgia with tanks; China used acrobats to kick off the Beijing Olympics. They say the same thing: World, we're back!"
The Guardian's opening line in this column reads: "After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western thinkers declared the end of history, and Western democracy was always the most important thing." But the burning of war between Russia and Georgia, as well as the rise of China and other emerging economies, send a signal to the world: Will international relations be led in a whole new direction? So the column makes the point that "one might think that August 8, 2008, symbolizes the beginning of the 'post-American era.'" ”
In the same year, Zakaria, the former editor-in-chief of the American "Diplomacy" magazine, published a monograph entitled "The Post-American World", which also had a relatively large impact. In my book "China Touched", which I published in the same time period in 2008, I quoted Zakaria's point of view, saying that in the "post-American world", without the participation of China's soft and hard powers, no one can solve any worldwide problems brought about by globalization.
But unfortunately, at that time, there were many people who were not confident in the domestic intellectual group, and in fact, there are still many. I was still in Europe, and on the one hand I saw a marked decline in the West. On the other hand, with the rise of the Internet, our domestic "public knowledge" calls the wind and rain, comprehensively singing the West and comprehensively singing China.
Feeling this, I myself switched from Writing in English to writing in Chinese, and began to publish many articles, books and speeches written in Chinese, realistically arguing that China is stronger, the West is declining, and the American model will not compete with the Chinese model. I said that China has risen to such a point that if it were fooled by such shallow words as the West, our descendants would curse us: How could you have played like that when you had a good hand of cards.
In the book "China Shock: The Rise of a Civilized Nation", published 11 years ago, I specifically quoted the views of Dominique Moisei, a senior French scholar, who said:
"Two years ago, Lehman Brothers collapsed; not so long ago, the euro nearly collapsed. These two events opened a new chapter in history, and we entered the 'post-Western world'. In short, another civilization has now begun to sit on an equal footing with the West. In fact, they outperform us in many ways — from their desire for success to their unwavering confidence in their future. We must now ask ourselves what emerging nations can teach us, not just what we can teach them. ”
I also wrote such a comment at that time, I said: On this issue, some people of insight in the West seem to see it much more clearly than some of our intellectual elite.
The title of the final chapter of "China Shock" is "A New Round of Great Changes Unprecedented in a Thousand Years." I wrote this at the time, saying that if a century and a half ago, the West accused China of bringing about "great changes unprecedented in a thousand years," then the world may be witnessing, and will continue to witness, the "great changes unprecedented in a thousand years" brought to the West and to the whole world by China's rise.
In the final analysis, it is not China itself that wants to influence the world in this way, but the depth, breadth and intensity of the rise of a "civilized country" will inevitably produce this shock wave and influence. This is a great change unprecedented in human history. One of the biggest features of this rise is that as long as you change yourself, the world will change because of your change, because your size is too big, and anything you do, you can become a world-class scale and have a world-class impact. In the next decade or two, when China's comprehensive strength surpasses that of the United States, this situation may reach a climax.
Now, a full eleven years later, China's economic aggregates surpassed those of the United States as early as 2014, based on purchasing power parity. The world is witnessing the full range of the impact of China's rise, and the West and its Western model are declining, and everyone is seeing it more and more clearly.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States in 2008, the G20 effectively replaced the G7 as the most representative platform for global economic governance. China has become the most important engine of the global economy, and its contribution to world economic growth has long been at the level of about 30%.
Under the leadership of President Putin, Russia, despite its limited economic strength, plays a unique and important role in the international political, military, diplomatic, and public opinion arenas. The election of Trump in 2016 further deepened the Sense of Crisis in the West. In 2017, the Munich Security Conference in Germany once again raised the theme of "post-Western era", which also attracted widespread attention from the international community.
Let's go back to China. In fact, at the critical moment of historical turning, making a relatively accurate judgment of the characteristics of the times is a key factor in China's successful rise and an important experience in the success of the Chinese model. Forty years ago, shortly after the beginning of our reform and opening up, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping objectively analyzed the general situation at home and abroad, corrected the deviation of our positioning of the times in the past, and adjusted the positioning of the times from "war and revolution" to "peace and development" in the past.
At that time, Deng Xiaoping said: In the past, we thought that world war was inevitable, but now it seems that we can have a peaceful environment for a long time, and local wars are inevitable, but world wars cannot be fought for a considerable period of time, and we may obtain a relatively long period of peace and development. First, because the development of the forces of peace has outpaced the development of the forces of war;
Looking back now, it is precisely from such a judgment that we have formulated a medium- and long-term strategic plan, opened the door to construction, promoted comprehensive reform and opening up, and seized such a very valuable strategic opportunity as the Chinese nation from "standing up" to "getting rich."
In contrast, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev characterized the era as "in the era of nuclear weapons, human survival is above all else"; the United States characterized the era as the era of the "third wave of democracy". Looking back at the qualitative and positioning of these eras, there is no doubt that our qualitative and positioning is more realistic and more accurate, and I think all of us are the beneficiaries of this qualitative era.
In short, the characterization of the times is very important. Chinese, "Those who do not seek the overall situation are not enough to seek a domain," which means that we must have a view of the overall situation, a strategic view, and a view of the overall situation, and then go with the flow. The qualitative nature of the times must go beyond looking at problems statically, we must grasp the most essential things, we must look at problems dynamically, and we must grasp the trend and general trend that represent the development of the times.
We enter the "post-Western era" and "post-American era", not to say that the West is not important, not that the United States is not important, but that they no longer represent the general trend and direction of the development of the times, just like many of us are still using 4G mobile phones today, but we can clearly say that we have entered the era of 5G, because 5G represents the trend of the times.
With such a judgment on the characteristics of the times, we ourselves have made relatively accurate judgments on many major international events over the years on the basis of a large number of original studies. For example, the "Arab Spring" will become the "Arab Winter"; the United States will elect a president worse than George W. Bush; the American democratic model will decline all the way, and Western populism will destroy the future of the West, as I said more than a decade ago.
Out of the same qualitative and solid original research of the times, we have also made relatively accurate judgments and predictions about many events that are happening in the program "This Is China". For example, if we judge from the beginning of the Sino-US trade war that the United States will completely lose this trade war, you can start to fight your trade war, but how and when this trade war ends will be decided by China, not by the United States.
Behind this is our judgment: the United States has become more dependent on China than it is on the United States. After Meng Wanzhou was illegally detained, our judgment is also that the United States will eventually have to release Meng Wanzhou, because the national strength is different, you do not release people, and the damage to your interests in all aspects will make you more than worth the loss.
After returning to China, Meng Wanzhou delivered a testimonial at the airport: If there is a color in faith, it must be Chinese red. Image source: Visual China
Similarly, after the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the West judged that this will be China's "Chernobyl", and we think it is more likely to be the "Chernobyl" of the United States, behind which is our comparison of the domestic governance model and governance level of China and the United States, we believe that although China's governance model is still being improved, this level can also be better than the United States, and it can win in the competition with the American model. I have always said this point, the design of the American political system is a product of the pre-industrial revolution period, and it needs to be reformed well, otherwise the United States can only decline all the way, there is no way.
In short, the characterization of the times is very important, in a sense, it will affect all the work we do, from epidemic prevention and control to teaching and educating people, from industrial development to scientific and technological innovation, from foreign trade to national defense construction, from Sino-US relations to the great cause of the reunification of the motherland, if we are positioned as a "post-Western era" and "post-American era", our thinking on dealing with many problems will suddenly be enlightened, we will stand up from the spirit, completely look at the West, and we will open up a new world. To promote our various undertakings to a new realm and a new peak!
【Roundtable Discussion】
Moderator: Thank you Professor Zhang for your speech, which raised the topic of "post-Western era". Some friends still have a puzzle, what exactly is the "post-Western era"? Has the world entered such an era?
Zhang Weiwei: In fact, we can now see that some of China's expressions and concepts, such as "the great changes that have not occurred in a hundred years", "the east rises and the west falls", etc., actually allude to this meaning, and the world is in a state of great change.
Therefore, I advocate grasping the general trend of the times, which is a key to China's success. Of course, we are as academic research, we have to study ahead of time, as for the official statement can be more cautious. If you think in your own mind is the "post-Western era", many of your problems will be handled and trained in a completely different way.
Moderator: We put forward this topic, on the one hand, it is not like a mathematical problem, it includes a kind of era qualitative, providing a forward-looking vision.
Zhang Weiwei: Even from the numbers, there are some basic data. According to PPP, China was the world's largest economy in 2014, which is often more reliable. In addition, the world's largest goods trading country, the world's largest middle class, and so on, these data are very important. Last year, China's economy was larger than the 27 countries of the European Union combined, and these are landmark events. Including China's average life expectancy exceeding that of the United States, we do not report much at home, but there are quite a lot of foreign reports.
Fan Yongpeng: I found a study that the Economist magazine reported in 2018, a very famous scholar of world economic history, Angus Madison.
Their team made a global economic center of gravity, from a conceptual point of view of the physical center of gravity. He calculated the economic center of gravity of the past two thousand years, which is very telling, and in the past fifteen hundred years, the center of gravity was near China's western region, just on the border of Xinjiang today, to Central Asia, which lasted for fifteen hundred years. From the sixteenth century onwards, with the rise of Europe, it began to move slowly, began to accelerate in 1820, and by the end of the nineteenth century the Rise of the United States, rapidly pulling westward, and then to the central point of the North Atlantic in 1950.
This is how the so-called "Western era" came about. Then from 1950 to 1960 it began to run back, and the so-called "Western era" stayed at its peak for only a decade, and began to accelerate in 1980. Madison predicts that by 2035, this point of gravity will return to China's Xinjiang border. In fact, it reflects that we have been the world's major economy for fifteen hundred years in history, indicating that we have indeed returned to this position. Judging from such indicators, the "post-Western era" is a concept with very solid material and economic support.
Moderator: Just now, Teacher Zhang said that after the "post-Western era" has the characteristics of the times, it will affect our layout and strategic thinking in all aspects. Can you give us a specific example?
Zhang Weiwei: During the Sino-US trade war, we were one of the few think tanks that openly said that the United States would lose the trade war and would lose very badly. Because I say that the rise of China is the rise of the four industrial revolutions, I can provide the world with four industrial revolution products, what can the United States provide to these countries? So you look at the Sino-US trade in 2019 fell a lot, but China-Africa trade, China-ASEAN trade, China-EU trade grew very fast.
Looking at a series of decisions made by our central authorities, the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea, at the risk of military conflict with the United States, it was so decided that the construction of the East China Sea Prevention and Control Identification Zone is also at the risk of military conflict with the United States. We diplomats dare to say that if the US warships anchor in the port of Kaohsiung, I am sorry, but the war for the reunification of the motherland will begin. Behind this is the determination to see the United States clearly.
Fan Yongpeng: In addition to such a macro characterization, there is also a very important function, because our strategic policies must be based on macro judgments on future development trends. If this characterization is determined, one of the biggest influences on us is the mentality. The mentality is good, everything is easy to do. We have a sense of calmness in doing things in China, and this sense of calmness is very important.
Needless to say, in the 70 years of New China, we have gone through many detours and made many mistakes, but if you go to sort out the history of that time in detail, why we will take detours and make mistakes is largely because we were in a hurry at that time.
In order to catch up, these problems, if we determine this qualitative, we can get rid of the past catch-up mentality, and start to take our own calm and calm road, then we will have very different performances in many aspects.
At the same time, we must explore our own independent path, including at the international level, our thinking is not only to integrate into the existing international system, but to say what kind of world to build, the perspective of thinking about the problem is different.
Once we have this perspective, we will think about what kind of public goods to provide to the world in the future, what kind of systems to provide, what kind of rules to set, and many things will suddenly become clear. If we can construct a new world system, we can pursue a more just and better international system.
Host: Speaking of self-confidence and calmness, the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics that just ended not long ago, everyone found that the image we showed was very casual and relaxed, and when the children sang, they were very real and cute. Once this confidence is established, it will inadvertently manifest itself in many aspects.
Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics: The opening ceremony was held. Image source: Visual China
Zhang Weiwei: I was also quite touched by this opening ceremony shot, a row of young people from all over the world "paying tribute to the people". There is no need for very highly professional dancers, ordinary people walk like this, walking in style, and below are rows of ordinary people, which is also a kind of self-confidence.
Moderator: Director Zhang Yimou has a saying that this performance hopes to show a kind of "people's nature". This word is quite touching, which is a manifestation of self-confidence and calmness. Let me provide another point of view, is the "post-Western era", "post-American era" and "Chinese era" a natural equal sign? Can it be said that the "post-Western era" means that the vast number of non-Western countries have better room for development?
Zhang Weiwei: I think the question is very good, whether it is the "era of China", I personally think, it is also the view in "China Shock" eleven years ago, the scale of China's rise is too large, And China has found a successful path.
I fully agree with our generalization of "rising from the east and descending from the west," but there are very few countries that have really found a successful path in the non-Western world and can realize modernization that conform to their own people's and national conditions. The Chinese model is a valid, more competitive model than the American model, relatively winning in comparison, and almost all the slightly educated people in the world see China as a big country, even a superpower.
Fan Yongpeng: I very much agree with Teacher Zhang's judgment, it should be said that China is the only big country that has really found its own development path because of the advent of the "post-Western era", it does not naturally become a "non-Western era". In the era of its dominance, the West has dug many pits in the world, so that latecomers have no way to catch up with it.
For example, the most typical Latin American and Southeast Asian regions have actively or passively fallen into the so-called "middle-income trap" because they believe in neoliberalism. Argentina's kind of country has been the most brutally affected, once a high-income country, and now Argentine President Fernandez is very close to China. This is a good phenomenon, which shows that everyone realizes that China is right to take this road, and it can really help me, and the United States has dug a lot of traps on that road.
But there is a problem here, whether it is a "non-Western era" or not, the West is still united today, while the developing countries are still scattered. If such a pattern is maintained, it may be the "post-Western era", but it will not usher in a new era.
Here, China has to think about what kind of role it will play. We have an old Saying in China called "Heaven and not take, but bear the blame." That is, when you need to come out and take responsibility, you have to have a spirit of initiative and fearlessness, I want to provide a plan for the world, at this time China should take the initiative to unite the third world and promote the construction of a new international system, including how to reach a new pattern of relations with the Western world, so in the future we will not talk about whether it is the "Chinese era", but it is certainly an era in which China plays an important role.
Host: In this way, everyone understands the concept of "post-Western era" better. As you just said, there is a relatively long process in the "post-Western era", and many things will happen in this process, so will this "post-Western era" represent a certain degree of chaos? In the midst of this chaos, how can we rebuild a new pattern of globalization?
Zhang Weiwei: One of the views in the theory of international relations formed by the United States is to speak for the Western order, and the international order must need a hegemonic country, so the United States will play this role.
China, from the government to scholars, does not accept such a view, and we feel that the United States is actually the source of many world problems, troubles, and disasters. The hegemony of the United States is something that we have to criticize in many places, and we believe that many methods are better than the hegemony of the United States.
For example, China's proposal of "consultation, co-construction and sharing" now seems to be a very good principle. The "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence" proves that it has also stood the test of history. China actually has a lot of wisdom, I remember one time trump was going to withdraw from the WTO, some of our scholars were very nervous, I went to an internal seminar, I said what is so nervous about this? First of all, in history, the United States has made several attempts to withdraw from the WTO, but in the end it has not withdrawn, and the WTO has more interests for it. In addition, China is already the largest trading partner of more than 130 countries, assuming that the United States really completely withdraws from globalization, we will continue to move forward with more than 130 countries, do not have to be so afraid.
Host: Mr. Mahbubani said that every time the United States withdraws from a group, it is a gift to China's largest geopolitics.
Fan Yongpeng: So whether the change of the times or not will bring turmoil is actually a "discourse trap". The subtext is that you must not abandon me, abandon me and you will face turmoil.
If we follow the western hegemonic alternation game, then 500 years of hegemonic alternation in history has indeed been every hegemonic alternation, from Spain, Portugal to the Netherlands, to Britain, to the United States, almost all at the cost of war, turmoil, global recession and large-scale population deaths.
But if we think a different way, such as a lot of things that China is doing now, if the United States withdraws from the group, we will support this group, or we will organize it ourselves, including RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), China has made positive contributions to counter-terrorism and maintaining world stability. In fact, many Westerners can realize this.
For example, the former Greek finance minister (Valofagis), not long ago, an American reporter asked him, saying that Chinese build a seaport, he said is this wrong, China is more humane than you Americans.
And more recently, Vucic of Serbia, and hungary's state secretary (Zoltán Kovac), who spoke openly in the media that China is a much more humane country than the West. At the time of the epidemic, there was no assistance from the West, only Chinese planes to help us. China really holds a community with a good future for mankind and a win-win mentality for everyone, and I believe that it can build a transformation that can achieve a new era without experiencing war and turmoil.
【Q&A Session】
Audience: The decline of the West is obvious to all, which has also brought a lot of chaos to the world, what preparations and precautions should we make?
Zhang Weiwei: I still have this point of view, our good friend Martin Jacques, who is British, he believes that when an empire is going to collapse or decline, the process is very sad for many people in the empire, especially the elite, and it takes decades and longer to slowly adapt.
At the same time, the West most recognizes the strength, Sino-European relations, Sino-US relations are still a little different, the main European powers, Germany, France have accepted China's rise, they believe that China is a superpower. For various reasons, the United States cannot say that China will surpass the United States, so the United States still has difficulties.
In fact, all the research proves that The rise of China is an unstoppable trend, we have no intention of catching up and surpassing, just to make ourselves better, but behind the scenes to show strength, the West especially recognizes this. Last year, our Defense Minister Wei Fenghe went to Serbia to mourn the martyrs who died in the bombing of our Yugoslav embassy, and he said a very heavy sentence, saying that this is a shame, and the Chinese army will never allow such a thing to happen again in the future. The meaning behind it is very clear, China wants to show great strength. Therefore, the general secretary has repeatedly stressed in several speeches recently that there must be a strong sense of struggle, and that the community of shared future for mankind is not built in this way in a harmonious manner.
Fan Yongpeng: I very much agree with Teacher Zhang's point of view, this is precisely the time to show strength, from the perspective of game theory, this deterrence is the best way to avoid the worst option. The question raised by this audience friend is very worthy of our serious face. On the one hand, we must have self-confidence, and on the other hand, we must also see that the decline of the West will bring about a huge vacuum in the world, and if there is no positive and positive culture to lead the world, then there will be all kinds of negative and extremely evil ideas.
Audience: Hello two teachers, I am a clinical pharmacist from Shanghai First People's Hospital. From my previous observations, all kinds of behaviors of the United States in the international arena are aimed at maintaining dollar hegemony, and all countries and regions that challenge dollar hegemony have been subject to various sanctions and even military sanctions by the United States. With the global epidemic not significantly improving, the US dollar is constantly overshooting, will there be a day in the future, the US dollar in our hands, the US debt into waste paper, the world currency pattern has also undergone a major subversive change, and this day is not also completely marked the end of the "Western era" and the arrival of the "post-Western era"?
Zhang Weiwei: This is ahead of the curve, we only think about how to break through the dollar hegemony, the internationalization of the renminbi. The dollar will not become a piece of waste paper so quickly, after all, it is still a superpower, and the economy still has some support.
I think from a monetary point of view, China is the world's de facto largest trading country, the largest trading country means that all countries in the world need your currency, and we are right to adopt the strategy of gradually internationalizing the renminbi.
Now there is blockchain technology, digital currency, digital yuan, I think this is very remarkable, digital yuan is a revolutionary thing, in the future we and other countries will be convenient, fast and safe a lot, the United States does not know.
Host: When trading in dollars, it charges a transaction fee, which supports U.S. trade in services.
Zhang Weiwei: New York's per capita GDP is much higher than Shanghai's, and a big reason is this, SWIFT (Global Banking and Financial Telecommunication Association) has a lot of transactions in New York, from which it charges a fee.
The crazy printing of money by the United States has led the world to enter the era of inflation. Image source: Visual China
Fan Yongpeng: I would like to add that your question is particularly good, and it also involves a very important issue, that is, the relationship between currency and the army. I remember the time when Teacher Zhang and Teacher Wen Yi talked about the scientific revolution. Teacher Zhang said at that time that "once the cannon is fired, the gold is two thousand." This is a very significant invention of Western civilization, and in human history, the source of income from wars in traditional countries is taxation, which is very limited and cannot last long.
So how did the West rise? Modern science and technology come from such a cyclical accelerator of war and commerce. This is how modern countries and modern finances originate. Around the same time as the Ming Dynasty, the Dutch used silver as capital, loans to fight wars, bankers lent money to the king, and wars were made as an investment project to make money. When war can make money, it is completely different from the traditional tax war, so the fundamental reason for the modern rise of the West is to establish a war to obtain colonies, obtain trade advantages and raw materials, and then take money to invest in war, it is a financial war model of relying on debt to fight.
This model means that the national currency has a very large dependence on military power. The United States took another step forward, unlike the British, in 1971 gold was decoupled from the dollar, and the dollar completely became a credit currency, how much to send.
At this time, what is the support of the US dollar? First, relying on its credit and military strength, more than 200 military bases around the world support its monetary credit. Second, when someone wants to challenge the status of the dollar, such as the euro in 2003, the United States simply disrupts the Middle East, and the euro collapses. Third, what should we do if we create military conflicts and crises, and the DOLLAR over-issues currency? The United States creates crises, such as the Ukraine crisis, and the currency flows back in large quantities.
Latin America in the 1980s, Southeast Asia and South Korea in 1997 are all the same truth. Later, after 2008, Europe was engaged, and to this day, china and India are left where the wool has not been "cut", so we see that the dollar hegemony and military hegemony are a mutually reinforcing and interdependent relationship
Zhang Weiwei: Let me add that the "post-Western era" is largely related to the financialization of the US economy. Hobsbawm, a very famous British historian, lived to be more than 90 years old, and the last Chinese guest he saw before he died was me and Teacher Chen Ping, and we went to his home to visit and talk for a while. In the eyes of a historian, he says that once a country's economy is financialized, it begins to decline. So the Netherlands is like this, The United Kingdom is like this, the United States is also like this, this is a historian who has long been concerned with the macro history of the world, so the United States is now very empty in its heart.
Fan Yongpeng: Western scholars have put forward a very important concept called "financial autumn", that is, an imperial hegemony has a life cycle, once financialized, the country will fall, and the United States has entered such an autumn since the 1970s.
Audience: I am a senior from Shanghai. In his speech, Professor Zhang repeatedly mentioned the concept of "post-Western era", which was first proposed by a group of Western scholars. But I have observed that many non-Western countries, including the mainland, still look at the world with the Western world as the core, how do the two teachers view such a time difference?
Zhang Weiwei: Because western discourse has been brainwashed all over the world for a long time, including chinese intellectual circles, especially the humanities and social sciences, brainwashing is very deep and very extensive, such as undergraduate neoliberal economics, undergraduate, master's, doctoral continuous learning.
Without deconstructing the discourse system, students may not know how to think. I have always said this point of view, western discourse can come out after it goes in, and when it does not come out, it will go around inside, and there is no explanation for any problem. In a sense, the Western discourse is overdone, but it also has discourse dividends. Fortunately, the biggest change is the younger generation, basically starting from the "post-85", "post-90s", "post-95s", "post-00s" are very confident, I am more pleased, the future of young people's views represent the trend of the times.
Fan Yongpeng: The events of 2008, the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999, and so on, are the common memories of our generation, these events suddenly woke us up, and we need to look at the problem with a new eye. When the times change, most people's thinking is certainly difficult to keep up with in the first time, at this time, there need to be some people who can summarize and condense the general trend of the times into some concepts, such as a concept like "post-Western era", to inspire everyone's thinking, I think it is a brainstorm for everyone. Like our program today, for our young people, for people from all walks of life, such as academics, culture, media, establishment and other people, I think it is an inspiration.
This article is the exclusive manuscript of the observer network, the content of the article is purely the author's personal views, does not represent the platform views, unauthorized, may not be reproduced, otherwise will be investigated for legal responsibility. Pay attention to the observer network WeChat guanchacn, read interesting articles every day.