wary! The United States has taken advantage of the lessons of the Ukrainian crisis to legislate in advance to provide more assistance to Taiwan

Recently, two researchers at the American Enterprise Research Institute, Dustin Walker and Eric Thayers, posted on the US Defense One website that they would provide more assistance to Taiwan before it was too late. Walker is the Senate's chief adviser to the Military Commission on Europe and the Indo-Pacific (2017-2020). Sayers was chief adviser to the Senate Indo-Pacific Military Committee (2014-16) and advisor to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander (2016-2018). Therefore, their opinions on drawing lessons from the Ukrainian crisis and legislating to provide more assistance to Taiwan in advance should arouse our high vigilance and attention!

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks with Defense One's Tarakopp in California. Elliot Lee/Defense One

The United States must respond urgently to one crisis while acting cautiously to prevent another

The Ukraine crisis, which was promoted by the United States behind the scenes, allowed the United States to once again appreciate the fighting will of the Russian fighting nation, and the "special military operation" of the Russian Jedi counterattack not only shocked the world, but also greatly exceeded the expectations of the initiator, the United States. In this regard, the US media said that decades have passed, and nothing has happened. But decades of things can happen in a matter of weeks. Vladimir Lenin may not have said that. But Vladimir Putin made it a reality.

But Senate think tank experts argue that the United States must urgently respond to one crisis while acting cautiously to prevent another. A spending bill that Congress will pass by March 11 should include not only support for Ukraine to bravely defend against Putin's invasion, but also authorize and fund a new long-term initiative to strengthen Taiwan's defenses and deter future aggression.

Why taiwan again?

The United States seems to be "learning from the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, arguing that over the past eight years, the United States can and should do more to help Ukraine's cause and needs. More security assistance should have been provided, and more assistance should have been lethal weapons. And lethal weapons should be provided earlier and in larger quantities to prevent invasions, rather than reacting to them after they have been. Although the Ukrainians fought well, they received less help than they deserved.

The United States must not make the same mistake on the Taiwan issue

The lagging aid lag has led to the current crisis in Ukraine. On March 3, the White House proposed $10 billion in emergency supplementary funding in response to Putin's war in Ukraine. Although the number was considerable, it could not save the war. Therefore, US think tank experts believe that the United States must not make the same mistake on the Taiwan issue.

Earlier, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin talked about Taiwan in an exclusive interview with Defense One in California. He primarily emphasized that the diplomacy-led approach was an early hint of the Pentagon and White House's "integrated deterrence" policy, saying it would be a cornerstone of the upcoming National Defense Strategy. The strategy is expected to be clearly free from military-first pressures and diplomatic, economic and international pressures, and will be supported by the military.

At the time, the United States believed that such a diplomat-led approach could face its greatest test to date in Ukraine and Taiwan, but U.S. policy on direct military intervention was unclear on both fronts. In fact, the United States has long used Ukraine and Taiwan as early experiments with this approach.

On Ukraine, the United States argues that Ukraine is not a member of NATO and is not protected by NATO Article 5. But the country did receive regular rotations and arms sales from U.S. troops to bolster its self-defense. Since 2014, U.S. troops have regularly rotated into Ukraine to provide training and advice to the Ukrainian military. However, when the Russian military launched a "special military operation", the United States and NATO repeatedly claimed that neither the US military nor NATO would fight in Ukraine in order to avoid direct combat with the Russian army. As a result, Ukraine can only fight alone.

On the Taiwan issue, the United States considers Taiwan to be recognized by the Taiwan Relations Act, under which the United States provides Taiwan with weapons and training to enable it to defend itself. In fact, in addition to increasing the supply of weapons and equipment to Taiwan, the United States has already secretly sent military personnel to train the Taiwan military. It is doing the same as it was before the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict. But it has been repeatedly claimed that in the event of an attack, U.S. military protection is not guaranteed.

In an interview on Taiwan, Austin said, "We don't want to see the status quo change, especially if we will unilaterally change the status quo." We believe that all tensions in the region should first be resolved through diplomatic means. ”

But U.S. Senator Richter and his colleagues on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have proposed the Taiwan Deterrence Initiative, which would seek to implement a state-led military financing program for Taiwan. Senator Hawley's Taiwan Armed Forces Act takes a similar approach, primarily seeking to use Pentagon security aid funds.

Legislation is to be enacted to provide more assistance to Taiwan in advance

In view of the current situation and lessons learned from the Ukrainian issue, the United States believes that the same mistake must not be made on the Taiwan issue. The last two U.S. administrations have been committed to pursuing the Indo-Pacific strategy and believe that the most effective way to pursue it is to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself. This is also the reason why the United States has been committed to maintaining sufficient self-defense capabilities for Taiwan for the past four decades.

However, as the United States continues to adjust its strategy toward China and lists China as its primary strategic rival, the United States intends to strengthen military assistance to Taiwan through legislation. Some lawmakers argue that it is time to launch a new U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program for Taiwan. Last November, Senator Jim Risch, R-Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, introduced the Taiwan Deterrence Act. The House and Senate have already introduced a similar bill, the Taiwan Weapons Act. The bills, which propose $2 billion to $3 billion a year in military appropriations, would bring Taiwan closer to U.S. support for Israel.

Therefore, as part of Ukraine's emergency funding legislation, Congress should authorize a long-term Taiwan FMF program and pay a down payment of at least $1 billion.

Dustin Walker and Eric Sayers gave the following reasons:

Dedicated Taiwan FMF programs are both necessary and affordable. Taiwan will use FMF funds to buy "Made in the Usa" defense equipment in the form of grants and loans. More importantly, the urgency of restoring a credible deterrent in the Indo-Pacific and the consequences of failure mean that the only thing that would cost more than increasing aid to Taiwan is not to do so.

Supporting Taiwan will help correct the historical imbalance in FMF funding. Only 2 percent of the State Department's most recent FMF budget request was for East Asia and the Pacific. FMF funding of Taiwan should reflect its status as a key partner in our main theater of operations and be threatened by our adversaries.

The new funding will not lessen Taiwan's responsibility to spend more and better on its own defense. Instead, the funding will serve as a mechanism to incentivize Taiwan to increase investment in the powerful asymmetric capabilities that take advantage of Taiwan's preponderance geographically and weaken Beijing's military superiority.

Increasing FMF funding for Taiwan now could anger Beijing. But that's not more important than the $750 million arms sales to Taiwan proposed by the Biden administration last August. On the contrary, strengthening U.S. support for Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time would send a message to Beijing that China's unwillingness or inability to restrain Moscow has strengthened the international community's determination to oppose unilateral changes to the status quo by force.

American strategist Thomas Schelling has warned that the danger stems from "individuals' inability to cope with the timing until they are sure the time is right — and it's usually too late." Putin should not invade Ukraine for the second time, and the United States evokes a sense of urgency, unity, imagination and ambition that seem to have finally gained a foothold. Let us act now in that spirit to support Taiwan before decades of collapse again for weeks or even greater danger.