Since Russia's military intervention in Ukraine on February 24, the rhythm of the French presidential election has been completely disrupted, and the international situation that was not paid attention to in the election campaign has become a key concern of voters, some candidates have to "find another way" to let their voices be heard, and candidates have chosen to "hold their ground": continue to express their opinions on the Ukrainian issue.
French President Macron. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)
Voters are most concerned about purchasing power and the situation in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is more dramatic than ever, with 50 percent of French now claiming to be concerned about the war between Ukraine and Russia, according to the French media outlet BFMTV. According to a poll conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for le Monde released on the 5th, a third of the respondents even said that the conflict will affect their vote in the presidential election. The survey also shows that this issue is now the second biggest concern for the French and the second most important issue they consider when voting in next month's presidential election.
The survey shows that the most concerned issues for the French at the moment are purchasing power, followed by the situation in Ukraine, environmental issues, and immigration, health systems and social inequalities. In fact, purchasing power is also linked to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which respondents are well aware of the impact this will have on energy prices, especially raw material prices.
The "flag effect" of the situation in Ukraine has allowed outgoing President Emmanuel Macron to benefit from the election campaign. Not only that, but Macron also benefits from some form of national unity, which is rare in presidential campaigns.
In this case, it is difficult for other candidates to assert their positions, which is concretely reflected in the same investigation. According to a survey by Ipsos released the same day for the Fondation Jean-Jaurès, the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Poins (CEVIPOF) and Le Monde, Macron continued to lead the polls: two days after he officially announced his participation in the presidential election, his vote soared to 30.5 percent.
Le Pen, the candidate for the "National Union", followed, with a 14.5% vote, down 1 percentage point. The candidate of the "Reconquista" Party, Eric Zemoor, the candidate of "Indomitable France", Mélang-sur-Mernchon, and the Republican candidate Valerie Pécrés competed for the third place.
Candidates trying to regain control of the campaign
While the conflict between Kiev and Moscow has paralyzed the presidential campaign, candidates are trying to regain control. If some candidates decide to go the other way, the Socialists and Greens continue to focus their speeches on Ukraine.
Zemur, Le Pen and Pekers returned to campaign rallies. On the 5th, Le Pen, a candidate for the "National Union", held a campaign rally in the province of Gard, which is under the jurisdiction of the Occitanie region. In the past few days, Le Pen has been relatively low-key on the ground, preferring to speak out through the media before resuming her campaign, and she expressed "admiration" for the Russian head of state in 2011.
Valérie Pécrés, the candidate for the Republican presidential campaign of France's right-wing party, greeted the audience at a party rally in Paris on December 11, 2021. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)
"Vladimir Putin was wrong, he crossed the red line. This is intolerable and unacceptable. He has violated Ukraine's sovereignty, violated Ukraine's borders, which is indisputable. Le Pen recently defended herself through the column "Facing BFM" that she tried to deviate from the original point of view, and called for "betting everything on diplomacy" on the 5th.
Some candidates try to change the subject. After a collapse in support, Pekeres also tried to get back on track. After attending the Defense Council with the former secretary of defense and presenting its defense program, the Republican candidate now chooses a completely different field. On the afternoon of the 5th, she went to the forest and then exchanged views with industry participants, and she also held a rally in Metz later in the day.
Eric Zemour held a campaign rally in Toulon on the 6th, and Marion Marechal-Le Pen, a former parliamentarian who is regarded as the heir of the "National Union" and also Le Pen's niece, officially expressed his support for Zemour. The rally will help bridge internal differences over the hosting of Refugees in Ukraine. The debater called on Ukrainians to "go to Poland" so that they could "go home" after the war.
The "Macronists", "indomitable France", the Socialists and the Greens insisted on continuing to express their views on the situation in Ukraine.
The views of the Socialist Party and the Green Party are completely different, hidalgo and Yannick Yado decided to concentrate on mobilizing for the situation in Ukraine just this past weekend, and the two also participated in the parade held in Republic Square on the 5th. Mérancheon held a "peaceful rally" in Lyon on the 6th in a bid to dispel leftist accusations of war in Ukraine.
On the "Macron faction" side, although Macron has already announced in his letter announcing his campaign that he "cannot campaign as he wishes" for background reasons, the media believes he will proceed with caution.
Stanislas Guérini, the leader of the Republican Forward Party, also recently called for participation in the protests in Paris to "show our full solidarity with the Ukrainian people."
"Anti-NATO" has been blamed
In the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many candidates have targeted NATO, and support or opposition to NATO has unexpectedly become the focus of this election debate. Three of the five main candidates — Le Pen, Zemur and Mélang-schoen — are strong opponents of the transatlantic military alliance.
Including many of the candidates who got bogged down in the polls, Hidalgo, Pekrés and Yannick Jardo, the war gave France's traditional party a new opportunity to attack some of its most radical opponents, accusing them of being "close" to Putin while falsely denigrating NATO. Le Pen, Zemur and Mélang-stegan, three candidates seen as "sovereigns," have been blamed.
Two far-right leaders have expressed admiration for Russia's uncompromising nationalist attitude, and Zemour even said a few years ago that he "dreamed of a French Putin." Le Pen scoffed at Putin's claim that he posed a threat to Europe, saying NATO was no longer useful.
Although Méranzion is not close to the Kremlin's owner, he has also joined the camp of "downplaying the Russian threat" and accusing NATO of provoking trouble.
Martin Quencez, a security analyst and deputy director at the Paris office of the Marshall Fund in Germany, said the war in Ukraine was a tragic reminder of NATO's raison d'être: protecting member states from "very real" threats. "In this regard, this war is especially damning for candidates who claim there is no threat," he added.
"Their assertions are based on two main arguments: first, that the Russian threat has been exaggerated, even invented by U.S. intelligence; and second, that Russian hostility is simply the result of NATO and U.S. aggression," Martin Kunssee further said. "The war waged by Putin effectively pushes both arguments."
(Editor: Wen Geng)