In order to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, Putin resolutely ordered the use of force, and now 10 days have passed, the Russian army has not yet taken Kiev, and even forced by pressure from all sides, it has to "temporarily truce" with Ukraine, which gives Ukraine valuable buffer time. It can be said that with the passage of time, the war with Ukraine is likely to become a "sore" that Russia is difficult to heal, and just when the fighting nation is in a state of disrepair, there is another bad news, and Putin is likely to face another difficult choice.
According to the surging news reported on March 5, Finnish President Sholi Niinistö recently visited the United States and met with President Biden in Washington, D.C. Niinistö said that "Finland is seriously considering joining NATO for the first time." According to the Russian Satellite News Agency reported on the same day, although Finland has cooperative relations with NATO, it has "never sought to join NATO" before this, so what prompted Finland to start "seriously considering" joining NATO? President Niinistö said in an interview with US media that this is because "whether it is Finland or Sweden" and "our situation has changed".
On the one hand, the domestic situation has changed. On the question of whether to join NATO, Finland conducted a poll on February 28, and more than half (53%) of Finns said they should join NATO, President Niinistö pointed out that this is the "first time" in Finland's history, and with the majority of Finns supporting Finland's membership of NATO, "joining NATO" has a "deep public opinion base", based on this, Niinistö pointed out, "We are now open to discussing this issue with our own parliament." ”
△ Finnish army
On the other hand, the situation abroad has changed, specifically, the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Generally speaking, it has always been "internal factors that determine external factors", which seems to be an "unbreakable" truth, but on the issue of Finland's accession to NATO, it seems to be the other way around. According to media reports, the reason why the Finnish people decided to join NATO is mainly because of the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, with Putin's use of force against Ukraine, the "Russia-hate" sentiment in Finland continues to rise, and Putin's warning to Finland and Sweden after the war has stimulated the Finnish people, but accelerated Finland's accession to NATO.
It was the changes in the situation "at home" and abroad that prompted the Finnish government to take a crucial, and at the same time dangerous, step of "serious consideration" to join NATO. So, if Finland joins NATO, what impact will it have on Russia, and will Putin replicate the Ukrainian model and use force to prevent Finland from joining NATO? First of all, the Russian-Finnish border is 1248 kilometers long, "the longest for the Eu", if Finland joins NATO, it means that Russia will have to deploy heavy armored corps on the Western Front for a long time, which is a very heavy burden for Russia, which is heavily sanctioned and economically difficult.
Secondly, Finland is a Baltic sea country, and Estonia across the sea, the middle is the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Finland is Russia's only export into the Baltic Sea, considering that Estonia is already a NATO member, Finland if it also joins NATO, then NATO's "vise" in the Baltic Sea is officially formed, which can make Russia lose its western sea outlet at any time. Of course, Russia also has an enclave near the Baltic Sea, that is, Kaliningrad, but this enclave is surrounded by NATO countries, separated from the Russian mainland, and has to pass through the Gulf of Finland to be supplied.
Finally, Finland is also close to the heart of Russia, about 700 kilometers from Moscow and just over 100 kilometers from St. Petersburg. At present, the United States has restarted the Army's 56th Artillery Command deployed in Europe during the Cold War, and equipped it with the "Dark Hawk" hypersonic missile, although its average speed is only Mach 5 per hour, far less than Russia's "Zircon" and "Vanguard" missiles, but if the United States deploys the "Dark Hawk" missile to Finland, it will only take 7 minutes to hit Moscow and 2 minutes to hit St. Petersburg.
It can be seen from here that Finland's accession to NATO is Russia's "unbearable weight", because of this, according to CCTV 13 reports, as early as 2016, President Putin issued a warning in front of Finnish President Niinistö, Putin said that once Finland joins NATO, it means that the country's army has become part of NATO's military strength, and Finland is close to Russia, "what do you think Russia will do in this case", "Where do you think I will put the army?" "It was clear that Putin was very clear at the time suggesting that Russia could take military action if Finland joined NATO.
Fast forward 6 years, as Finnish President Niinistö said, now "the situation has changed", Finland for the first time "seriously considered" joining NATO, will Putin send troops to stop it? This is precisely the most painful place for Putin, now Russia and Ukraine are fighting fiercely, because they do not want to hurt civilians, the Russian army has to fall into the quagmire of urban warfare and street warfare, the progress of the war is not smooth, and Russia has also suffered "devastating" sanctions for this, and the economic pressure is extremely high. Under such circumstances, can Putin still use troops against Finland? Caught in the quagmire of another war?
To tell the truth, if Putin really does this, Russia will be more passive in the international community, it will become more isolated, and even if Russia goes to war with Finland, I am afraid that Sweden and Georgia will also apply to join NATO. With the strength of the Russian army, can the "fire extinguishing" be extinguished? We pointed out last year that the Ukraine crisis is the war trap dug by the United States for Russia, the United States has prepared the script, Putin pounced on it, the consequences are very serious, and now another difficult problem is placed in front of Putin, the fighting nation "can not fight"?
Of course, according to the previous analysis of the "sharp blade", the us in Europe is ultimately aimed at China, and its fundamental purpose is to force Russia to "fall to the United States" and help the United States contain China, which was semi-openly pointed out by Biden at the meeting of the heads of state of the United States and Russia last June, and pointed out that Putin was given "half a year to a year" to consider. Half a year later, that is, in December, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis broke out, and Putin did not want to turn to the United States, so he could only choose between "sitting back and watching Ukraine join NATO" and "sending troops to stop Ukraine", and Putin chose the latter.
Now Biden has once again given Putin a choice question, Finland "seriously considers" joining NATO, Putin still has three options, A, sit back and watch Finland become a member of NATO; B, send troops to Finland; C, turn to the United States, help the United States contain China. If Putin chooses C, then the "sharp blade" can be sure that the Russo-Ukrainian war will soon end, Ukraine will sign a peace treaty with Russia, and promise not to join NATO, finland, Sweden, Georgia will also be "indefinitely" Extended the process of joining NATO, and the relevant sanctions against Russia will also be lifted depending on the degree of Putin's cooperation with the United States.
For Putin, choosing A or B is extremely painful, and choosing C is equivalent to giving up the hope of Russia's rise, because only China has the strength to shake the hegemony of the United States, and Russia's economy cannot do this. Here, the "sharp edge" has to praise the strategic layout ability of the United States, last year we analyzed and pointed out that since September, the United States strategy against China and Russia can be described as "exhaustive", "one link and one link", almost "water leaks", suspect that the United States used artificial intelligence for strategic deduction, and now the "sharp blade" once again emphasizes this point, hoping to attract attention.