The phone unfolds "Folding World" only to Apple

Economic Observer reporter Qian Yujuan Guangzhou reported that "Apple does not do folding screen mobile phones, when will it launch folding screen mobile phones?" Yang Shu, who has been deeply cultivating in the upstream of the mobile phone manufacturing industry chain for more than 20 years, has been tracking, as the middle management of screen manufacturing enterprises, Yang Shu is still the "fruit powder" for many years.

In 2021, after the mainstream Android mobile phone manufacturers have launched folding screen mobile phones, Tianfeng Securities analyst Guo Mingxiao has issued a report predicting that Apple may launch a folding iPhone in 2023.

The above news once made Yang Shu excited, and she even bragged to the people around her, "In 2023, Apple will fold, and I will definitely change my mobile phone." ”

However, this expectation faces an extension. At the end of February this year, DSCC analysts at screen supply chain consulting company expected that Apple's folding screen iPhone would be shipped two years later than originally planned, so it is estimated that Apple's folding screen mobile phone may be available in 2025.

Apple is temporarily absent

Yang Shu recalled to reporters that Apple's use of AMOLED screens is also later than the mobile phone manufacturers in the Android camp.

In 2016, Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi have all launched mobile phones equipped with AMOLED displays, and Apple did not announce the launch of i-Phone8 equipped with AMOLED screens until 2017.

Although postponed, after the above information was sent, Yang Shu remembered that this had brought a lot of impetus to the entire AMOLED screen shipment.

There is this precedent, "Apple does not use this screen to have its own reason." Yang Shu feels that Apple should "eat the screen thoroughly and use it to the extreme" in terms of flexible AMOLED.

Yang Shu will deal with downstream mobile phone manufacturers frequently every day, and her feeling is that Apple has not actively released any information before the product is launched since the Jobs era, and "the confidentiality work is very strict."

Apple's experience and technical maturity of products are "high standards and strict requirements", and will not allow unseen products to show off their skills. Not only Yang Shu has this perception, "This is almost a consensus in the industry. ”

Liu Xin, who has been working in the upstream of the mobile phone parts industry chain for many years, used the term "extreme perfection" to describe Apple's pursuit of products in an interview with reporters. "The attitude can be said to be harsh." From the technical dimension, Liu Xin regards Apple as a vane of the mobile phone industry. He pulled the time point back to the launch of Apple's first generation of products, compared with Nokia, which had occupied the hegemony of the mobile phone market for many years, "completely opening up a new mobile phone world for everyone." ”

What is a real smartphone? Apple gave the answer with the 3.5-inch full-touch iPhone generation, when both geek enthusiasts and mobile phone users, and even the entire mobile phone parts industry chain, remembered the bitten Apple logo. Since then, the benchmark of the smartphone industry has emerged.

The "black technology" that is shouted the most by Android mobile phone manufacturers is reflected in many iPhones in Apple's early days. Mr. Chen, a fruit powder, introduced to reporters that things like capacitive fingerprint unlocking, 3D structured light face unlocking, and the complete cancellation of the classic Home button that has been used for 10 years Mr. Chen understands, "According to past performance, Apple will not be mounted on flagship products when the technology development is not yet mature." ”

Mr. Chen also remembers that in 2008, Apple applied for a patent for pre-fingerprint recognition (TouchID), but it was not used until 2013 on the iPhone5s, the 7th generation of i-Phone. "Apple doesn't have all technology ahead of Android." He mentioned that since 2019, the flagship mobile phones of almost every manufacturer in the entire Android mobile phone camp have adopted a high refresh rate and high sampling rate of 120Hz, but Apple has always used a refresh rate of 60Hz, which has made many netizens comment on its "stuck in the past".

In fact, Apple has adopted a high refresh rate in its tablet, which has also brought users a good sense of experience, "the technology has matured", but it still avoided applications on the iPhone12 at that time. Mr. Chen told reporters that Apple did not come late until the "high brush" of the iPhone 13. Apple's fineness in polishing the product also makes Yang Shu feel, "Apple is relatively cautious and unwilling to venture in." ”

Is folding the direction?

Referring to the folding screen mobile phone, "the fruit powder circle is also divided into two poles, and some people think that Apple is squeezing toothpaste." Mr. Chen said, but he has a personal understanding of Apple's current choice, "It's not that it can't be done, the time has not yet come." ”

The reporter inquired about the information and learned that Apple applied for a folding screen patent as early as July 2020, and after the patent was approved in November of that year, it showed its device as a "foldable device" in its description, and there was no other introduction information.

After DSCC analysts sent the news that Apple's folding screen iPhone was delayed for another two years, it also released a signal at the same time - Apple is developing a folding screen iPad.

Liu Xin from the perspective of technology research and development, Apple is capable of making a folding screen mobile phone, but it has lagged behind the Android camp for a long time, making the waiting fruit fans more and more anxious.

However, although the schedule has changed, several people interviewed by reporters are still optimistic, "Apple has not given up the folding screen product." ”

When tracking and monitoring the every move of various downstream terminal manufacturers, Yang Shu found that although the manufacturers had their own plans, they were "consistent and clear" in the general direction of folding screen mobile phones.

Recalling the MWC in 2019, exhibitors and visitors from all walks of life around the world flocked to the booths of Samsung and Huawei, with the purpose of seeing the "aroma" of folding screen mobile phones.

After that, the folding screen mobile phone entered the public vision from the concept, and Yang Shu regarded that year as the first year of commemorative significance for screen and terminal manufacturers. But while affirming the disruptive products, she always remembers, "At that time, I could only look through the glass cover." ”

What does this mean? "A lot of things aren't ready." Yang Shu also saw that manufacturers who have no actual products are scrambling to show their own folding screen demos (demos), which she believes are all improving brand power by showing muscles.

From a distance to now directly get started, experience, in three years, including millet, OPPO and even the glory of starting again, have successively launched their own folding screen mobile phone products, which not only shows the rapid development of folding screen technology, but also means that "without folding, it is impossible to talk about high-end." Yang Shu said.

Wang Xi, the IDC China research manager who has been observing domestic mobile phone brands in depth, has also seen the efforts made by various companies in the high-end price market in recent years, mentioning the layout of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers on folding screen mobile phones, he analyzed from the perspective of product form, "The Android camp has stepped out of the differentiated route different from Apple. ”

In order to continue to challenge the high-end market and establish the image of high-end brands in the future, domestic brands have taken the initiative to explore folding screen mobile phone products. In the interview, Wang Xi also analyzed from the market perspective that folding screen products are helpful for the establishment of a high-end brand image of mobile phone manufacturers, more than this, "From the perspective of demand, it can stimulate consumers' demand for replacement, and from a technical point of view, it can promote the accumulation of manufacturers' research and development strength." ”

Because the initial pricing is more than 10,000 yuan, folding screen mobile phones are divided into high-end niche categories, but now due to the entry of more and more manufacturers, there is a trend of impacting the mainstream market.

Three months after the launch of OPPO's folding screen mobile phone FindX, OPPO's chief product officer Liu Zuohu publicly stated that it had become "the fastest selling folding screen mobile phone ever sold in the Chinese market". At the beginning of 2022, the glory of the folding screen mobile phone MagicV also released good news.

"In 2022, the folding screen mobile phone market can grow 10 times." Honor CEO Zhao Ming predicted during the 2022 MWC that he not only believes that folding screens will become a new growth area for mobile phone manufacturers, but even like ordinary mobile phones, "folding screens will become the mainstream of smart phones." ”

Industry research institutions are also mostly optimistic. The report released by CINNOResearch predicts that global folding screen smartphone sales are expected to reach 15.69 million units in 2022, an increase of 107% year-on-year.

Yang Shu does not deny the rapid growth of folding screen mobile phones, she quoted the forecast data released by market research company UBIResearch, the foldable mobile phone market is expected to accumulate or exceed 100 million units by 2026, accounting for 9.7% of the total. However, she feels that there is still a big gap between folding screen mobile phones and want to become mainstream products in the market.

Consumer reality

The trend of the times, manufacturers fans, but the reality is that manufacturers in the folding screen products did not start.

A communication equipment channel provider in the southwest region told reporters that although many of its stores, including Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and Glory, have stockpiled folding screen mobile phones of various brands, they cannot guarantee that the corresponding brand stores can exhibit the physical machines of folding screen mobile phones. "Rice noodles" Mr. Yu is from Hangzhou, he once went to the Xiaomi home near home, want to experience mixfold this folding screen mobile phone, "just look at the introduction, check the parameters online, but also have to actually touch, take a look." "To his disappointment, there are only model machines.

Browsing the official flagship stores opened by various mobile phone brands in e-commerce channels such as Tmall and Jingdong, the reporter saw that many folding screen product sales have "1000+", and product-related comments are more than 10,000, but when asking mobile phone manufacturers including Xiaomi, Glory, etc., the shipment volume and stocking situation of folding screen mobile phones since they were launched, all parties said that there was no data to disclose.

Talking about the current production capacity of folding screen mobile phones, Yang Shu analyzed that it is necessary to look at the purpose of manufacturers to do folding screen mobile phones from two aspects, "It is a means to enhance their own brand, and the other is that the demand in the market itself is not large." She prefers to see the former as the main consideration of mobile phone manufacturers at present.

In this way, "manufacturers will not take the initiative to produce too much", Yang Shu told reporters, euphemistically understood that manufacturers will control the expenditure of advertising costs, after all, this purpose of production of folding screen mobile phones, but "lose money to make money".

After returning from the 2019 Bazhan interview, the reporter had a dialogue on the "flexible screen" with Sun Zhengmin, chief consultant of the Shenzhen Flat Panel Display Industry Association, when he saw that the China Display Cluster had broken the barriers of Samsung in OLED technology and scale mass production, and he had expected, "In less than 5 years, there is a possibility of leading the world." ”

3 years have passed, BOE, Visionox, Tianma and other display companies often tens of billions of scale, investment and construction of flexible display production lines, now in the screen mass production has long been not a problem, but focus on the downstream of the industrial chain, Sun Zhengmin found that there are few people around with folding screen mobile phones.

"I'm not optimistic about folding screen phones." When the reporter interviewed Sun Zhengmin on the evening of March 3, he said that he had proposed to take 150,000 yuan to his eighteen- and nineteen-year-old grandson to choose between "folding screen mobile phone" and "any mobile phone + an i-Pad", "the price is almost the same", he did not expect that the final choice of young people is still the latter.

Since the birth of folding screen mobile phones, high prices have always been an unavoidable topic. In addition, the characteristics of the large screen for ordinary users Sun Zhengmin, compared with the use of mobile terminal equipment, he feels that there are not many moments that really need to fold the screen mobile phone, "that is, when the business office, the folding screen mobile phone expands into a large screen, which will save some people from carrying multiple terminal devices." ”

Sun Zhengmin once saw a returnee using a folding screen mobile phone, and asked, "It didn't take a few months, there were already creases." In addition, he was not surprised that the focus of the above-mentioned people was "fashionable".

Yang Shu also saw a friend using Samsung's folding screen mobile phone during the Spring Festival this year, she asked about the other party's use of the feeling out of curiosity, only to hear the friend answer, "Bought back a total of three times opened, almost all together, as a normal straight phone in use." ”

For reasons such as cool fuselage and fashionable design, some users have purchased folding screen mobile phones, and Sun Zhengmin feels that in truly solving the basic needs of users for mobile phone products, various manufacturers have faced problems.

The future may be

It is understood that in the current folding screen mobile phone, due to the front cover material, it is divided into CPI (colorless polyimide) and UTT (ultra-thin glass) two types. Huawei folding screen mobile phones that break through 10,000 yuan at every turn have been complained about "plastic feeling" because the front cover of the screen uses CPI. "We all think plastic is a cheap thing." Yang Shu explained that material problems often add a "sense of cheapness" to such a high-priced and high-end product, which inevitably makes users feel "not worth it, not high-end".

Based on observation, Wang Xi feels that the next step in the folding screen mobile phone industry chain should be optimized around hardware reliability, such as ultra-thin glass UTT, hinge strength, and drop resistance.

Liu Xin has also experienced a manufacturer's folding screen mobile phone, after expanding the large screen, the App experience is just a simple and rough stretch display, there is no special optimization, the experience is not very good.

Two or three years backwards, folding screen mobile phones in the technology, product experience there are hard injuries, in Liu Xin's view, even if the screen, hinge and other key components level, has been able to better meet the flexible display, closure and hover of the product and other functions, but in the actual application scenarios, will still face some key problems such as App adaptation, content adaptation and so on.

"For example, horizontal folding, after the phone is opened, it should not be a simple stretch and enlargement of the content." Wang Xi also pointed out the problems in the software adaptability of folding screen mobile phones, and he suggested that manufacturers make full use of the large screen to produce more other functions, or let users get more information in the field of vision.

In view of the current reality that the Android software ecology is relatively scattered, Wang Xi mentioned that the folding screen products of various manufacturers want to achieve adaptation with the software side, which is an additional workload for the software content side, "and there is no unified standard", so that in the short term, the mobile phone manufacturers compete with each other, "the ecological collaboration between their respective software and content parties".

According to the current use of folding screen mobile phones, "the life of the display is indeed rapid progress." But Wang Xi analyzed that there are now few samples of users of such products, and some extreme use scenarios and environments have not been involved in a large number of cases, and there are still tests for screen vendors.

"The screen is ready." Yang Shu understands that the future of folding screen mobile phones must not rely on a single point of breakthrough, and the eyes must be turned to the entire industry chain. For example, how to improve the technical self-research ability of the terminal, or even better integrate key components, after the upstream supply of screen body, hinge, chip, battery and so on is better solved, whether the terminal manufacturer has formed a better software and hard integration program, so that the folding screen mobile phone is lighter, or outside the form, so that the user can be directly impressed in the interactive experience.

In Yang Shu's view, even if the manufacturers in the Android camp have a first-mover advantage in folding screen tactics, but in the development of innovative technologies and the supply integration of core components, Apple, which has more advantages, has not given up the folding screen mobile phone, in the future, whether Apple can make flexible screen technology and products present new possibilities, Yang Shu is quite looking forward to it.

(At the request of the interviewee, Yang Shu and Liu Xin are pseudonyms)