Qiu Baoxing, an academician of a science academy and former vice minister of housing and construction, issued an appeal at the 2022 NetEase Economist Annual Meeting that fuel motorcycles can be banned, but electric bicycles should not be banned. His reason for this call is to save energy and reduce carbon emissions. Academician Qiu Baoxing also deliberately stressed that all traffic management departments should not make mistakes, and should prohibit motorcycles with smokey butts, rather than banning electric vehicles.
The appeal of the academician made Oye bacteria like a stem in the throat, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development came to mix with the affairs of the transportation department, and it was indeed the lower limit for the show layman. Taking this topic to discuss with you, is it right to ban electricity on the grounds of "energy conservation and environmental protection and carbon emission reduction"? What is the scientific basis?
In the last century, motorcycles were a favorite of young people.
(Lei Feng riding a motorcycle in Tiananmen Square)
In 1985, Beijing became the first city in the country to ban motorcycles, when the two-stroke motorcycle smoked blue smoke is really not able to talk about the word environmental protection, so the introduction of the ban on motorcycle policy is also a decision to do environmental protection, the capital's trend has a strong demonstration effect, other provinces are adhering to the tradition of upward and downward effects, competing to imitate the introduction of the ban on motorcycles.
Facts-by-fact, there is no technical pollution on today's four-stroke motorcycles that existed in the two-stroke engine of that year, whether imported or domestic vehicles, in terms of environmental protection, they strictly follow the national emission standards.
You may be as indignant as Oye mushrooms when you see this - motorcycles have complete road documents, abide by traffic laws, and motorcycles are also a way of travel, why should they be so severely suppressed? Is it possible that motorcycles are legally produced and sold legally, and we Motorcycle friends who pay taxes legally should be "discharged" by this hat to deprive them of the right of way on the forbidden motorcycle section?
Let's start by carefully analyzing the problem of emissions.
The energy source for cars and motorcycles is fossil fuels such as gasoline, and the energy for electric vehicles is electricity. Although electric vehicles do not have exhaust emissions during driving, it does not mean that electric vehicles do not emit pollution.
From the perspective of the power generation structure in 2021:
In the first half of 2021, the national thermal power generation capacity was 2,826.2 billion kWh, accounting for 73.00%;
Hydropower generation was 482.67 billion kWh, accounting for 12.47%;
Wind power generation was 281.92 billion kWh, accounting for 7.28%;
Nuclear power generation was 195.09 billion kWh, accounting for 5.04%;
Solar power generation was 85.820 billion kWh, accounting for 2.22%.
From this data, it seems that the main source of electricity on the mainland is thermal power generation.
(Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, Huajing Industry Research Institute)
The widely circulated one-liter oil three-kilowatt-degree electricity must have been heard by everyone, and I will explain to you how this statement came about.
The energy of one kilowatt hour of electricity is 1000w of power for one hour and 3.6MJ, and the energy of three kilowatt-hours is 10.8MJ.
The calorific value of gasoline is 46MJ/kg, the density of gasoline is 0.75kg/L, and the calorific value of one liter of gasoline is 34.5MJ.
The efficiency of the motor is more than 90%, the gasoline engine is about 30%, and the one-liter gasoline is useful for 10.35MJ, which is basically equal to the useful work of three kilowatt-hours of electricity.
Generating three kilowatts of electricity, the average coal consumption is 0.96 kg, which we approximately see as one kilogram of coal.
Burn one kilogram of coal and emit 2.493 kilograms of carbon dioxide.
Burning one kilogram of gasoline emits 2.25 kilograms of carbon dioxide and burning one liter of gasoline emits 1.69 kilograms of carbon dioxide.
After compiling the emissions of electricity and gasoline, I looked at the energy consumption of electric vehicles and motorcycles for 100 kilometers under ideal operating conditions.
First, let's look at the new national standard electric vehicle.
It generally comes standard with a 350W motor, as well as a 48V12Ah battery or a 48V20Ah battery.
Taking the 48V12Ah electric vehicle as an example, its uniform average current is about 7.3A (motor power/ voltage = 350W / 48V), while the theoretical driving time is 1.64h (capacity size / current size = 12Ah / 7.3A), assuming that the average driving speed is 25km/h, then the theoretical mileage is 41km (theoretical driving time * speed = 1.64h * 25km / h).
So we can conclude that it takes 1.52 kWh to make the 48V12Ah electric vehicle run 100 kilometers, and according to the above energy consumption emission relationship, the electric vehicle needs to emit 0.8 kg of carbon dioxide after running 100 kilometers.
Let's compare the fuel consumption of the commuter scooter, Oyebacter has a Five-Sheep Honda NX125, its average fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is between 2.2 and 2.4 liters per 100 kilometers, and our compromise is 2.3 liters per 100 kilometers, according to the above energy consumption emission relationship, this small displacement motorcycle needs to emit 3.9 kg of carbon dioxide after running 100 kilometers.
According to the above analysis, the emissions of an ordinary commuter motorcycle are nearly 5 times that of ordinary electric vehicles (the above data are analyzed under ideal working conditions).
After analyzing the energy consumption, look at the ownership data of motorcycles and electric bicycles, and compare the total pollution level.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Security, the number of motor vehicles in the country will reach 395 million in 2021, of which 302 million are cars, accounting for more than three-quarters of the national motor vehicle ownership. Motorcycles took the second place, accounting for more than 20%, or more than 79 million.
According to a report by the China Industry Research Institute in October 2021, the annual sales volume of electric bicycles in the mainland exceeds 30 million, and the social ownership volume is close to 300 million.
The above data combined to judge that the emissions brought by the total amount of domestic electric vehicles and the total number of motorcycles are not different, and there is no difference in the situation that the electric vehicle regulatory policy is not perfect, and there are a large number of unregistered and non-legal and compliant electric bicycles.
If considered in a non-ideal environment, electric vehicles have power transportation losses, battery charging losses, and the efficiency of the mainland's current major thermal power generation is not 100%.
Motorcycle pollution in the eyes of the public almost only exhaust emissions, but electric bicycles also have a problem is the pollution caused by batteries.
At present, the main types of electric vehicle batteries are lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries, which contain a variety of heavy metals and electrolytes. The service life of electric vehicle batteries generally does not exceed three years, because most production enterprises do not recycle, consumers can only throw away waste batteries or sell to waste recycling stations. The waste recycling station only dumps the acid in the battery and takes out the metal lead to reuse, and the heavy metals such as zinc and chromium contained in the acid are very polluting to the land, groundwater sources and the environment.
In contrast, motorcycles, with the update of national standard emission standards, motorcycle exhaust emissions, fuel evaporation recovery, waste oil recovery and other problems are actively responding to national standards. And motorcycles, because they must be licensed, are more mature and comprehensive than the management measures of non-compliant electric vehicles.
In addition to environmental protection issues, "high-risk" seems to have become an excuse for lazy government and banning motorcycles.
Many experts believe that motorcycles have a high risk factor, belong to "meat-wrapped iron", etc., and have long publicized the negative impact of motorcycles on a wide range. On the issue of domestic motorcycle accidents, Ouye bacteria has compiled several sets of data and related reports from the National Bureau of Statistics, which you can understand.
In recent years, the state has strengthened the supervision of motorcycle riders and sales manufacturers from the perspective of regulations and supervision, reducing the possibility of traffic accidents from the source and process. With the increasing number of new motorcycles, the number of motorcycle accidents in mainland China has not increased significantly.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of motorcycle traffic accidents in mainland China from 2014 to 2020 showed only a slight fluctuation growth trend. In 2014, the number of motorcycle traffic accidents nationwide was 40,185, and in 2018, it reached 45,868, a new high in recent years. In 2019 and 2020, although the number of newly registered motorcycles has increased significantly, under the national new national standard policy and strict traffic safety management, the number of motorcycle traffic accidents has not increased significantly, but has remained at about 45,000.
Since 2016, although the number of injuries caused by motorcycle traffic accidents has increased slightly, the number of deaths caused by them has shown a downward trend, indicating that under the strict management of the state on motorcycle riding, the effect is remarkable.
Among the ownership of mainland motorcycles, there are not many medium and large displacement models that are more entertainment-oriented, as for how much? Oyers bacteria did not query the relevant data, but on the occasion of the phenomenon that the call to oppose the ban on motorcycles has not been taken seriously by the government, it can be seen that our motorcycle enthusiast group is not large enough to attract widespread attention from society.
If you really want to look at the prohibition of a certain means of transportation or travel mode from the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction, why not consider the car more? The rate of flight attendants in cars is getting higher and higher, the car starts with a displacement of 1000cc, and the number of cars in China is still four times that of motorcycles...
At this point, I think motorcycles and electric cars are incomparable.
Purely discussing pollution, electric vehicles are not zero emissions, and because there is no heavy pollution caused by the perfect recycling regulatory system for batteries, the results of motorcycles compared with electric bicycles have yet to be examined.
Purely on safety, electric vehicles are still in the stage of large-scale governance of licensing, buying insurance, and popularizing a helmet and a belt, while motorcycles, as vehicles with the same control methods as motor vehicles, are relatively more mature and comprehensive.
So in summary, is the "one-size-fits-all" ban on Morocco really scientific and reasonable? The truth is not clear, and we welcome our friends to express their opinions and discuss together, and offer advice on how to govern the motorcycle instead of banning it.