Where is the next global confrontation zone after Ukraine? Shi Qiping: China must be reunified! The United States still regards China as its strongest rival and concentrates its forces on dealing with it, but Russia is not afraid.
The dramatic development of the situation in Ukraine seems to be due to Russia's forcible eating of two sons (the two pro-Russian states in Which Ukraine was recognized by Putin as an independent country and sent troops to be peacekeeped), the dumb eating of Yellow Lian by Germany and Europe (nord Stream 2 natural gas could not be passed), the Loss of the Ukrainian Authorities and the loss of troops (neither entering NATO nor the loss of two states), and the United States, although exhausted but did not take advantage of many advantages, but may further manifest the contradictions between the Western camps. For Biden, although the development of the situation was unexpected by Putin's sudden move, it did not affect his original global strategic layout.
Since taking office on January 20, 2021, Biden has launched a very clear strategic layout, first by releasing the Nord Stream 2 project and talking with Putin to appease Europe and Russia, secondly restarting the Iran nuclear agreement unilaterally withdrawn by Trump to stabilize the situation in the Middle East, and then withdrawing troops from Afghanistan under the fierce criticism of all parties, ending 20 years of war to stop losses, and carrying out strategic contraction on 3 fronts, with the purpose of concentrating all forces against China.
At present, Afghanistan has completed the withdrawal of troops; the negotiations on the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement are in full swing, and if there is no accident, a consensus can be reached at the end of February to restart the nuclear agreement; although the situation between Europe and Russia has changed, if it can be temporarily stabilized, then the next strategic focus will be moved to the western Pacific.
The current global situation is a power structure that I call a "post-Cold War" situation. The Cold War (1943-1991) was a sharp confrontation between the Western camp led by the United States and the centralist system of planning with China and the Soviet Union as the core; in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and the United States entered the post-Cold War period (1991 to 2000) after becoming the only superpower in the world; and then, in the new century and more than 20 years, although the United States was still a great power, its national strength had begun to decline, Russia's national strength recovered under Putin's administration, and China rose strongly, so China and Russia, which were oppressed and bullied by the United States, began to counterattack on the Eastern European Front and the Western Pacific Front, respectively At this time, the offensive and defensive positions were transposed, and the United States and the West became the defensive sides, and the offensive and defensive confrontations converged on Ukraine on the western front and Taiwan on the eastern front.
From the perspective of US strategy, it is not appropriate to confront China and Russia at the same time on the eastern and western fronts; and in the long run, Russia is not enough to be afraid, and China has huge and unfathomable potential, so it should give priority to full response.
From another point of view, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation cannot coexist at the same time as the national territorial sovereignty has not yet been completed, so the complete settlement of the Taiwan issue is logically an indispensable necessary condition for realizing national rejuvenation. Of course, what is more important and crucial is the full condition, that is, sufficient strength and full preparation for resolving the Taiwan issue. Obviously, the concept of time must be set in the overall strategy [of China's settlement of the Taiwan issue].
The United States will face an unprecedentedly difficult choice: In the face of China's increasingly strong anti-access and regional resistance capabilities, will the United States fight or back down? Fighting hard is risky, and concessions impact hegemony. If the optimal solution no longer exists, is there a second best solution? The confrontation between China and the United States in Taiwan is therefore bound to be a great game of wit and wit with great force.
(Source: Taiwan Media Author: Shi Qiping, Senior Commentator of Phoenix Satellite TV)
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