This time the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is really a series of twists and turns, thinking that it is going to fight, but Russia has announced its withdrawal of troops; thinking that it will not fight, it suddenly started to work again.
In fact, as early as January this year, things were a bit abnormal, and the European and American media kept blowing the wind, saying that Russia was going to invade Ukraine, saying that there was a nose and an eye. Russia was confused that it had no intention of invading Ukraine at all. Even if there is, it is a top military secret, how does the Western media know?
The United States controls the direction of world public opinion, and except for Germany, the media in other countries in Western Europe are basically under the control of Wall Street. It doesn't matter whether Russia has plans to invade Ukraine, the United States says there is, that is.
Of course, Russia ignored the fire that the European and American media had set up, but Germany and France could not sit still, and hurried to mediate, fearing that the flames of war would burn in Europe. Germany and France most want peace in Europe, because they are the backbone of the European Union and the vested interests, and if there is really going to be a war, the outflow of European capital will be deeply affected by Germany and France.
Bizarrely, no matter how others mixed it up, Britain and the United States were still convinced that Russia would invade Ukraine, and the time was set precisely on February 16.
Why is the United States hyping up a fictitious thing? That's because even if Russia doesn't plan to attack Ukraine, they have to force Russia to take action, and as long as Ukraine continues to challenge Russia's bottom line, Russia will definitely do it.
As for why the time is accurate to February 16th, I think it is the United States that is blind. As early as the beginning of January, US President Biden said that Russia would fight Ukraine after New Year's Day, and then there was no such thing; Biden said that Russia would fight Ukraine in early February, and it did not happen; then it was February 16, which was the third time Biden made a prediction.
Everything is not more than three, so on February 16, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, and many people believed it! Ukraine's top 100 billionaires have almost all run away overnight, and even Serbia has begun hoarding goods in response to the disruption of supply chains that conflict can bring.
But the February 16 clashes did not take place. Despite the constant provocations of Ukraine, Russia resisted. Russia's temper has always been grumpy, and this time it was able to endure in response to the proposal that no war should take place during the Winter Olympics.
Until the end of the Winter Olympics, Putin can finally let go and fight back. Russia played a trick to lure the snake out of the hole, announced the withdrawal of troops, Ukraine this humble actually took the initiative to provoke Russia, which let Russia seize the morality, ukraine first, I am just self-defense. The Russians killed a rifle, and in just one day, Ukraine's military strength was basically paralyzed.
The conflict has already occurred, and under the glue, analyzing the gains and losses of all sides, I think there are three big losers and three big winners.
Let's start with the three biggest losers in this conflict.
Ukraine
Ukraine is undoubtedly the biggest loser, the domestic economic situation is in tatters, and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are at risk of loss.
Ukraine, the second-largest inheritor of the former Soviet Union's legacy, now has the second-to-last GDP per capita of the 15 former Soviet unions. Fast forward to 1992, when Ukraine was four times richer than the continent's per capita GDP. In the past two years, the mainland's per capita GDP has reached $10,000, which is three times that of Ukraine.
Ukraine's economy is deteriorating and the country is in turmoil, and many Ukrainians have chosen to flee. According to statistics, from 1992 to 2021, the population of Ukraine decreased by nearly 10 million, which shows the extent of population loss.
Ukraine was originally poor and poor, but the days can still be lived, good to have the reputation of "European granary", rich in resources, low prices, many Western Europeans also like to go to Ukraine for vacation or pension. But since the pro-Russian president was ousted and the comedian-turned-president came to power, Ukraine has become brainlessly pro-American and anti-Russian. He provoked Russia several times, was pressed to the ground and rubbed without learning a lesson, and was bent on acting as a pawn for the West against Russia.
A few years ago, Ukraine lost the Crimean Peninsula. This time, the two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, are most likely not able to be saved. Coupled with the collapse of the domestic economy and the flight of the people, Ukraine is bound to be seriously injured, and the biggest loser has not run.
Countries of Western Europe
The European Union, or western European countries, is also the big loser of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which is why Germany and France wanted to mediate in the first place.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has caused three injuries to the countries of Western Europe.
The first is that Germany was pressured to halt the Nord Stream 2 project. In this way, Western European countries will not have this channel to buy Russian natural gas at a good price, and can only pinch their noses and endure the pain to buy high-priced gas from the United States. As the situation intensifies and international energy prices rise steadily, Western European countries will pay a huge economic price for this.
Secondly, due to the European trend shock caused by Ukraine, many European safe-haven capital has fled the European Union, most of which have gone to the United States. Another part came to China, and in the eyes of these safe-haven capitals, China is safer and more valuable than the United States, which of course makes the United States very unhappy. Capital is risk-averse, and it is unknown when these European capitals will return after they leave Europe. It is well known that if the situation in Ukraine is not stabilized, more capital will flee. This is nothing short of worse for the economies of Western Europe, which are already left and right.
Finally, the Russian military threat theory triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will force Western European countries to increase defense military spending, further worsening already stretched finances. However, I am afraid that the United States will take advantage of the situation to increase the number of troops stationed in Europe and strengthen its control over the countries of Western Europe, and will the countries of Western Europe not become "vassals" of the United States at that time?
Russia
Russia is also a loser. Although on the battlefield, Russia has been invincible and fierce, but in the national situation, the pressure is very high.
The United States took the lead in sanctioning Russia, and then a bunch of U.S. allies followed suit, which are basically economic powers, such as Japan, the United Kingdom, and so on. Russia's external environment was difficult and harsh, almost at its worst in history.
Russia is extremely dependent on energy, has the title of "big Saudi Arabia", and now as soon as it is sanctioned, energy exports are immediately much less, which is the lifeblood of Russia's economy. The United States is to hit the door and force Russia to submit.
Fortunately, there is China, and before the Winter Olympics, the two countries reached a series of cooperation agreements, including Russia's regulations to expand natural gas exports to China. With China here, this time Russia has the confidence not to back down and to the end.
These are the three major losers of this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and Ukraine naturally loses the most.
There are losers and winners, so let's analyze the three winners in this conflict.
United States
The United States has worked hard to provoke trouble, but of course the purpose is not pure. At present, everything is proceeding according to the script, and the United States has benefited greatly from this incident.
Why did the United States provoke the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? The U.S. economy is struggling, and the domestic inflation index has reached its highest value in decades, which has greatly affected the consumption desire of the American people, which is very unfavorable to the US economy, which is dominated by the tertiary industry.
The U.S. stock market is currently at an all-time high, and once the Fed adopts a hawkish contraction policy in order to control inflation, the U.S. stock market will plummet if it does not get it right. Then the Democratic Party will be miserable, the midterm elections and the 2024 presidential election will undoubtedly lose, the former president will come back, this picture the Democratic Party does not dare to think.
But if a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, it will be different, and the safe-haven funds from all over Europe will flock to the United States to take over the US stock market, and also allow the Fed to shear a wave of European wool when it shrinks its balance sheet.
In fact, the essence of this Wudong crisis is that the United States cannot cut China's leeks, and can only turn to the EU to harvest. Although the EU is an ally, in the context of the stock game, it is a very realistic choice for dead friends not to die poor.
The purpose of the United States was achieved, and a large amount of European capital poured into the United States and the American stock market, and the American stock market rose sharply on the 24th.
China
China is also a big winner, mainly for two reasons.
First, many safe-haven capital in Europe did not go to the United States, but reversed direction to China. Over the past period, the RMB exchange rate has been strong. From 16:00 on February 18, the offshore renminbi suddenly rose sharply by about 200 basis points against the US dollar, once the highest value since May 2018. Looking at the session, European capital quickly bought Chinese government bonds to hedge after the European trading session opened at 16:00 on February 18, which invisibly led to an increase in RMB demand and a rapid rise in the exchange rate in the offshore market.
In addition, SWIFT data shows that in December last year, the renminbi accounted for 2.7% of global payments, and in January, this proportion soared to 3.2%, a record high! It is believed that the proportion of RMB payments in the world in February will be further improved.
What are the characteristics of capital? Where there is a crisis, it will leave where it is strong, and where it is strong, it will gather wherever it is. Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, capital will not be like the Western media to deceive themselves, who is strong and who is weakening, capital is the most sensitive.
The inflow of European capital into China is obviously more optimistic about China's investment environment. After all, capital is profit-seeking, and if the United States has better and higher room for profit returns, these European capitals will not hesitate to go to the United States.
Second, China's defensive pressure has been greatly reduced, and the United States is "fighting on two fronts" and has no way to concentrate its forces on dealing with us.
The United States created the Wudong crisis and forced Russia to showdown in the Wudong region, and since then the Wudong issue has become a powder keg for Europe. As long as the United States still maintains NATO, this powder keg will permanently involve its energy, so that the United States will have to face the strategic dilemma of two-front operation, and China's strategic pressure on the United States will be alleviated to a certain extent.
Therefore, China is also the winner of this event, perhaps more than the United States. The United States is heartbroken, but there is nothing to do.
Russia is both a loser and a winner, and although the external environment is not good, it deserves the same thing.
First of all, Russia has defended its bottom line and basically crushed Ukraine's intention to join NATO. In the future, the EU should not consider allowing Ukraine to join NATO unless the EU is willing to take a stone and drop itself in the foot.
Russia is fighting Against Ukraine, and the United States has never dared to send a single soldier except for verbal sanctions. Such an approach has dealt a heavy blow to the international prestige of the United States and damaged the international image of the United States.
Finally, the two oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk do have a certain probability of joining Russia, and for Russia, why not expand its territory?
Therefore, Russia has also gained a lot of things, as long as it can withstand this wave of crisis, the future development space will be opened, and it is not impossible to make a comeback.
Of course, I sincerely hope for world peace, less conflict and more tenderness. We do not want US hegemonism, we want to build a community with a shared future for mankind, develop together in a coordinated manner, and move towards the future together!