Tell us about my basic judgment on the situation in Ukraine.
Since about 5 a.m. local time on February 24, Russian troops have launched special military operations in Ukraine, and it has been more than 30 hours. In these 30 hours, all kinds of battlefield information were overwhelming, mixed with true and false, and people could not feel their heads. But after such a long time, the judgment of the basic mode of the Russian military's combat operation should be able to come out a little. To put it bluntly, it is more than a day in the past, how did the Russian army fight? What will happen next to this special military operation?
Judgments must have a basis, and the basis must be conclusive. There are two conclusive bases on which I can now judge: one is that the total number of Russian troops participating in this special military operation is about 200,000 people, which will be a little biased but not too bad; the second is that so far, the two sides have not declared any major cities lost or controlled by Russian forces. Then based on these two facts, we can have a basic judgment on the mode of operation of the Russian army.
First of all, it can be determined that the Russian army is no longer taking the traditional ground push-type operation, nor is it a ground offensive and defensive operation such as competing for the main points of urban transportation. The basis is that from the current situation, the battles that have broken out are distributed in multiple directions and in multiple locations, and many of them are "frog jump" combat. And after 30 hours of fighting, there were no reports of Russian seizures of cities. Obviously, Russia is not using ground penetration, let alone ground pushing operations, otherwise it would have taken some cities long ago. In addition, judging from Russia's military strength, if he wants to control a large area and seize and control some large cities, his troops are obviously insufficient. In ground combat, the most depleting forces are controlling cities and maintaining rear lines of communication and supply. The Russian army does not have enough troops, and it is clear that it cannot divide its troops more in this regard.
So, how is the Russian army fighting? The first step should be to paralyze the opponent. This step is similar to traditional combat, mainly a kind of "point and hole" type of combat, precision firepower strike. Now it seems that the Russian side has basically completed this part of the task. Now the Russian army has announced the results of the battle, destroying how many airfields, how many anti-aircraft missile positions, how many radar stations, how many command centers, and so on.
So what should the next mode of operation be? I think it should be the capture and control of the main points. This so-called point will be much smaller than the size of the city, is there a flat-push operation on the ground? Yes. It should be limited to the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine. Because in this place, Russia has declared recognition of the "independence" of the two republics. But the two republics previously controlled only about 30 percent of their administrative borders. Since they have been recognized as "independent" and have signed a "treaty of friendship and cooperation", it is inevitable to complete 100% occupation and control of this area, which requires flat thrust operations on the ground. However, this part of the operation can be completed by the local local armed forces, and the Russian army only needs to provide corresponding technical resources and fire support.
In other directions, the focus should not be on encircling the other side's heavy groups, because that would be time-consuming and costly, and would easily cause large casualties. As long as the opponent's important military nodes are paralyzed, the other side loses its combat effectiveness. Of course, coupled with some psychological warfare battles, it is the best result to let the other side take the initiative to surrender.
So what will be the purpose of the current operation in the direction of Kiev, Kharkov, etc.? One is to control the movements of the Ukrainian ground forces and not allow them to effectively withdraw, assemble and complete new operational deployments; the other is to complete the corresponding political tasks. That is the problem of "de-Nazismization" that Putin previously said. That's why the Russians are fighting in the direction of Kiev. The first thing to do in the direction of Kiev is to control a key point, that is, the airfield. In this way, the Russian army has a basic support for military operations and then military operations. Will the following action enter the center of Kiev? It should be, but it shouldn't be the way cities fight. It is not to occupy the entire city, only to send the corresponding troops to complete the corresponding tasks, such as capture tasks, etc., and then withdraw after completion. This does not consume much troop strength, and it can also ensure the flexibility of front-line combat troops. As a result, enthusiasts who want to see the "siege strategy" may be disappointed.
The next three most critical questions are: First, how will the Russian side end this war? This is the most critical issue. The second is what will the United States and NATO do? Don't look at the fact that they are now saying that they will never send troops, maybe they really will not send troops, but the possibility of not interfering militarily is very small. Only the possibility of being too late to intervene and not being able to intervene does not exist, and there is no possibility of intervention at all. Interventions can take many forms, either on the face or secretly under the table. But without intervention, this is not in line with the basic characteristics of the United States and NATO. The third issue is the question of time. For Russia, this military operation is delayed. After all, the Russian army has limited troops, and the target should also be limited. If it is dragged on, all kinds of problems and weaknesses will be exposed. Once the United States and NATO have time, they will also complete their deployment and take advantage of the situation to intervene militarily. That would be dangerous. So the key issue is time.
This is my basic view of the current war situation. A friend will ask you if your opinion is reliable? Analysis and judgment is not fortune telling, only for everyone's reference. Before, my judgment on "whether there will be a big fight in the direction of Ukraine" was wrong. Therefore, what I am saying can only be used for your reference. #外媒: Russian forces approaching the Ukrainian capital from both sides ##What kind of shock Russia will suffer in the worst case##美媒称寻求加入北约乌克兰两头得罪 #
