In recent years, new energy vehicles have not only achieved rapid growth in the mileage level, but also made great progress in charging facilities and intelligence, and have come to the golden era of development.
However, in the face of the rapid iterative upgrading of the new energy vehicle industry, there are still many users who want to buy new energy vehicles are still waiting and seeing, after all, looking back on the past, new energy vehicles are much faster than the previous fuel vehicle era technology evolution, a new car just bought this year, next year may become the old model, the mileage has increased a lot, it is inevitable that there will be "wait" ideas.
So, will the mileage of new energy vehicles continue to grow in the past?
To explain this problem, we first need to figure out what are the core factors that determine the range.
Leaving aside those small factors, in general, among the factors that can determine the mileage of pure electric vehicles, the size of battery capacity is the most critical indicator.
If the battery capacity of the new energy vehicle is like a reservoir filled with water, then the energy consumption performance of the whole vehicle is the speed of water release, and the mileage is ultimately reflected in the time of water release.
Then it can be easily seen that the reservoir with a large capacity can naturally hold more water, even if the speed of releasing water is slightly faster (energy consumption performance is not good), but as long as the reservoir capacity is large enough, it still takes a long time (longer mileage) to empty the water in the reservoir.
Seeing this, some people will definitely ask questions, if the energy consumption is improved well enough, then can't it also improve the battery life?
This idea is of course no problem in theory, but the power consumption is actually like fuel consumption, due to the reason of overcoming various resistances, there is a "wall", it is impossible to go down indefinitely, and the difficulty will become more and more difficult.
Nowadays, a new energy vehicle, including the treatment of wind resistance and energy recovery logic, has been done well enough, and the space for further improvement is really limited.
From the perspective of the industrial pattern, at present, in order to increase the battery capacity and improve the mileage, pure electric vehicles have developed structural upgrade multi-discharge batteries, and technical iterations to increase the energy density of the battery body, two core ideas.
However, whether it is to improve energy density or structural innovation to achieve the improvement of battery capacity, which method, in essence, is the behavior of making the battery bigger.
Since the core problem lies in the battery, we may wish to take a look at the current development progress of batteries and new energy vehicles, and naturally there will be some judgment.
At the structural level, starting from CTP technology, the integration of the entire battery pack has shown an increasing trend, the latest CTC / CBC integrated electric chassis technology, has integrated the battery in the chassis, compared with the past can further reduce the waste of space, but also paid the cost of loss of repairability.
From the perspective of the development level of the battery body, the current energy density of the battery is no longer as fast as in the past, on the one hand, the development of chemical materials is limited, high nickel and low cobalt and even no cobalt technology route, in a period of time, will be a costly solution, and like Tesla's newly developed 46800 full-pole ear battery, the effect is remarkable, but the universal level does not meet the needs of all models, especially the performance of the charging and discharging current can not be perfectly adapted.
Under the premise that the development of material chemistry has not achieved a revolutionary breakthrough, the current pure electric vehicles have been in a good balance point in terms of cost, mass production, consistency, safety and other dimensions.
In the future, although the battery energy density will definitely increase further, the corresponding cost will also increase, and it will cost a high fee to obtain it, and the advantage is not obvious at the cost-effective level.
On the other hand, putting aside the battery industry, only talking about the use level, the current mileage of a newly launched new energy vehicle is more than 500 kilometers, and the core products that apply the latest platform technology have a working range of more than 700 kilometers, for the bicycle commuting distance, it has been able to meet the one-way 300 kilometers of point-to-point round-trip, in fact, it has met the actual needs of the vast majority of users.
Seeing this, in fact, our conclusion has been relatively clear, in the future, although there is still room for further improvement in the mileage level of electric vehicles, the increase is no longer as large as before, and there may be problems such as high cost, loss of maintenance, etc., coupled with the sharp increase in the price of chemical materials, it is very difficult to achieve affordable replacement for existing models through "etc."
The evolution of new energy vehicles in the future may become more and more digital products, such as smartphones or graphics cards, and higher performance means more expensive prices.
Therefore, if you are the "waiting party" of the new energy vehicle, then I suggest that you still have less hesitation, as long as the card starts at the beginning of the release of the new product, avoiding the "49 years into the national army", the probability of blood loss is very low.