Tesla's 4680 battery has finally begun mass production. At the end of last week, the electric vehicle manufacturer, which extended its business upstream of the industry chain, announced on its official account that the production of 4680 batteries had exceeded 1 million units in January this year.
Hundreds of Tesla employees gathered in front of a pilot factory on Kato Road in Fremont, California, to cheer on the stage victory.
The 4680 battery is Tesla's self-developed battery, which was first released at the "Battery Day" event held in late September 2020, and its performance indicators such as single energy, charging and replacing power are higher, which is a great attraction for Tesla's next generation of products.
However, similar to technologies such as autonomous driving, the mass production of the 4680 battery has been repeatedly delayed.
Although before the "battery day", Tesla CEO Elon Musk had said that the battery would not be mass-produced in 2022, but according to the earliest plan, the battery should have started small-scale mass production last year. Musk also said that the relevant production capacity can reach 100GWH by the end of 2021, but then he extended this goal to the end of 2022 - the progress is obviously lagging behind.
Musk will inevitably push the mass production of the 4680 battery to the car. According to the plan, in the first quarter of this year, the Model Y equipped with 4680 batteries will be delivered to users, and the 4680 will be used as a supplement to the existing batteries to help Tesla achieve higher production and sales.
It should be pointed out that although the 4680 battery is Tesla's self-developed, the production is open to upstream suppliers in order to achieve capacity expansion at the fastest speed. Earlier, Tesla's earliest battery supplier Panasonic announced that it would start producing 4680 batteries in 2023, and was already expanding the factory. Earlier, there was news that Tesla was also looking for partners in 4680 batteries in China, and in addition to Panasonic, Ningde Times, LG Chem, etc. were all negotiators.
Yield increased from 20% to 80%
4680 battery, diameter 46 mm, height 80 mm, larger than the current market of single battery size, high energy, Tesla also tried to cancel the battery at both ends of the polar ear and other ways in the design, so that the energy density of the battery has been improved to a certain extent.
However, from the laboratory to the mass production of products, there are still many problems to be overcome. From the release of products in 2020 to the production of 1 million units in 2022, efficient as Tesla is also somewhat inadequate.
At the earnings report meeting held in late January 2021, Musk said that the 4680 battery will begin mass production that year, and the production capacity level may reach 100GWH by the end of the year. He also pointed out that the overall production status of the battery is running at a low speed, but the speed will gradually increase in the future.
At that time, there were rumors that Tesla would produce a small number of cars with 4680 batteries that year, but the model had not yet been determined. It is also reported that Tesla is working closely with Partners such as Panasonic and LG Chem to develop 4680 batteries to achieve mass production as soon as possible.
At a earnings briefing in July 2021, Musk stressed that the reliability of the 4680 battery has been verified, passed the "equivalent" 1 million miles of testing, and that Tesla has a large number of equipment for mass production of the battery. But at that time, Musk had changed his mouth, "Most likely, by the end of next year, we will reach a capacity of 100GWh per year." ”
From the timeline, Tesla is likely to start mass production of 4680 batteries in the fourth quarter of 2021, and 1 million is just a start. In early 2022, Musk revealed that the Model Y is already being made with 4680 batteries at the Texas factory, but the vehicle still needs to be certified before it can be delivered, but "this should be soon."
At the Earnings Conference in January, Drew Baglino, Tesla's senior vice president of engineering, said Tesla already had a small number of trial-produced 4680 batteries at its Fremont plant, with the goal of achieving 10GWh of capacity first. In terms of capacity layout, he said that the Texas plant will fully produce 4680 batteries, and the annual production capacity will exceed the Fremont plant, which is expected to exceed 100GWh.
According to the analysis of people familiar with Tesla, the main challenge of the 4680 battery lies in the manufacturing process, and in the past year, Tesla has increased the yield rate of the 4680 battery from 20% to 80%, indicating that the technology is basically starting from scratch. "The process idea of the 4680 battery is similar to that of a square, but the physical structure is a cylinder, and the manufacturing process cannot be based on either an existing square or an existing small cylinder."
Find a partner
Although Tesla develops and produces its own batteries, it is also actively seeking external cooperation.
In January this year, according to the Nikkei Shimbun, Panasonic plans to start mass production of 4680 large-capacity batteries for Tesla in early 2023, "At present, Panasonic is expanding its factory in Wakayama Prefecture and introducing new equipment to mass-produce the battery, and the new investment will be as high as 80 billion yen (contract 704 million US dollars)." ”
It can be referred to that the factory is expected to have an annual production capacity of 10GWh, which is equivalent to the battery demand of 150,000 electric vehicles, accounting for about 20% of Panasonic's current production capacity – from this point of view, Tesla's reserve of 100GWh of battery capacity is roughly equivalent to preparing for the demand for 1.5 million electric vehicles.
In fact, not only Panasonic, Tesla has been negotiating in many ways in China to find a partner manufacturer of 4680 batteries. In addition to Panasonic, including CATL and LG Chem, they are also in Tesla's list of negotiators. Previously, it was also rumored that Ewell Lithium energy may also cooperate with Tesla, but after hours on February 21, Ewell Lithium can debunk rumors about it.
Insiders familiar with the power battery industry pointed out that for battery companies, entering the Tesla industry chain through 4680 batteries is a good opportunity to rewrite the industry pattern. 4680 battery performance is better, the cost is lower, Tesla is rapidly promoting product iteration, and throughout the entire market, in addition to Tesla, BMW, Ningde era is also actively deploying large cylindrical batteries, the basic trend has been determined.
It is worth mentioning that the development of 4680 batteries does not mean abandoning the current supply system. Musk repeatedly mentioned at the earnings meeting that Tesla will still increase battery procurement from Panasonic, LG Chem and Cataline Era, and "warn" that there will be a large battery supply gap in 2022 and beyond.
From the quantitative point of view, 1 million 4680 batteries are not large, the scale of being able to load the car is also very limited, even if it is in cooperation with the upstream factories of the industrial chain, it is difficult to pull the volume to a higher level in the short term, so it is necessary to maintain the current cooperation.
Self-developed batteries are Tesla's long-term strategy. Musk has previously said that self-developed batteries will affect Tesla's long-term production, especially for electric truck Semi, electric pickup truck Cybertruck and electric sports car Roadster. In fact, the 4680 battery will be the first to be installed on the model of the runner, helping Tesla achieve a higher level of growth.
Since Tesla's sales began to climb, the supply of batteries has been stretched. In the early years, Model 3 once fell into the "production capacity hell", and although Tesla's overall production and sales growth rate was strong in the past one or two years, it was still subject to the supply of batteries. According to Tesla's long-term development plan, the average annual production and sales growth should reach about 50%, and the supply of partners alone obviously cannot meet the requirements.
More critically, completely dependent on battery suppliers, Tesla will still be in a relatively passive position, there is not enough space in terms of delivery time, price, etc., Tesla cut into the upstream battery industry, but also intends to carry out commercial checks and balances, for their own lower costs.
Original title: 4680 battery finally mass production Tesla expansion is in progress
Source: 21st Century Business Herald