Wen 丨 reliable two-dimensional, author 丨 hash chai
"Lilith's 'Apocalypse of Eden' is gone, the second dimension is not issued, the stylization is not prominent, and the project is suspended first..."
Just after the end of the year, in the pulse and multiple game industry groups, the two-dimensional projects of lilith and other manufacturers were shelved, and the screenshots of the team's living water were widely disseminated. Within a few days, netizens used divergent thinking to turn the original words into this:
, the second dimension, cyberpunk, Cthulhu, urban weirdness, and doomsday wasteland are all not issued.
To put it mildly, the speculation that "this year's two-dimensional games have no version number" is rampant in the arguments of "pure rumors" and "seems to be reasonable".
The "two-dimensional versionless theory" also brought two discussions: if the game has a serious Japanese wind (there is a lot of Japanese content), or if it is first overseas and then domestic, it will most likely not have a version number. Guo Guo, a publisher of a two-dimensional placement card, believes that "the opportunity for two-dimensional games in China is only the national style theme." ”
If the news is true, the two-dimensional game is likely to face a "situation where overseas and national style can choose one or the other". This will be a punch in the face of quadratic games.
To be sure, 2022 will be a tough year for two-dimensional games. There are early omens before the storm comes, turning over the flow performance of domestic two-dimensional games in 2021, it can be found that even if the popularity of two-dimensional games was very high last year, even if "Original God" attracted gold globally and large manufacturers continued to bet, 2021 is indeed a small year that belongs to the two-dimensional game - the new game flow is weak, 80% of the game flow is reduced, the phenomenon of eating the old is serious, the works of cutting-edge manufacturers are shelved, the old manufacturers are getting more and more biased, and the homogenization of the gameplay art is serious...
It's time to revisit domestic two-dimensional games.
"Flow overview": the growth of the second dimension beats the market, and the original god is the only winner
In 2021, there will be 62 two-dimensional games with an annual turnover of more than 10 million, with a total turnover of 37.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.9% year-on-year.
If only domestic revenue is counted, it will be 22.4 billion yuan in 2021 and 21.4 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of only 1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.67%, lower than the 6.51% overall domestic revenue growth rate of self-developed games announced by the Game Work Committee in 2021.
Although it is shocking, it is true that the domestic revenue of two-dimensional games has actually dragged down the revenue growth rate of the game industry.
Even, whether it is domestic revenue or global scope, most of the growth in 21 years has come from a game, "Original God", and it is not an exaggeration to say that it is the only winner.
In 2021, the overseas + domestic flow of "Original God" was 15.35 billion yuan, accounting for 41% of the total flow in 2021. The domestic revenue of "Original God" is 7.37 billion yuan, accounting for 32.6% of the domestic part of the revenue of all secondary games.
The overseas + domestic revenue of "Original God" increased by 10.5 billion yuan compared with 2020; the domestic flow increased by 4.899 billion yuan compared with 2020. If you remove "Original God", the other 61 games will have a turnover of 21.7 billion yuan in 2021, which is 2.5 billion yuan less than 24.2 billion yuan in 2020. Just look at the domestic revenue in 2021, the second-dimensional flow of 15 billion yuan is 3.9 billion yuan less than the 18.9 billion yuan in 2020.
Human tragedies and joys are not the same, and such a gap comes from two aspects:
On the one hand, "Original God" has maintained a stable content update in terms of good basic quality, and the addition and reproduction of individual hot characters have greatly driven the growth of flowing water, and to a certain extent, absorbed the time and income of other two-dimensional games.
On the other hand, traditional manufacturers such as Tencent NetEase are difficult to produce two-dimensional explosions, and the new works of emerging manufacturers such as Eagle Horn, Scattered Explosion, and Lilith have not yet been launched in development, and the overall decline of mid-waist manufacturers has led to the overall poor growth of two-dimensional games last year.
What remains unchanged is that the head effect of the TOP10 is still strong.
The "One Super" in "One Super and Many Strong" completely replaced the "Yin and Yang Division" from the "Original God", and the total flow of the 2nd to 9th places was 15.49 billion yuan, which was about 15.3 billion yuan of the "Original God".
The two new games that entered the TOP10 stream are "Magic Tower" and "Idol Dream Festival 2", replacing "Slam Dunk Master" and "Food Language", and in the TOP10 flow game, except for "Naruto", which increased by 150 million yuan year-on-year, other games shrank by a total of 2.2 billion yuan.
The year-on-year contraction of the game revenue of the top 10 flow is a microcosm of the general environment last year, and the revenue reduction is still the key word in the games below the top 10 flow.
"Two-dimensional small year": The threshold of over 100 million has become higher, and the old game has entered a period of decline
Games with a turnover of more than 100 million yuan, as well as games with a flow of 10 million yuan and between 100 million yuan and 100 million yuan, have grown weakly in the past year. The former has a 75% reduction in game rollover, and the latter has a 91% reduction in game rollover (the statistics are, 20 and 21 years of games have rollover data). Even if the threshold of annual flow of more than 100 million yuan becomes higher, and the number of waist tens of millions + flow games becomes more, the general trend of falling more and rising less shows that 2021 is undoubtedly a "small year" for two-dimensional games.
There are 62 games with a turnover of more than 10 million yuan in 21 years, and only 7 of the 43 games with year-on-year turnover statistics have increased from 20 years, an increase of 11 billion yuan. With 36 games left, the total turnover has shrunk by 6.17 billion yuan in 20 years.
Specifically, the threshold for over 100 million yuan has become higher, but 75% of the games that were not launched in 21 years have experienced a reduction in turnover.
In 2020, there are 35 games with a total turnover of more than 100 million yuan, with a total turnover of 28.2 billion yuan, accounting for 97% of the total turnover.
In 2021, there are 28 games with a total turnover of more than 100 million yuan, with a total turnover of 35.8 billion yuan, accounting for 96.5% of the total turnover.
Among the games with a turnover of more than 100 million yuan in 21 years, (20 have year-on-year changes) only 5 of them have a year-on-year increase in revenue, and 15 have declined year-on-year. If you don't count the 10 billion yuan turnover growth of "Original God", the revenue of the remaining 19 games with a turnover of more than 100 million yuan has shrunk by 3.5 billion yuan compared with 20 years.
In the range of 10 million yuan to 100 million yuan in 21 years, there are 34 games with a total flow of 1.28 billion yuan; the same figure is 19 in 2020, with a total flow of 836 million yuan.
The number of games that entered this revenue range in 21 years has increased, but the total turnover has only increased by 440 million yuan compared with 20 years, which is a drop in the bucket. Among the 34 games, the games that were online in 21 years were removed, and the remaining 23 games, the total turnover was reduced by 2.1 billion yuan compared with 20 years.
The TOP10 games with the largest reduction in turnover in 21 years range from a reduction of 200 million yuan to a reduction of 700 million yuan, mainly games under the umbrella of large manufacturers. After all, the premise of being able to earn less than a few hundred million flows - is to have several hundred million flows. It is worth mentioning that among the 10 games, only "Shan Hai Mirror Flower" and "Under One Person" have not exceeded 100 million yuan in 21 years.
"Game lifespan": The new game is weak, and the phenomenon of eating the old is serious
Among the games with more than 10 million yuan in 21 years, there are 14 games that have been online for 21 years, bringing a total of 2.15 billion yuan of turnover. There are 16 models that were launched in 2020, contributing a total of 17.91 billion yuan (a total of 2.55 billion yuan except for "Original God").
Judging from the games launched in 2020, there are 16 games with more than 10 million in 21 years, and 11 games with statistics in these two years. The total turnover of these 11 games in 21 years compared with 20 years increased by 9.47 billion yuan. In addition to "Original God", the total turnover of the remaining 10 games in 21 years has been reduced by 1.04 billion yuan compared with 20 years. Moreover, in addition to "Original God", "Time and Space Traveler", and "Undetermined Event Book", the remaining 8 games have been reduced in 21 years.
A total of 15 games launched in 2019 have flowed more than 10 million in 21 years, contributing a total of 5.34 billion yuan, and the flow of these games has decreased by 2.51 billion yuan compared with 2020. Among them, 14 models have shrunk their turnover compared with 20 years, especially the "Slam Dunk Master" released by DeNA, which has shrunk by 560 million yuan year-on-year.
A total of 17 games launched from 2014 to 2018 have flown more than 10 million in 21 years, of which 14 games have reduced their turnover, contributing a total of 11.7 billion yuan, which is 2.1 billion yuan less than in 20 years. Among them, 6 works such as "Naruto", "Maiden Frontline", "Yin and Yang Division" and "Crash 3" launched in 2016 still contributed a total of 8.69 billion yuan. However, the total of these 6 games is also 1.367 billion yuan less than 20 years.
Overall, in addition to "Original God", the two-dimensional games launched in the past two years have been weak, the recession period has come faster, and the situation of eating the old is serious.
The game launched in 2019 has entered its third year, which should be the year of play. However, the 5.34 billion yuan of turnover contributed accounted for only 14% of the total turnover of two-dimensional games last year. In the 21-year flow TOP10, the only three games that have been online in 19 years are "Shine Warm", "Ark of Tomorrow", and "Battle Double Pamish", and they have shrunk compared with 20 years in 21 years. At the same time, "Slam Dunk Master" and "Food Language" have been greatly reduced in 21 years and dropped out of the TOP10 position.
The games launched in 2020 are in the second year of their lifespan, and it seems that the total turnover has contributed 47.7%, but if you don't count "Original God", the remaining 14 games have only contributed 2.5 billion yuan, even less than the games launched in 2019.
On the contrary, it is 14-18 years online, and this batch of games with a lifespan of more than 3 years still has a high turnover. In particular, many games in 2016 still contributed 23% of last year's turnover, and the reduction in turnover was also the least in the old games.
In addition to "Original God", the games launched in 2019 and 2020 did not have the performance they should have during the outbreak period, and the 7.7 billion yuan turnover accounted for only 21% of the total turnover - lower than the performance of the games in 2016. At the same time, the new games in 2021 are not momentum enough, accounting for only 5.8% of the total turnover.
There is another piece of data that supports this view.
There are 23 games with a turnover of more than 100 million yuan in 2021 compared with 2020, of which 7 are online from 2015 to 2018, 9 are online in 2019, and 7 are online in 2020. The poor performance of the games that were launched in 19 and 20 years led to the overall lack of good two-dimensional games last year. In the flowing water videos of many old games, many people will talk about "xx is not even cold". It is undeniable that the old game is also continuing to decline, and the phenomenon of 21 years of two-dimensional games eating the old has not eased.
"Tencent NetEase B Station Miha Tour": The flow of water exceeds 100 million, and it is not a safe zone
Last year, Tencent (including R&D and publishing) had 14 games, with a total turnover of 5.12 billion yuan, and 13 games with a turnover of more than 10 million. Tencent's two-dimensional elements are mostly IP adaptations, 6 of which have been adapted from overseas IP and 2 by domestic IP in 21 years. Due to the long time on-line, the rollover has been greatly reduced. In particular, the domestic IP adaptation of "Under One Man" has a turnover of 500 million yuan less in 21 years than that in 20 years, and "Little Red Lady of the Fox Demon" has only 8.52 million yuan in 21 years, which is 40 million yuan less than 20 years.
In terms of overseas IP adaptation, the 21-year flow of "Saint Seiya" decreased by 160 million yuan year-on-year, the 21-year flow of "Hunter" was 150 million yuan less than that of the year, and the national costume of "Idol Dream Festival" was stopped early, completing the national costume of "Idol Dream Festival 2" with musical elements.
Tencent's new ones launched in 21 years are "Love of Light and Night", "White Night Aurora" and "Spirit Realm", of which "White Night Aurora" was not launched in China. "Elven Realm" has a good reputation and poor income performance.
It can be said that in addition to "Love of Light and Night", Tencent's two-dimensional games in 21 years lack of explosive models in terms of release and self-research, and IP adaptations also rely on eating the old version of "Naruto", so in some two-dimensional communities, everyone "talks about goose color change".
IP adaptation may be a path that Tencent continues to adhere to in the pan-quadratic field, and "One Punch Man: Justice Execution" and "Project Fighter" of the Voyager King IP were announced at the press conference in 21 years. If the "White Night Aurora" national costume is handed over to Tencent, it will at least earn back some face for Tencent on the water, and "XuanzhongJi", which has caused controversy because of similar to "Zelda's Breath of the Wilderness" + "Original God", has just been launched on February 18, and this game is also released by Tencent.
NetEase has 9 games with more than 10 million turnover in 21 years, with a total turnover of 4.79 billion yuan. Compared with 20 years, "Yin and Yang Division", "Yin and Yang Division: Monster House", "Yin and Yang Division Hundred Smell cards", "Eternal 7 Days Capital" and "Above the Kuroshio" have all experienced a decline in water.
NetEase has 4 products launched in 2020 and 2 products launched in 2021, which are more than new games. However, the "Phantom Book Revelation" and "Above kuroshio", which were launched at the end of 2020, were announced to be discontinued. It shows that the return requirements of the big manufacturers for the two-dimensional game are higher, even if the flow of more than 100 million is not a safe zone.
Station B had statistics on 14 two-dimensional games last year, a lot of them, but the total flow was only 1.7 billion yuan.
"Twin Horizons", "The King Is Not Happy", and "Blue Route" have reduced their flow of more than 100 million yuan in 21 years compared with 20 years. And only "Blue Route", "Heavy War Ji" two games annual turnover of more than 100 million, but most of its flow contributed from abroad, and these two games were launched in 17 years and 19 years respectively.
The "Mobile Suit Ji: Fusion" launched in 2021 got 80 million yuan of turnover, but the gameplay and quality of the game itself did not have much highlights.
Other games launched in 2021 have not yet exceeded 50 million yuan, and the two games that will be launched in 2020, "The King Is Not Happy" and "Dream Cultivation Plan", are announced to be closed in 2021. If you do not consider the products of overseas agents such as "Kangong Riding Crown Sword" and "FGO", only look at domestic two-dimensional games, and the performance of the B-station two-dimensional game in 21 years is relatively bleak.
Miha Tour was undoubtedly the winner of last year's two-dimensional game. The annual turnover of the four games exceeds 10 million, with a total turnover of 17 billion yuan. The "Crash" series has experienced a decline in flow, but the growth of "Original God" is too much, and "Undetermined Event Book" as a game in 2020 has exceeded 100 million for two consecutive years, and the growth is stable.
"Sea Content": The top ten led to an increase of 7 billion yuan in sea flow
Since the second half of 2021, "good for the sea" has been repeatedly mentioned. Last year,the momentum of domestic two-dimensional games was still driven by head games.
For games with a turnover of 10 million + in 21 years, the total revenue of national service accounted for 73.5% of the total revenue, and the same figure in 2020 was 76.4%. The proportion of overseas income has increased slightly, and the actual income has also increased significantly - overseas revenue was 14.7 billion yuan in 2021 and 7.64 billion yuan in 2020.
The main reason is that the flow of water into the top 10 games, overseas proportion is higher; and some of the old games to overseas effect is significant.
In the top ten games with 21 years of turnover, overseas revenue accounted for 36.5%, overseas turnover was 12.7 billion yuan, and in 20 years, it was 21.6%, and the turnover was 5.77 billion yuan.
The overseas revenue of "Crash 3", "Shine Warm and Warm", and "Battle Double Pamish" have all increased, especially the growth of the latter two games is almost 5-6 times. In addition to the substantial increase in overseas revenue of "Original God", the overseas income of "Tomorrow's Ark", "Blue Route" and "Yin and Yang Division" declined slightly.
In addition, "Idol Dream Festival 2", "White Night Aurora", "Bird Soul" as examples, the games with large overseas revenue have also received more than 100 million yuan of water. Like "Dream Link" and "Reloaded Battle Ji", the former is a quality problem because of the version number and the latter - in the case of domestic difficulty in generating income, it has also opened a window in the overseas market, which may also become a breakthrough for some old two-dimensional games in 22 years.
"How to play": Women to the best year, other categories can roll up not much
Women are the new blood in the 21-year two-dimensional field, contributing nearly 10% of revenue. 11 women's flow to the game exceeded 10 million, a total of 4.07 billion yuan, and most of them are new games - 9 are online in 2019-2021.
This segment of the field of big factors gathered, Tencent, NetEase, Paper, Mihayou, Music Elements, etc., and this is not counting byte's "Flower Yishan Heart Moon". In terms of gameplay, there are both traditional cards and costumes, as well as "Absolute Interpretation" and "Idol Dream Festival 2" that are draped in entertainment industry themes, which dominate overseas and successfully iterate on the music game.
It is worth mentioning that 5 otome games contributed 1.02 billion yuan, and 4 were launched in 2020 and 2021. Among them, there are "Light and Night Love", which breaks the stereotype of Tencent, and "Undetermined Event Book" and "The Boss is Too Busy" with legal reasoning and costume themes.
In the context of a slight tightening of women's games, it is expected that there will be fewer new works for women to products in 22 years, and more and more games will reduce the content of otome and female in terms of gameplay and packaging. But at least, the 21-year-old female-to-otome game is full of flowers.
Looking back at 21 years of more than 10 million yuan of flowing water games, there have been a large number of products for placing cards and strategic wargames, and "Yin and Yang Division: Monster House", "Elf Realm" and "High-Skilled Hand Group" have all incorporated placement elements.
The wargame gameplay ensures the playability of the two-dimensional product in terms of strategy, which is quite popular with manufacturers. Released in 21 years, there are works such as "Final Fantasy: Apocalypse of Courage" and "Heaven and Earth". The popular products that have been announced in research include "ShaoQian 2: Chasing release", "Laigu Mi xin", "Annihilation Effect", "Sword of Suzuran", etc., not to mention "Heaven and Earth Robbery" and "Dream Simulation War" have better flow data. The quadratic properties of these games are not the same, but it is certain that there will be more combinations of wargames and quadratic/pan-quadratic.
On the opposite side of the coin, there are fewer replicable gameplays - whether it is wargames, placement, or simulated business + CCG/TCG cards are not unusual. So in the limited space to rack their brains to do gameplay integration (sewing) has become a trend, for example, last year, there was a "Shaoqian: Cloud Map Plan" to greatly increase the proportion of Roguelike and combined with self-propelled chess to make a strategic play, there are also like "White Night Aurora" to borrow poker dragon maze adaptation of the elimination of gameplay, and other strategy cards and wargames have a clear distinction, "brainless copying homework" is more difficult.
A more subtle change is that the product is more "rolled" under the same type of gameplay.
Under the old gameplay of turn-based cards or turn-based RPGs, the new works look for advantages in terms of art style, performance, world view, and theme.
For example, Lilith's Apocalypse of Eden and The Divine Beings are all 3D cards, with a large number of combat/drama performances, as well as a unique nightclub play art style to find differentiation.
In terms of theme, "Apocalypse of Eden", "The Divine Awakener" and "Little First 2" are all considered by players to have a combination of science fiction + cyberpunk elements, but the time point of technological civilization and the style of painting can still reflect the difference.
The Book of Eden
The art and theme volume is finished, and from the published tests of Mihayou's "Crash: Stardome Railway" and Eagle Point's "From Stardust", the quality has been raised, hoping to meet the expectations of the console/movie level experience. When the standing painting, performance, and technology reached a certain level, such as "Collapse: Star Dome Railway", it began to look for a new worldview and character narration methods, and also tried to use some of the experience in "Original God" to explore the experience.
From Stardust
Another common denominator is that most of the above works are pursuing 3D presentation technology + realistic two-dimensional style. Even "Little First 2: Pursuit" and "Apocalypse of Eden" and "From Stardust" use 3D graphics and PBR+NTR rendering technology, which also puts forward higher requirements for the technical level and differentiation of the overall two-dimensional new work.
But the more "volume" the more difficult, in fact, is not a good thing, in the "Eden Apocalypse" project suspension rumors, some people mentioned that the reason is that "the game stylization is not prominent, without the version number, if only in the overseas online plate is not large enough." This also shows that the innovation point and differentiation of the fixed gameplay products are becoming more and more difficult to find, and the previous two-dimensional games only need to have a strength at a certain point such as art and gameplay, and now the competition is who has fewer shortcomings, and relying only on a certain link to pile up the cost must not be a sustainable solution.
Love and deep space
Of course, there are also manufacturers who try to make bold innovations in gameplay, such as "Love and Deep Space" and "Backlit Stealth" of Paper,which combine 3D action with love, as well as the combination of real-time tactics and infiltration, which is also an exploration method.
Revisit the functionality of quadratic games
In 2022, it's time to revisit the functionality of two-dimensional games.
First of all, for listed companies such as Tencent NetEase Perfect. The secondary products that meet performance expectations have disappeared, but the road to transformation is extremely difficult.
Tencent's "Naruto" NetEase's "Yin and Yang Division" B station's "Blue Route" these products that can support performance can still fight again, but in addition to Otome games, new works frequently pounce on the street, and the games produced by large factories and the preferences of the two-dimensional group are getting farther and farther away.
Tencent's 14 works are 8 IP adaptations, such products are often due to supervision and cost reasons, the quality ceiling is difficult to break through. However, among the works under research released by Tencent, there are still a large number of IP adaptations.
B station has been rarely achieved in the field of domestic self-research, whether it is "FGO" at the beginning of the US stock listing or last year's "Kangong Riding Crown Sword" are relying on overseas agents. Last year, the performance of the new work "Mobile Suit Ji" in the domestic market is difficult to call a pass, at least the standard of the B station for the two-dimensional product should be two grades higher.
NetEase may be the manufacturer who understands the second dimension the most of the three, but the suspension of the two new works launched at the end of 20 years also shows that the flow of hundreds of millions of dollars is not safe, and the big manufacturers have more stringent considerations for the cost and return of the two-dimensional game.
Although "Magic Tower" entered the top ten of the flowing water list, the performance of Perfect World's stock price before and after the game was launched has fully demonstrated that this "two-dimensional transformation masterpiece" has brought deep transformation pains.
For large manufacturers, continuing to use old ideas to make two-dimensional products, or trying to completely reproduce the past success path, ignoring the taste iteration of young players, and only using the second dimension as a selling point of mediocre games, it is likely to fall more miserably.
In fact, 21 years of two-dimensional games have experienced great ups and downs of hot and cold alternating. In the first half of 21, the big manufacturers led by Tencent shot very hard in the fields of SLG, quadratic yuan, open world, and shooting, until they began to stop after the Mid-Autumn Festival.
With a series of external factors descending, the game industry in '22 will only be colder than the second half of '21.
On the one hand, companies with low profit margins and lack of profits will lay off employees on a large scale, on the other hand, large factories will cut more projects, first the suspension of "The Book of Illusions" and "Above the Kuroshio", followed by the rumor that Lilith's two-dimensional project has been cut - the big factory will have higher requirements for the two-dimensional project. On the other hand, there will be fewer cases of the transformation of the perfect "Magic Tower"-style large factory, because there is no IP and no benchmarking of the two-dimensional self-research, and the difficulty of setting up the project will only be greater.
However, for a number of companies with high profit margins or abundant financing surpluses, such as Mihayou, Eagle Horn, Paper stacking, Scattered Explosion, And Deep Blue, Peter, who focuses on game investment, believes that "there are fewer external influences, and the projects that have been established are all in research and development." ”
Old games still have flowing water, new products are being developed, which may be a more comfortable time for them. Peter believes that "when many projects were launched last year, the industry was in a general trend of cost increases, but as the salary in the game industry cooled, it is likely that their product costs will decline." ”
For such companies, the second dimension will continue to be a breakthrough. Just as "Original God" is to Mihayou, after the technical foundation and mature quality control capabilities, the second dimension may further increase the upper limit of these companies.
For small cost and entrepreneurial teams, two-dimensional products still have the opportunity to fight. After all, the ability to control young users and differentiated products that are innovative enough are still scarce resources. It's just that the competition will be more intense. Peter argues, "Companies that got their money last year need to do a great job to keep taking it or they'll run out of food; another part of the company that didn't get the money before could go out of business on the spot." ”
But this is not a bad thing, for players, manufacturers and the general public, it is an opportunity to reshape the perception of two-dimensional games. Two-dimensional games are no longer "color-only Japanese beauty girl card games" - but de-labeled, from Roguelike to open world to FPS/TPS, which means richer game content and higher quality, even if the labels and attributes of the two-dimensional are removed, it should be a high-level game in the open world, FPS/TPS or other gameplay.
For smaller studios and startup teams, the avenues of opportunity are smaller, but it's also often a moment of dormancy and blockbuster. Whether it's the cruel project choice or the reality of general shrinkage - the two-dimensional game that is colder than imagined in 2021 is more challenging in 2022, but it is still worth looking forward to.
Note: The data source in the article is the main domestic two-dimensional game observation, about the flow calculation method and the evaluation criteria of the two-dimensional game, only the up main collection of games and data for comparison.