Who would have thought that the Super Bowl showdown would be a four-seed showdown between two leagues? If it is reasonable for the Rams to dominate the National League, then the Tigers, who only locked in the Northern Champions in the penultimate week of the regular season, eliminated the Titans, the top seed of the United States League, and the hegemonic chief of the three consecutive championships, and achieved the first time in history that two league four seeds met the Super Bowl.
Tiger pavement vs Ram anti-run
The regular season Rams defensive EPA -0.116 (the league's sixth) positive score rate of 39.3%; the playoff two statistics improved to -0.162 and 30.6%, von Miller, Donald, Greg Gaines, Ashhorne Robinson and Leonard Freud lined up from left to right, as long as the opponent tried to open the situation with the first gear rush, the Rams could beat the road cover with the "strange front" position and the individual ability to defend the front line, even if they did not need security guards to support the run, Complete anti-running interception.
A set of data comparison: from week 1 to week 14, the Tigers' initial passing rate was 51.1% (the league's 17th), which means that the Tigers' first two attacks were basically to try a road attack, which made the initial road attack EPA only -0.104, and the initial passing EPA was only 0.088; and from the 15th week to the divisional game, the Tigers' initial passing rate increased to 57.3% (the third in the league in the same period), not only the passing EPA soared to 0.317. The pavement EPA also improved slightly to -0.073. In short, after the Tigers let Joe Burrow pass more, the overall offense improved a lot, but due to the poor strength of the offensive front, the quality of the road attack was all about the personal dodge and tackle of running back Joe Mixon, so no matter how the road surface played in the first gear, the efficiency was very average.
The Tigers have a tendency to deliberately enter the road in the American League finals, but the effect is very poor, on the Super Bowl, in the face of the Rams' strict defense and strong starting line advantage, hard hits are equal to direct waste of gears, the smartest way to play in the first gear is to use short passes to mobilize the Rams defense, rather than the road to attack, but completely abandon the road is not OK, so when, what way, which direction to walk, is the Tigers coach Zach Taylor these two weeks need to consider the problem.
Ram pavement vs Tiger pavement
Sean McVeigh is known to be the cornerstone of his tactics in the outside area to cover the ball, but the last time the Rams' road EPA was above the league average was in 2018 , the peak of Todd Gerley. This season's regular season Rams' road cover win rate and PFF score are in the middle of the league, playoffs and regressions, the main running back Cam Ax is injured in the regular season, and the playoffs return but miss the ball. The essential difference between Ax and substitute Sony Michelle from his peak is that they simply don't have the speed of a long-distance home run on the road. The fifth-highest initial pass rate in the regular season league, 57.0%, is also a very honest reflection, and now the Rams have not made the road attack the core of the offense at all.
However, the Tigers' regular season defensive EPA-0.081 is only the middle level of the league, and a large number of double high defenses entering the playoffs have made their defensive EPA almost fall below the negative number. Although the use of fake run real passes after Stafford took over the attack fell by 10%, the depth and power of The pass after Stafford's fake run were quite amazing, and did the Tiger dare to let strong defender von Bell put on the defensive run? When the Tigers use the double high, will the Rams sneak up on the road with the first gear? In the National League final, McVeigh obviously entered the game with Xiao Bei's short-range catch and road attack, just falling into the 49ers' pre-game preparations, will the Super Bowl change the way of entering the game? This set of duels is not destined to be the main theme of the Super Bowl, but I think the Rams have a good chance to get some big sizes on the road through the transfer of passes.
Tiger Pass vs Rams Pass
The Rams' rush pass win rate + PFF rush pass score, anti-run win rate + PFF anti-run score Regular season four data all lead the league, and the weakness of the Tigers offensive front line does not need to be repeated, so the first problem is that if the Tigers still copy the offensive strategy of the divisional race against the Titans, it is not difficult to estimate the double digits of the number of kills. However, in the American League final, The average shot time of Burrow's uncompressed 24-block pass was 2.28 seconds, and a large number of quick shots made the Chief's powerful rush pass invisible. Since the Rams initially relied heavily on a five-man front line similar to the 3-4 front to complete a high-quality defensive run, but the empty backcourt exposed a lot of empty space for the Tigers to quickly pass the ball to cooperate with the attack, on the Super Bowl you will see a large number of near-end forwards and running backs to pick up short passes, outside receivers quickly cut into the hook and curl area attacks, even if the Rams are forced to reduce the five-man front line is used, the Tigers' game strategy will still be dominated by fast passes, unless they fall behind early, Burrow would not expose himself to the fire of the rams.
In the regular season, Chase's PFF score of 78.2 in the face of regional defense and 2.30 yards per run route was much lower than the 90.6 and 3.92 yards when facing people staring, so the playoffs began to focus on Chase with bag clips and area defense, Chase's pass depth plummeted from 13.6 yards in the regular season to 9.6 yards in the playoffs, only received a long pass, and the tigers in the three playoffs also completed only three long passes, burdened by the offensive front. Perhaps the long pass will not be the main plan of the Super Bowl Tigers. However, the Tigers received three young chases, Tee Higgins and Taylor Boyd still have a lot of vertical route running, creating space for the short and medium distances, and the Rams' emphasis on area defense will have some passive moments.
The game is so crucial, the opponent is so strong, Jaylen Ramsey will definitely leave the "star guard", the main defense of Chase, in time is the area defense will also stay close to Chase side. However, the last time Ramsey decided to defend a single opponent was the divisional match against the Pirates, facing Mike Evans, Ramsey's defense conceded eight passes of 104 yards and 1 long pass. Ramsey has top physical interference and tackling ability, but the defense of the long pass is not perfect, once it really encounters Chase's vertical bombardment, it is difficult to say that Ramsay's defense zone can be maintained perfectly. In addition, the Rams' other main cornerback, Darius Williams, has a PFF staring rating of only 43.6 so far in the playoffs, which will also be a potential target for the Tigers' long passes. Coupled with the playoffs improvised patchwork of Nick Scott + Eric Weddell's security guard combination, the playoff raid usage rate of 32.8% is 5% higher than in the regular season, more raids make the backcourt more hollow, Rams defensive coordinator Rahim Morris has thousands of tips, but the alignment of the receiver is not dominant, and the state of the defender in the backcourt is average.
In the regular season, Burrow has grown into a first-line quarterback in the league, and the playoffs continue to refresh people's perceptions, and in the American League Final, Burrow's passing gear outside the offensive structure in the face of pressure shows the excellent emergency escape shot and unimaginable dodge and tackle ability of college, in short, as long as Boro plays normally, the Tigers' offensive lower limit is frighteningly high.
Burrow's pass EPA 0.28 in the face of people is higher than 0.08 in the face of area defense, the pass EPA is 0.22 higher than 0.01 when facing a single high, and it is extremely welcome to attack opponents, so the Rams on the Super Bowl will put up a double high position before kick-off, after the kick-off is a lot of tactical changes to confuse Borrow, and then use the double high Cover4/Cover6 area defense to limit vertical attacks, as few people as possible to stare at people to avoid the Tigers playing the advantage of external takeover, Try to minimize the clearance of the area defense that the raid misses.
Modern rugby's staring > rushing pass, although the Rams rush pass has a huge advantage, but the advantage of the tiger on the receiving end will be magnified, plus Boro will not sit in the pocket all the time, worried that the tiger attacking the front line to destroy the overall attack, it is really a lot of worry.
Rams Pass vs Tigers Anti-Pass
Compared with the Tigers' weak offensive front, the Rams' regular season pass protection win rate of 68.0% is the first in the league, the PFF protection score is 81.2 second, and the pass protection success rate is 86.6 eleventh; the playoff Rams protection score of 76.8 and the protection success rate of 88.6 also basically maintain the regular season level. On the other hand, the Tigers rushed to pass, the fourth quarter of the American League Finals four single quarters of the single quarter to kill Mahomes looks very powerful, but their regular season pass win rate and PFF rush pass score are the bottom eight, the playoffs only used a 16.8% raid rate to create a 24.4% pressure rate, of course, the focus of the Tigers' pass defense is not on the human hand to rush the pass, Hendrickson and Sam Habad "Hum Ha Second General" with limited personal ability to create interference, so Stafford's passing environment on the Super Bowl will be more comfortable.
The American League Finals Tigers used 18 three-person rush passes + eight-man defensive passes in 46 gears, and a large number of high-low bag clips and brackets in the people were defended in the cover7 area, and It was difficult for Mahoms to find empty targets, and all four tackles in the fourth quarter all came from this. This trick may be useful for the indecisive, best-looking Mahoms, but Stafford's personality and style of play are very different from Mahoms's, whether you have seven or eight people in the backcourt, you will have the courage to shoot as long as you have the opportunity. In the regular season, Stafford scored 89.5 in the league at no pressure and 92.7 in the league at no pressure, and with solid pocket footing and observation ability, it was almost impossible for the Tigers to defend Stafford with the same move.
The 2021 version of CoopEr-Karp, with the common agility and lateral route accuracy of the great white slot in history, and a rare combination of stature and athleticism, coupled with the natural tacit understanding of McVeigh's tactics and Stafford, now the Rams will pass the ball to Karp once every 3.3 passes, each run route averages 3.17 yards, and 123 of the 170 catches are touchdowns or first attacks, which are astronomical in history. In the face of people staring at people with the option route to get rid of the defense, facing the area defense can instantly enter the empty space, and extremely comprehensive and not afraid of high and low positions, Karp is a truly invincible existence, super Bowl if the Tigers can limit Karp to 10 times to catch the ball 100 yards 1 touchdown such data, it is already considered a success.
After pulling the pitch's deep vertical route to junior Van Jefferson, Xiaobei now attacks opponents more with the mid-range route of emergency stops and internal turns, and has been passed only 10.9 yards deep so far in the playoffs, but 19 catches (including 13 first attacks and 1 touchdown) in 22 passes are very different from the way they played as a Giant, but in this winter Xiaobei has returned to the peak in a different way.
Looking at the Tigers defense group, the number one corner guard Chidob Awuzi's PFF defense score has shrunk from 84.2 in the regular season to 42.0, and the other two main cornerbacks, Eli Epple and Mike Hilton, are also around 60 points, down from the regular season, why is the Tigers' pass defense level still maintained? It is two security guards with strong ability and comprehensiveness. Among the Most Used Cover3 and Cover 1 stares at the Tigers, Jesse Bates can guard the entire backcourt alone, von Bell can complete the task of keeping an eye on the near end and guarding the shallow area; when the Tigers use the cover2 and cover4 double high defense, von Bell can retreat to the backcourt to defend half a deep position, with such a good pair of security guards, the huge alignment advantage of the Rams on the catcher side is also discounted.
Finally, looking at Stafford, in the playoffs, he changed the appearance of the regular season "gift-giving master", 7 big heart passes, only 3 potential misses, the average pass depth of 9.5 yards, PFF pass score of 86.8 are higher than the opposite Boro, it is not too much to say that Staffor enjoyed the best time of his career. Similar to Burrow's statistics in different situations, Stafford's pass EPA of 0.52 against people is much higher than the 0.13 in the face of the area defense, the pass EPA of 0.29 when facing a single high is much higher than the 0.10 when facing a double high, and the pass EPA of 0.63 when facing a surprise attack is much higher than the 0.08 when facing a non-raid. Because the Tigers rarely use raids, It may be difficult for Stafford to perform cracking dafa, but the Tigers are a team that relies heavily on single-position defense and also uses a lot of people to stare at people, which will be more dangerous when facing Stafford, so using a richer anti-pass mode and hiding defense before kick-off may be the correct way to open the Tiger's anti-pass.
The Rams have a huge advantage on the offensive front line and a huge advantage on the receiving end, and in the face of the hot Stafford and Karp, even if they play the second half of the American League Finals, it may be difficult to defend the Rams.
Secret Service Showdown
Speaking of the Tigers, it is necessary to mention evan McPherson, the rookie kicker selected in the fifth round this year, who lost only 7 goals in the regular season with 81 free kicks + extra points, and 16 kicks in the playoffs, including three 50+ yard free kicks, divisional and American League finals.
Rams kicker Matt Gay was in the same five-round show three years ago, this year's regular season 83 free kicks + extra points attempts to kick only 3 goals, the top kick performance made him into the professional bowl, although the playoffs lost two free kicks of more than 40 yards, but 16 of the 18 kicks are still solid, and there are also kills in the divisions. It can be said that the kickers of the two teams are evenly divided.
However, the other special agent dimensions of the two sides have basically played the standard this season, and the PFF special service score of both teams in the playoffs is above 80, which also explains the problem, but if I want to predict a possible flashpoint, that is, the Rams kicker Brandon Powell who has completed the regular season and returned to the touchdown, and he has the opportunity to change the course of the game.
Miscellaneous comparison
Comparing the Super Bowl experience, the Tigers, except for substitute security guard Ricardo Allen, who represented the Falcons in the history-honored Super Bowl, did not have any players with the experience of this game; on the Rams' side, two interceptors Whitworth and HarvinStyn, close-end tyler Higbi, Aaron Donald, abandoned kicker Johnny Haeckel, and substitute running back Sony Michel (then the Patriots) were involved in the Super Bowl that lost to the Patriots four years ago, and von Miller also had the super bowl MVP experience. The experience part of the Ram is slightly better. However, both managers were also involved four years ago — Tigers coach Zach Taylor was McVeigh's quarterback coach that year.
There is no mistake, after McVeigh personally bid farewell to his master Shanahan Jr. in the National League final, he now meets his apprentice Taylor. In the past three years, after becoming the coach of the Tigers, Taylor is considered to be the least like McVeigh's apprentice, not only the tactical design is completely devoid of McVeigh's style, but the on-site conductor is equally confused, which can be found in the last minute of the 17th week of this season's victory over the Chief. McVeigh's 1st Name was almost ruined in the recent National League final, and two forced challenge failures wasted two suspensions, but his excellent pre-match preparation and game design were certainly better than his apprentice Taylor.
As for the Rams' home advantage at SoFi Stadium, since the stadium is the home of the American League Lightning, the away Rams cannot use the familiar home dressing room, and the tickets are also sold to fans on both sides, so the Rams' home advantage is certainly not as obvious as last year's Chief.
Win-loss prediction
After the above-mentioned winning and losing conditions, the Tigers attack wants to break the Rams defense, basically only a quick pass, the solution method is slightly monotonous; while the Rams attack can walk the surface, can catch the receiver one-on-one, can also attack the area defense, the solution is much more. To say that I am personally more superstitious, the Tigers are two fronts that are significantly weaker than the Rams in the offensive and defensive starting line duels, and when there is no overwhelming advantage in other dimensions, the tigers' chances of winning are quite low.
And this year's Super Bowl is the first time since the 2012 season that there is no historical super quarterback such as Manning, Brady and Mahoms participating in the Super Bowl, which does not say that the league has any direction to manipulate the outcome of the game, in summary, super Bowl experience, coaching advantage, home advantage, the Rams will not hang the Tigers, but in the first rugby game of the Year of the Tigers in the Lunar Calendar, let the Tigers swallow a "fate year disaster", it seems that the problem is not big.
Super Bowl MVP's prediction is intellectually Cap and emotionally Stafford.