Very informative! In the past 40 years, the rare bailout has delivered 6 real estate signals, which are good for home buyers and developers

2024-05-18 21:06:58

Very informative! In the past 40 years, the rare bailout has delivered 6 real estate signals, which are good for home buyers and developers

Guangyu spits out the property market

2024-05-18 21:03Published in Beijing Real Estate Critic Creator in the field of real estate

May 17, 2024 will be recorded in the history of real estate, and on this day, from the policy level, real estate once again ushered in new opportunities. The release of a rare combination of policies to save the property market in history, which is a great injection of confidence for home buyers, real estate companies and the real estate industry.

Very informative! In the past 40 years, the rare bailout has delivered 6 real estate signals, which are good for home buyers and developers

In fact, the recent grapevine has been flying all over the sky, and the real estate sector is also rising all the way, and everyone has expectations for the bailout policy, but it is even bigger than expected, a bit beyond expectations, and it has triggered the real estate sector to rise again.

From the blockbuster news such as the reduction of the down payment ratio, the reduction of mortgage interest rates, and the collection of houses by the national team, a new pattern of real estate in the future has been constructed, and at the same time, the cost of buying a house and the threshold for buying a house that are directly related to ordinary people have also set a new historical record. This adjustment is the most relaxed in the history of real estate development in the past 40 years, and there has never been such a large relaxation policy in the past, which can be called an epic housing purchase promotion policy with far-reaching impact.

1. The proportion of the first house is reduced to 15%, which lowers the threshold for buying a house.

On May 17, the central bank and other departments clarified that for households that take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house will be adjusted to no less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second houses will be adjusted to no less than 25%.

In the past, the minimum down payment for the first home was 20%, but it varies from city to city, but this time it has been reduced to 15%. This is the most lenient mortgage policy in history, and arguably the most lenient of the recent real estate benefits.

The down payment ratio has been lowered, and for many people, you can get on the car in advance, because it lowers the threshold for you to buy a house, of course, you have to calculate before buying a house, and your future repayment pressure, because less down payment means that you will repay more loans in the future, don't be hasty.

2. The mortgage interest rate is lowered to reduce the cost of buying a house.

The policy is clear, and the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level will be abolished.

Originally, there was a lower limit, for example, in the past, the minimum interest rate in some cities was 3.5%, so now it may be possible to continue to reduce it. In the past, it was adjusted in combination with the housing price situation in various places, but now the lower limit is canceled nationwide. Nationally, except for a few first- and second-tier cities, the interest rate on the first home loan in most cities has dropped to about 3.45%, and some cities are even around 3.25%.

Now that the favorable policy has been extended to second homes, it is believed that more cities will lower mortgage interest rates in the future, and the room for mortgage interest rate reductions in first-tier and core second-tier cities will be further increased. In the future, the interest rate of the first home commercial loan may fall below 3%.

At the same time, since May 18, the interest rate of provident fund loans has been lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan for more than 5 years has been adjusted to 2.85%, and the second house has been adjusted to no less than 3.325%.

If the provident fund loan amount is 1 million yuan, the loan is 30 years, and the repayment method of equal principal and interest is calculated, the monthly payment will be reduced by 135 yuan, and the cumulative monthly payment for 30 years will be reduced by 48,500 yuan. It is expected to accelerate the expectations of home buyers entering the market.

The reduction of the down payment ratio and the reduction of interest rates on commercial loans and provident fund loans will have a positive impact on the real estate market, helping to release the demand for housing and promote the active and stable development of the real estate market. Directly reduce the threshold and cost of buying a house, and reduce the pressure of buying a house. And the most important thing is psychological expectations.

For example, in Beijing, the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate will be further reduced, but I think that compared to other cities, the magnitude will not be too large, and if the rumors are true, many people who buy three houses can also enjoy the loan qualification of two sets.

3. Purchase instead of building, and the "national team" will speed up the destocking.

Earlier, the state had set the tone to "coordinate the study of policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the increase in housing". On May 17, the policy was clear that the central bank will set up a 300 billion yuan affordable housing re-loan to encourage and guide financial institutions to support local state-owned enterprises to purchase unsold commercial housing at a reasonable price in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, and use it as affordable housing for sale or rent. That is, "purchase instead of construction". It not only reduces the pressure on real estate enterprises, but also solves the problem of affordable housing supply, and does not duplicate construction, resulting in waste of resources.

This is good news for some cities with high inventories, which are already already being done.

4. Let the people get the house that has passed the acceptance as scheduled according to the contract.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that it will promote the project to ensure the delivery of housing on time, so that the people can get the houses that have passed the acceptance as agreed in the contract. For those who are still unable to deliver the house after exhausting all means, they should take the judicial route and take the judicial route, and in the judicial disposal, it is also necessary to put the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of the buyer in the first place.

This requires the consolidation of the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises, financial institutions and other parties. The relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes, the real estate market is in the process of adjustment, and some commercial housing projects under construction and sold are facing delivery difficulties. This should not seriously damage the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers, and affect the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Therefore, it is necessary to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of the building and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers, which is also an important part of affecting the confidence of home buyers.

5. The country's determination and strength to stabilize the real estate market have reached an unprecedented level.

The release of the above series of policies marks the country's attitude towards the real estate market, resets the tone of real estate, reflects the country's determination and strength to stabilize real estate, and has reached an unprecedented height.

As a pillar industry, real estate is associated with dozens or even hundreds of industries, affecting tens of millions of jobs or more, and stabilizing the property market is crucial to stabilizing growth and employment. This is what I often talk about in the past, but at present, in addition to preventing the problem from expanding, it is also necessary to make a smooth transition, not because of the side effects of real estate, but to open up all links to achieve a virtuous circle.

6. The property market is expected to come out of the haze, but the most important thing is the recovery of purchasing power confidence.

The country has shown the greatest sincerity, which also means that the most difficult period may be over, and next, the real estate industry will stabilize rather than continue to go down. Of course, this process still needs to be effective, and there is a certain lag from policy to market.

Although lowering the down payment and interest rate can alleviate some pressure, it is more of a psychological expectation, not to pay less, but to mean more loans in the future. I don't doubt the demand for housing, especially in big cities, which will release some demand in the short term, but it must be clear that purchasing power and willingness to buy need to be unified and coordinated, and income and security needs to be increased.

Let the people have the money to buy a house, have the ability to buy a house, and have the confidence to buy a house. It still takes a certain process for the property market to recover, and when the real estate market improves, it will also drive other industries to recover gradually, and in turn, the economy will be able to stimulate real estate demand again.

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