Hu Maoren: The essence of the paper tiger will never change

【Editor's Note】This article was originally published by the author Professor Hu Maoren, senior researcher of Kunlun Ce Research Institute, for research reference.

Chairman Mao's words: Imperialism and all reactionaries are paper tigers. Although paper tigers also have a real tiger side, there is also a side that bites and eats people, but in essence, paper tigers are paper tigers. As long as the bullied and oppressed people are united, persist in their struggle, and never give up, then the final victory must belong to the people.

Years ago, the United States and North Korea were in a state of tension over north Korea's nuclear test. At that time, the United States even threatened North Korea to take the necessary military action. Of course, we don't know what North Korea thinks in its heart, but North Korea is still very tough in its mouth. Some media outlets are already estimating that the United States could go to war with North Korea. Of course, there are also more media who believe that the possibility of such a war is not very likely. At that time, a friend of mine asked me when he met me on the road, "Do you think the United States and North Korea can fight this time?"

To be honest, I am not studying international politics, nor am I studying international relations. But with my interest in some international concerns and my inner feelings, I told this friend that the United States and North Korea could not fight.

He asked me why? I said neither North Korea nor the United States was prepared for a direct military conflict, and that The economic power of the United States had been declining for so many years. To fight a war is not so simple. Without national mobilization, the United States would face a country like North Korea. It's not so easy to fight a battle. The United States is now unable to defeat North Korea in terms of economic strength, and the United States has not done a national mobilization. At the same time, North Korea does not involve the core interests of the United States for the time being. If the United States were to fight a war over this, it would be unlikely from any point of view.

Of course, it turned out that north Korea and the United States did not have any military conflict for a long time afterwards. It's not that I have any prescience, because many situations are obvious. Some media listen to the wind and rain, and even hate that there can be no major events in the world, especially in the area of military conflicts. These unscrupulous media are afraid that the world will not be chaotic.

The friend also asked: When the United States fought Afghanistan, it said that it would fight and did not do any nationwide mobilization. I said, can Afghanistan compare with North Korea? For many years, north Korea has been engaged in armament building throughout the country, and its vigilance is very high. In Afghanistan, the Taliban are in power. The Taliban were armed by the United States. So the Taliban have a few pounds and a few pounds, and the United States is clear. The strength of the Taliban in the United States is also very clear. Therefore, in the eyes of the United States, it is easy to fight the Taliban. It turned out that the United States quickly drove the Taliban out of the Afghan political scene.

Now, many more years have passed. Of course, now that the Taliban have fought back, it is not that the Taliban have increased its military strength, but the key is that the United States can no longer afford to spend it. The United States may still be able to spend time in Afghanistan, but how much will this consumption delay the United States? The United States will certainly not continue to waste it like this, and he will withdraw as soon as possible.

If the United States is a soft bully and a hard fear, there is nothing wrong with this. Paper tiger, that's the virtue. Moreover, for example, Iran, although it is weaker than the Taliban, the United States does not dare to move with Iran. Iran is far worse than the United States in terms of strength, and has been subject to economic sanctions by the United States for many years, so if Iran and the United States face to face, it is generally believed that Iran will definitely suffer a big loss. But even so, the United States has not dared to do anything with Iran until now.

Although the strength of the United States is much greater than that of Iran, the United States is still worried that once it moves with Iran, the costs and costs that the United States will have to pay are still unbearable for the United States. More importantly, can the United States fundamentally and completely destroy Iran? The United States does not have such certainty. If the United States cannot completely destroy Iran, then even if the United States defeats Iran, after a few years, Iran will still recover, and may even be revived with blood. At that time, Iran would definitely not finish with the United States, and it would definitely die with the United States. In such a situation, what tricks does the United States have to deal with?

It is often seen that two children fight, one tall and tall, one weak and weak. Of course, in many cases, tall horses will definitely beat those small children of weak stature to the ground. However, if the weaker child is not convinced, even if he is knocked down, he will continue to stand up and finish with the older child, and even make a posture of playing with his life. In this case, the big kid couldn't stand it after so many iterations. Maybe in the end, this big child may still beg for forgiveness from the child, saying let's forget it, don't fight.

As the common people say, the horizontal is afraid of twisting, and the twisted is afraid of not dying. Generally speaking, if the weaker side, once determined to fight with the strong one, the one who looks stronger will generally eventually be unable to resist and soften.

For example, Cuba in the Caribbean is so small and has a population of only a few million, and the United States seems to have nothing to do with Cuba. Of course, the United States has not less sanctioned Cuba, which has caused Cuba to suffer for decades. But Cuba just doesn't accept softness.

The United States did not directly send troops to further Cuba, but only engaged in an army organized by Cuban exiles to attack Cuba. This is the famous Bay of Pigs incident that took place in 1961. The mercenary force was defeated by Cuban government forces after only 72 hours.

Perhaps for various reasons, the United States considered that if the United States directly attacked Cuba with its own military force, it might leave endless sequelae that were difficult to deal with. But in any case, Cuba did not succumb to the powerful power of the United States and has persisted to this day.

Between China and the United States, although China has made great strides in recent years and its comprehensive national strength has increased, there is still a big gap compared with the United States. In the Meng Wanzhou incident, some media at home and abroad openly and secretly believed that China had little chance of winning. But China is fighting the United States to the end. In the end, Meng Wanzhou not only did not admit guilt, but also did not pay a penny of fines, almost can be said to be a full body retreat. World public opinion cannot deny that this is China's victory.

Of course, this also includes that the United States now wants China, and if it continues to consume, the United States will get less. But in any case, in the face of the power of American imperialism, China persisted in the struggle, and in the struggle it had both courage and wisdom, and finally won a complete victory.

Again, Chairman Mao's words: Imperialism and all reactionaries are paper tigers. Although paper tigers also have a real tiger side, there is also a side that bites and eats people, but in essence, paper tigers are paper tigers. As long as the bullied and oppressed people are united, persist in their struggle, and never give up, then the final victory must belong to the people.

The Afghan Taliban fought a guerrilla war with the United States in Afghanistan for two decades, and although the Taliban side did not seem to have any obvious results militarily, the Taliban eventually forced the United States to withdraw from Afghanistan. Nor is it useful for the United States not to acknowledge his defeat in Afghanistan. Because the United States has indeed suffered defeat. No matter how cunning the paper tiger is, no matter how disguised, it is impossible to cover up the essence of the paper tiger.

(The author is a professor at Beihang University and a senior researcher at Kunlun Ce Research Institute; source: Kunlun Ce Network [author authorization], reproduced from the "Beihang Lao Hu Zhi Gossip" WeChat public account; picture from the Internet, invaded and deleted)