What other risks are worth paying attention to in the current market (which can be understood as a "roadblock" that hinders the rise of the broader market)
1. The "redemption tide" that the fund may trigger
So under what circumstances will the "redemption tide" occur?
The data shows that the historical large-scale centralized redemption of funds only appeared in 2015, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 24.7% in a single quarter, and the net subscription and redemption of the fund in the remaining periods fluctuated in the range of -8% to 3%, and the historical 4 lows lagged behind the Shanghai Composite Index for 1 quarter, occurring on the eve of the market stabilization, and the 4 lows corresponded to the average decline of the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.7%. (Centralized redemption of funds may require triggering two indicator anchors, one is a decline of more than 10% and the other is a quarterly lag (the first indicator has been triggered at present))
Current situation:
(1) At present, the SSE has fallen from the high point according to the low of the last day of the year is 9.5% (close to 10.7%).
(2) At present, more people in the market have fallen below the warning line (this is a risk signal, that is to say, the decline has reached 10% or more, the liquidation line of private funds is generally 0.8 net value, and the public offering is based on different settings of products)
2. Peripheral interest rate hikes and international turbulence and the valuation of the track
(1) The Fed's interest rate hike is a famous brand, and we also said earlier that the impact of the interest rate hike before and after the rate hike is relatively large for the global market, from December to January 2021, relatively confirm this process, according to the Fed's March interest rate hike expectations, then the rest of the time, still belongs to the time before the interest rate hike, although A shares have launched a period of adjustment, but whether it is over, it is not easy to define for the time being (the heart is bullish, and the actual trend is different, we must respect the market itself)
(2) At present, international competition is fierce, whether it is raw materials, technology or geographical problems, which are currently unstable factors affecting the global economic recovery. At present, these problems are long-standing, and in the case of the overall weakness of the market, these situations will be invisibly exaggerated by the market, thus becoming the reason or reason for suppressing the market.
(3) The problem of track valuation, yesterday we analyzed the lithium battery leader Ningde era, in the case of including 2022 performance expectations (under the premise that the various production factors of the Ningde era remain unchanged), the corresponding valuation is relatively reasonable. But the crux of the matter is that it is currently in the process of bearish weakness, in which case the market may continue to be killed once the market weakens (the sharp profits of the track in the first two years will cause the flight of funds).
Summary: The tide of fund redemption, which is a potential risk (to avoid this situation, the corresponding private placement needs to maintain the stability of high-net-worth customers, while the public offering is to take some other measures to stabilize the safety line); peripheral interest rate hikes are an imperative process, unless the economic data is poor, it is possible to postpone. The corresponding international situation requires timely and effective negotiations to reduce the risk of geopolitical conflict. The valuation problem requires researchers to disclose more research reports from the perspective of objective facts, make reasonable analysis and explanation of the corresponding company valuation, and improve investors' cognitive ability for the track. #Lithium battery##Photovoltaic##Is the situation in Russia and Ukraine really on the verge of erupting##Epidemic##价值伍哥 #
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