Reporter/Zhou Shiling Intern/Cao Nianrun
Edit/Luy
The fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong is critical, and it is now the "worst situation" in the two years since the fight against the epidemic.
According to reports, about 1325 new cases were confirmed in Hong Kong in a single day, once again setting a new record for a single day. Recently, 3 elderly people died after being diagnosed.
Since the first case of ocity-cloister transmission in Hong Kong at the end of 2021, several transmission chains have emerged in the local area. And under the attack of delta strains, after the Spring Festival gathering and the hidden spread of the community, the epidemic climbed and tightened. Some experts warn that if the outbreak is not controlled within two weeks, the worst case may be infection for more than 60% of the entire population.
At the same time, because at least 7 Hong Kong-Shenzhen cross-border freight drivers were positive for nucleic acid, affecting the transportation of food supplied to Hong Kong, the price of vegetables in Hong Kong soared. Some supermarkets have a cabbage tree as high as 55 Hong Kong dollars (about 44 yuan), and a pound of bean seedlings exceeds 100 Hong Kong dollars (about 81 yuan), more than double the previous one.
The fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong is menacing, and there are confirmed cases in many places
The epidemic is also impacting Hong Kong's medical resources. Local nucleic acid testing is in short supply, and a large number of positive people have been treated as a result of "serious overloading of emergency rooms in various districts, and patients may have to wait for several days before being arranged to be hospitalized". In response to the epidemic, Hong Kong has taken and adjusted a number of anti-epidemic measures in recent days.
According to expert analysis, according to the scale of the epidemic in other countries, the peak of the epidemic in Hong Kong can be seen in about three weeks. Local experts also reminded that the development of the epidemic needs to be observed and should be closely monitored, and it is hoped that local measures will play a certain role and be controlled in one or two months.
After a number of cross-border drivers were infected, the price of Hong Kong vegetables soared, and one kilogram of bean seedlings exceeded 100 yuan
The epidemic in Hong Kong has spread at a rate of about 1,000 cases per day for three consecutive days, causing concern. The Hong Kong government described it as follows: "The current development of the epidemic in Hong Kong is very serious, and it is the worst situation since we have fought against the epidemic in the past two years." ”
Affected by the epidemic, the price of vegetables in Hong Kong once soared, and many shopping malls appeared to grab vegetables, and even once there was a shortage of vegetables.
XiaoHua, who is studying at the University of Hong Kong, found on the 8th that in a cheap vegetable and fruit shop similar to "Aunt Qian" in Hung Hom, the price of a cabbage was 67 Hong Kong dollars, a cabbage was 55 Hong Kong dollars, and a pound of bean seedlings was 80 Hong Kong dollars. Xiaohua said that before a cabbage was only about 20 Hong Kong dollars, a pound of bean seedlings was 30 Hong Kong dollars.
On February 8, when Sharing the price of Hung Hom dishes on a social networking site, Xiaohua found that a cabbage cost 67 Hong Kong dollars, which was much higher than usual
In addition, the retail price of some supermarket bean seedlings exceeds 100 Hong Kong dollars / catty, and the price has more than doubled.
On the same day, according to the Data of the Hong Kong Vegetable Marketing Office, the average wholesale price of many vegetables rose significantly. If the wholesale price of spinach is as high as 37 Hong Kong dollars/ kg, the wholesale price of vegetable cores is 29.3 Hong Kong dollars / kg, an increase of more than double that of 10 days ago. Prices of oilseed rape, cabbage and watercress have also increased to varying degrees, but some vegetable prices have remained stable.
The sharp rise in vegetable prices may be related to the infection of many Hong Kong-Shenzhen cross-border freight drivers.
About 90% of Hong Kong's food comes from the mainland, with vegetables, fruits and meats dominated. Among them, vegetables, live livestock and poultry supplied to Hong Kong through the Wenjindu Port alone account for more than 80% of the Hong Kong market.
But around the Spring Festival, a number of cross-border freight drivers were infected. Among them, since February 4, Shenzhen alone has successively reported that 7 cross-border truck drivers have tested positive for covid-19 nucleic acid tests, involving Shenzhen Bay Port and Wenjindu Port.
Public information shows that affected by this, Shenzhen conducted epidemiological investigation and disinfection of the places where drivers had visited, and the above two ports had repeatedly "dropped the gate", so that cross-border truck drivers who were mainly responsible for transporting vegetables from the north and south once stayed at the connecting yard. Many cross-border trucks that went north to pick up goods temporarily returned to Hong Kong, and the volume of goods that arrived at the wholesale market the night before was about one-third of the previous day. Several other cargo drivers were quarantined as close contacts.
However, Hong Kong employee Xiao Pan said that the problem of vegetable supply may be related to the area in which he is located.
He estimated that there are confirmed cases and mandatory testing areas with positive sewage around the residence or encountered problems in providing vegetables, and the public may panic to buy vegetables and hoard vegetables for fear of being isolated, which in turn will lead to tight vegetable supply and increased prices of merchants.
"I've asked some friends around me, some places go to the supermarket to buy something, [found] nothing, but also sold very expensive. Everything is business as usual for staying in low-risk areas. ”
Some netizens suggested on social media to go to the supermarket to buy vegetables in the morning, so as not to run in vain
At present, there is no problem with the supply of daily necessities in the Xiao Pan family, he is not very familiar with the overall supply, but the impression is that "Hong Kong has also checked the supply problem before, and there will be clarification that there are at least three to four months of stock, don't worry too much."
According to information released by the Hong Kong government on February 10, the supply of imported vegetables from the mainland has roughly returned to normal levels, and it is expected that vegetable prices will gradually decline. The reporter inquired about the website of the Hong Kong Vegetable Marketing Office and found that the price of some vegetables began to decline on the 10th, but it was still higher than the price before the Spring Festival.
The epidemic has hit medical resources: nucleic acid testing is in short supply, and isolation facilities are close to saturation
In addition to once affecting the lives of residents, the current epidemic in Hong Kong has begun to impact medical resources.
Previously, the Hong Kong government has taken a series of anti-epidemic measures, including the implementation of regional flight circuit breaker mechanism, the extension of the suspension of offline courses and school activities such as kindergartens, primary and secondary schools in Hong Kong, the call on local enterprises to flexibly handle the work arrangements of employees, and the cancellation of large-scale Lunar New Year activities and New Year's supper markets.
However, due to the Spring Festival and other reasons, social activities and people flow have not decreased significantly, the epidemic began to rise rapidly, the number of new daily confirmed cases doubled in two days, and exceeded 1,000 cases the day before. The latest news shows that on February 11, there were 1325 new confirmed cases in Hong Kong, and about 800 preliminary positive cases are pending final diagnosis.
According to reports, on February 11, the epidemic situation in Hong Kong recorded a new high, with about 1325 new confirmed cases in a single day, and about 800 cases were initially positive
At the same time, the number of cases of unknown source of infection is also rising, and many people are engaged in service industries such as salesmen, cleaners, and security guards. In addition, sewage samples from multiple districts tested positive, and all residents involved needed to undergo nucleic acid testing.
After the spread of the epidemic, the local nucleic acid testing supply exceeded demand, and the "FireEye Laboratory" was restarted, and Guangdong medical personnel also provided support. In addition, the Hong Kong government distributed antigen testing reagents to allow the public to quickly test at home.
Because many patients who test positive for antigens go to the emergency departments of public hospitals for treatment, "the emergency departments in various districts are seriously overloaded, and even affect other emergency treatment services." Lee Lai Ye, chief administrative manager of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, appealed on February 9 that "members of the public with other conditions and mild medical conditions should not seek medical treatment in the emergency department, but should seek family doctors or other private medical services." ”
Li Liye also said that due to the alarming growth rate of the number of confirmed cases, it is necessary to comprehensively consider factors such as condition, long-term medical history, age, and self-care ability to assess whether they need to be admitted to the hospital, so "patients may have to wait for several days before being arranged for hospitalization." Most of the positive patients have no symptoms or mild symptoms, the situation is very stable, I hope that they will wait patiently at home, try to seek the assistance of family and friends, or use the courier service to submit deep throat saliva samples, and the Bureau will also take the initiative to contact the public waiting for admission in the community from that day onwards.
Staff check whether restricted persons have undergone mandatory testing in "restricted areas" in Hong Kong (screenshot on official website)
As the hospital isolation facilities and community treatment facilities have been saturated, the local discharge conditions have been further revised, and patients who have no clinical symptoms to deal with do not have to wait for ten days to be discharged, but can go directly home and undergo 14 days of self-monitoring.
Penny Bay, which was originally used for quarantine for close contacts, has also been converted to isolate patients with no illness, and more community isolation facilities are being opened to receive patients with mild diseases. Close contacts and other relevant personnel have implemented the "Ju'an Anti-epidemic Plan" and changed to home quarantine according to conditions.
After the tightening of the epidemic, the Hong Kong government has further tightened its epidemic prevention policies.
On February 8, the Hong Kong government announced the strictest social distancing control measures since the epidemic, including the closure of religious sites and barbershops for 14 days from the 10th of the same month, and the full implementation of the "vaccine pass" from the 24th, and the public currently needs at least one dose of the new crown vaccine to go to barbershops, shopping malls, etc. In addition, due to the recent multiple cases of cross-family gathering infection, the Hong Kong government has restricted more than two family gatherings in private premises.
At the same time, the Hong Kong government will amend the decree to require employees to have a "vaccine pass" before they can go to work. Refusal to be vaccinated and failure to go to work result in dismissal will no longer be considered "unreasonable dismissal". The Government will also inject HK$26 billion into the Anti-Epidemic Fund to subsidise affected shops, companies or employees.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, Xiao Pan, who works for a human resources company in Hong Kong's Wong Tai Sin district, began working from home in response to the government's epidemic prevention measures on February 4. As far as he understands, there are many enterprises in Hong Kong that currently adopt home work.
Worried about the ferocity of the epidemic, Xiao Pan and his family did not go out for the New Year this year, but he was not very worried, "pay attention to personal cleaning every day, and wear a mask when going out".
Vaccine pass will be fully implemented, Xiao Pan learned that many people have recently gone to the vaccine, they have been vaccinated twice, and then they will get a third injection, so there is no inconvenience in traveling, if necessary, show relevant certificates and vaccination records.
Experts expect the outbreak in Hong Kong to peak in three weeks
The reporter combed the epidemic information released by the Hong Kong government and found that there are currently two chains of transmission in the Hong Kong community: Delta and Omicron. The former may be related to the world's first case of hamster infection on January 19, and the source of the latter may be related to the illegal dinner of former Cathay Pacific crew members late last year and the return of infected people to quarantine hotels on January 20.
Why did this outbreak skyrocket in the later stages of the epidemic? Zhang Hongtao, an overseas scholar and immunology expert, said that the strong spread of Omicron and the Gathering of the New Year are important reasons, and the recent epidemic in Guangxi Baise is also a similar situation. "If there is enough time and the infected people are not well controlled, it is easy to spread a lot at once in the scene where the population is relatively concentrated and the density is relatively high."
Jin Dongyan, a virology expert at the University of Hong Kong, has a similar view. He analyzed that this round of epidemic is particularly important in that the strain is Omikejong BA.2, which spread quickly, "the traceability of close contacts of the flow can not catch up, we see where it comes from, the ins and outs in the front are clear, to the back it is blurred, and it is spread everywhere." ”
Jin Dongyan said that the rapid rise in the number of epidemics is also related to the purchase of more than 10 million sets of rapid test reagents in Hong Kong. Although the sensitivity is poor, it can allow the public to test at home, "if used properly, it is very helpful to find infected people with a high viral load who may cause super transmission, and cut off the super transmission, which is a very good direction, simple, and can also reduce the amount of detection and workload of nucleic acid testing." ”
He also believes that this round of epidemic is related to the strain, the time point, the people's epidemic prevention fatigue and poor cooperation with the government, "a variety of factors have caused the current situation." ”
For the trend of the epidemic, there have been studies that this round of the epidemic may cause 250,000 people to be infected. Some experts also warned that if the outbreak is not controlled within two weeks, the most serious case may be that more than 60% of the entire population will be infected.
"A lot of people say it's an exponential rise now, but it's not, it's still to be seen, and it's going to be watched." Jin Dongyan believes that the Hong Kong government has also taken more stringent measures at present, hoping to work, "in time it can still be controlled." ”
When will this round of outbreaks reach an inflection point? Zhang Hongtao analyzed that the inflection point is theoretically difficult to analyze, but from the perspective of the epidemic in other countries, the epidemic in Omicron is characterized by fast coming and going, "at least three weeks or so can see the peak."
In response to the current situation of the epidemic in Hong Kong, Zhang Hongtao said that the data on the effect of vaccines on the prevention of the epidemic in Aumechjong are now very clear, and it is recommended that Hong Kong quickly carry out intensive injections and approve the two new coronavirus oral drugs that have been approved internationally as soon as possible, so that infected people have the opportunity to obtain drugs.
Hopefully, the outbreak will be contained within a month or two
In view of the possibility and harm of a medical run in this round of the epidemic, Zhang Hongtao believes that the harm to the vaccinated people is not so great, although the number of infected people is large, but the proportion of severe diseases is small, he called for "be sure to let everyone know about this matter, do not be too nervous or worried, impact the hospital, resulting in some unnecessary consumption of medical resources."
He believes that since Hong Kong cannot achieve mandatory quarantine similar to that of the mainland, non-medical isolation is very important. If the people of Hong Kong can act consciously, "the less action is taken now, the easier it will be to promote the control of the epidemic as a whole." ”
Jin Dongyan also proposed that most of the infected people are not highly contagious, so that close contacts, secondary close contacts and suspected positive people are temporarily isolated at home, "you only need to do a good job of personal protection, you do not transmit to others at home, especially not to the elderly." "Of course, if the living conditions are particularly poor, you can ask the government for help to arrange for accommodation in isolation facilities."
However, neither expert agreed with Hong Kong's model of full nucleic acid testing.
Zhang Hongtao symmetrically, according to Hong Kong now even if there is a daily testing capacity of 300,000, according to the standard of full testing in the mainland, a city with a population of 5 million needs more than 10 times the testing capacity of Hong Kong, "Hong Kong can not do this now, only to find a way to find a more accurate (infected person)." ”
Jin Dongyan said that now because of the tension of the epidemic, the public is crowded to test, resulting in many testing points being overwhelmed. But hong Kong's population of 7 million people, the proportion of true positives is very low, "in fact most of the (testing) is not necessary."
"(Hong Kong) to do a (full nucleic acid testing) to do more than a billion, now the number of cases is relatively high, the full testing should be at least like Xi'an more than 10 times, the whole Of Hong Kong stopped for two or three weeks, but also the people do not flow, what he eats, what to do, neither realistic nor good."
In contrast, he believes that rapid testing benefits the public, close to the national test, and if the measures are well coordinated, they can reap the effect of doing more with less.
On 4 February, Hong Kong Security Bureau Director Tang Ping-keung distributed a covid-19 rapid test kit at Anda Place in Yuen Long (screenshot of official website)
Therefore, he suggested that after the distribution of antigen test reagents, it is also necessary to take supporting measures such as encouraging positive cases to take sick leave and get incentives after reporting, so as to more effectively identify the small number of people with high viral loads that may cause super transmission, "find them out earlier, isolate them earlier, this is the most critical." ”
"The biggest problem (at present) is that the vaccination rate for the elderly is too low, which is why the Hong Kong government has introduced vaccine passes." Jin Dongyan reminded that the current vaccination rate of the elderly group in Hong Kong is only about 30%, which is not ideal, and now 3 elderly people have died after infection, in case the virus runs to the elderly group, there will be the situation that they least want to see, "Which is also the reason why it is not possible to give up zero at present." ”
He said it remains to be seen whether the measures will work. "The back is constantly adjusted, starting from reality, I hope it will be controlled in a month or two."
(Xiao Huawei pseudonym)
【Copyright Notice】The copyright of this article belongs to [Observatory Media], today's headlines have obtained the exclusive authorization of the information network dissemination right, and any third party shall not reprint it without authorization.