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- Regarding the US denial that the "Starlink" satellite endangers the safety of China's space station, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said on the 10th that China's astronauts in orbit are facing real and urgent security threats, and the US side shirks responsibility and shifts its attention, which is not the responsible attitude that space powers should have.
- The spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce said on the 10th that he hoped that the US side would cancel the tariffs and sanctions and suppression measures imposed on China as soon as possible to create a good atmosphere and conditions for the two sides to expand trade cooperation.
- The European Commission released a winter economic outlook report pointing out that the EU economy will continue to recover, and the economy is expected to grow by 4.0% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023, respectively.
U.S. inflation data exploded U.S. stocks fell across the board
Before the U.S. local time on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics released January CPI data, of which the nominal CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year, continuing to hit a new high since February 1982, and also significantly exceeded the market's previous expectation of 7.2-7.3%.
Thursday's data also means that U.S. consumers have endured inflation of more than 5 percent for the eighth consecutive month, reflected in rents, food, energy and electricity and other aspects of life. Even excluding core food and energy CPI, it was also up 6% in January. Nominal and core CPI increased by 0.6% sequentially.
According to the official data sub-item, fuel prices rose by 9.5% month-on-month and a staggering 46.5% year-on-year. Overall energy spending increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 27% in the past 12 months, and food prices also rose 0.9% month-on-month in January. Among the core CPI sub-items, used car prices, which have been driving soaring inflation, also rose 1.5% month-on-month in January, and housing spending, which accounts for a third of the CPI, rose 0.3% month-on-month in January, but this is already the lowest increase since August last year.
Andrew Hunter, an economist at Capital Economics, said higher food and housing prices, combined with an extremely tight labor market, reflected that inflation was unlikely to subside in the short term.
Inflation has also led the market to set its sights on the Fed. According to the CME "Fed Watch Tool", the expected probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed FOMC in mid-March has soared to 54% from the previous 24% after the release of the CPI data.
James Knightley, chief economist at ING International, said that this is certainly not good news for the Fed, which aims to pull inflation back to its 2% target. Rate hikes by themselves will not solve the strain on the supply chain, but they will remove some of the overheating factors in the economy, making supply and demand turn more balanced, which will also come at the expense of economic growth.
However, Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital, also gave a negative opinion, saying that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusted the weight of the CPI, slightly increasing the weight of the commodity item based on last year's consumption situation. Considering that consumption is transmitted from goods to services, it means that commodity prices may fall faster than expected in the future, and inflation may be a different picture by the end of the year. Porcelli also believes that a single month's CPI exceeding expectations is not enough to trigger a more aggressive rate hike by the Fed, and they should be more patient.
In terms of U.S. stocks, as of the close, the Dow fell 1.47% to 35241.59 points; the Nasdaq plunged 2.1% at 14185.64 points; and the S&P 500 index fell 1.81% to 4504.08 points.
Real estate is good for the cash flow of housing enterprises "decompression"
On the evening of February 10, it was reported that the national measures for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds for commercial housing (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures") have been formulated recently. If the news is true, the real estate industry will usher in substantial benefits.
As we all know, the "Measures for the Administration of Pre-sale of Urban Commercial Housing" promulgated in 1994 stipulates that "the specific measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing shall be formulated by the real estate management department", and at the same time, "the competent administrative department for construction of provinces and autonomous regions, the competent administrative departments for construction of municipalities directly under the Central Government or the administrative departments for real estate may formulate implementation rules according to these Measures." ”
The biggest difference between the "Measures" mentioned in the above-mentioned news and the relevant provisions in the "Measures for the Administration of Pre-sale of Urban Commercial Housing" issued in 1994 is that the provisions on pre-sale funds have been clearly unified nationwide, which in turn is conducive to standardizing the use of pre-sale funds. It is reported that the "measures" clearly state that "the supervision of the amount of pre-sale funds is "key quota supervision", which is approved by the urban and rural construction departments at the city and county level according to the project cost contract, etc., which can ensure the amount of funds required for the completion of the project. ”
According to the Securities Daily, insiders of a well-known developer said that they had indeed been informed of the "measures". In fact, after the debt default event of well-known housing enterprises, some local governments have excessive supervision of pre-sale funds, such as the situation of zero allocation of funds, and the above documents will correct these behaviors, which is conducive to helping some housing enterprises facing difficulties in capital to alleviate the flow of funds.
On February 8, the beginning of the New Year, real estate ushered in the policy package of the central bank and the banking and insurance regulator.
On February 8, the official website of the central bank disclosed that in order to implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing and strengthening relevant financial policy support, the Chinese Min min bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on The Loans Related to Affordable Rental Housing Are Not Included in the Management of Real Estate Loan Concentration", which clarifies that loans related to affordable rental housing projects are not included in the management of real estate loan concentration, and encourages banking financial institutions to comply with the principles of legal compliance, risk controllability and commercial sustainability Increase support for the development of affordable rental housing.
The central bank said that this move will help banking financial institutions to increase credit for affordable rental housing projects, support the construction of the mainland housing security system, and help promote the establishment of a multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, rent-purchase housing system.
The central bank also revealed that in the next step, the People's Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will accelerate the establishment and improvement of the housing rental financial system, continue to increase financial support for the construction of affordable housing and the development of the long-term rental housing market, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
January financial statistics released M2 yo-yo 9.8% yo-on-year
On February 10, the People's Bank of China released january 2022 financial statistics and social financing data showing that the growth of credit union financing in January achieved a "good start". RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in the same month, which was a single-month statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing reached 6.17 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations and 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, also hitting a single-month record high. Affected by factors such as the strengthening of credit derivation, the growth rate of broad money (M2) in January increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by as much as 0.8 percentage points at the end of the previous month, reflecting the effect of wide money.
After the data was released, the financial markets also reacted. Yields on major interbank bonds rose rapidly, with yields of 2.1 basis points for the 10-year CDB Active (210215) and 1.5 basis points for the 10-year Treasury Active (210017).
Many analysts believe that the overall strengthening of credit union financing in January shows the effectiveness of the previous stable growth policy. It can be believed that the credit expansion effect in the first quarter performed better, and the wide credit will continue to exert force. However, from the perspective of credit delivery structure, the financing situation of enterprises has improved, but the consumer demand of residents is still weak. In the next stage, in view of the problem of insufficient aggregate demand, we should make good use of aggregate and structural policies, strengthen the coordination and cooperation between fiscal policy and monetary policy, reverse market expectations as soon as possible, and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range.
Shenwan Hongyuan macro analysis said that the strong start of credit union financing in January is conducive to dispelling the market's strong concerns about the financing blockage of the real estate industry chain. We have stressed many times in the previous report that we believe that the demand for residential real estate in the mainland has not yet appeared a trend inflection point, and the 21H2 real estate industry chain dilemma is mainly due to the risk exposure of individual housing enterprises to strengthen the rapid contraction of development financing and spread to the side of residential housing loans, so we proposed earlier that as long as the beginning of 2022 can see the "opening of the door" of credit union financing, then in the process of stable demand release, real estate investment is expected to improve from the second quarter, and there is great hope that negative growth in real estate investment can be avoided throughout the year A small positive growth of about 1% for the whole year can be expected. January credit union financing data shows that commercial banks are not sticking to the risk aversion to the real estate industry chain, and some micro-blockages involving the disposal of residential projects are also being actively resolved, and the real estate investment suggestions can be optimistic.
Minsheng Securities analysis said that the financial data released by the central bank also shows that "wide credit" is being deduced as scheduled, even if the traditional credit expansion channels are not yet fully smooth (the proportion of new resident loans in January is still a new low, and the growth rate of residents' medium and long-term loans has expanded year-on-year, proving that real estate is still not stable), credit is also expanding beyond expectations, and real estate means that there is still room for further relaxation in the future. For investors in cyclical stocks, the logic of demand is replacing the logic of supply, from "guaranteeing stable prices" to "stable growth", cyclical investors have also begun to stand on the "friendly side" of the policy, rather than the "opposite".
Source: CCTV News, Securities Daily, Oriental Wealth Network, etc
Editor-in-Charge: BiDandan
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