In the past two days, Lu Jianming, chairman of "Yamao", has risen several times in the "A-share celebrity list".
The reason for the fire is not because the performance of Tongce Medical is less than expected, and the stock price is cut off again; nor is it because it is surprising in public and angry netizens.
What sent Lu Jianming to the hot search was that he disregarded Hangzhou's epidemic prevention policy, and even if he trusted the relationship, he had to go to the Jingshan Temple to burn three incense sticks.
It is inevitable that the melon-eating masses will not be happy, and ordinary people are all abiding by the discipline of epidemic prevention and control in peace and security, but he blatantly violates the prevention and control regulations, and also openly publishes pictures and texts to Versailles.
Source: Network, Lu Jianming's first Weibo post
Is this indicating that there are "Yuan" people in Buddha's Crossing? Or is it flaunting the privileges that money brings?
I don't know, whether Chairman Lu is sincere in faith or lacks peace in his heart...
01
"Lu" on the hot search
Perhaps, Mr. Lu also wondered why he had been pushed to the cusp of public opinion in less than half a year.
The last time it was on the hot search, it was in mid-October last year, Lu Jianming posted 7 posts on the public platform in a row and "mutual pity" with netizens. During this period, there were even words such as "It is our shame that they bought our stock" and "I really can't stand the stench from this mouth that stinks worse than the toilet, and I must pass it quickly."
Source: Network, Lu Jianming on the platform and netizens mutual pity
In addition, in mid-November, Lu Jianming responded to investors' questions about the decline in stock prices, saying, "I just open a store, not fall to 30 and do not buy back." You know, at that time, the company's stock price fluctuated at more than 200 yuan, if it really fell to the price of 30 yuan to actively deal with it, which is equivalent to Tongce falling by more than 90% from the highest point.
And this time, Lu Zong did not speak, and worshiping the Buddha and burning incense also stepped on the "pit".
On February 7, Lu Zong went up to the mountain to worship the Buddha and distract himself, and also sent a Weibo record. However, some netizens found that Lu Zong edited a Weibo twice before and after, first claiming to contact the monks to enter the main hall, and then changing his mouth to say that the partial door was not closed and anyone could enter.
Source: Network, Weibo edited by Lu Jianming
The previous self-proclaimed "contact" monk entered the main hall, but accidentally exposed the "privileged" behavior in front of the epidemic prevention; the information revised later was intended to conceal his violation of the epidemic prevention policy, and there was a great misleading information.
According to the local epidemic prevention policy, during the epidemic prevention and control period, whether it is religious believers, ordinary citizens or tourists, public places will not be received in public places recently. But how did Mr. Lu open up the relationship and enter the temple to burn incense and pray for blessings, which made people think about it.
But some netizens are afraid, a person in the medical industry, blatantly taking the lead in violating the epidemic prevention policy? Some shareholders also joked that opening a hospital to burn incense is to ask people to get sick less?
As the saying goes, there is nothing to climb the Three Treasures Hall. The old school of businessmen believe in Buddhism and have faith, which is understandable, but under the strict control of the epidemic, it is also necessary to rely on the relationship to burn a handful of incense and peace of mind, which can also reflect From the side that Lu Zong is slightly anxious about the future.
02
Fall off the altar
Mr. Lu has been repeatedly sought on the hot search and has been intimidated, perhaps it is just the epitome of Tongce Medical's fall to the altar.
In the past two years, the so-called "Tooth Mao" Tongce Medical Has tortured the shareholders enough. Interestingly, since the "war of words" in October last year, the stock price of Tongce Medical has fallen sharply, and after two consecutive stops, the stock price has fallen by 38%. If you count from the February 2020 high, the stock price has fallen by 64%.
In the second month of the first year of this year alone, Tongce Medical fell by 23%, which is no wonder investors broke their mouths.
In response to that sentence, when the stock price does not stop rising, it is the eternal God; what the stock price falls and falls is the eternal decline. Even in 2018, in the hell mode, Tongce stubbornly rose by 47%, becoming an absolute market star that year.
At the high-light moment when the company's stock price is constantly rising, where does the insult come from? Not only is it reminiscent of the 12 times when the big demon stock Jiuan Medical soared, but there were shareholders who made money and shouted to donate money to motivate employees...
Back to Tongce Medical, which was abandoned by the market, the company's performance growth rate did have a weak trend.
At the time point of the performance forecast disclosure at the end of last month, Tongce did not disclose the performance forecast, which inevitably had the taste of performance that was less than expected. You know, in the first three quarters of 21 years ago, the net profit attributable to the mother of Tongce was 620 million yuan, an increase of 55% year-on-year, and the forecast was not disclosed in the node.
In the first three quarters of 21 years, Tongce's revenue was 2.136 billion yuan, an increase of 44.16% year-on-year. In terms of spin-offs, Q3 revenue increased by 12.44% year-on-year, 19.4% month-on-month, and net profit attributable to the mother increased by 5.88% year-on-year and 44.6% month-on-month.
Looking at the third quarter alone, the single-digit profit growth is quite waterloo, because institutions generally expect at least double-digit growth. Moreover, in the past five years, the year-on-year growth rate of Q3 has been double digits, 74.5%, 50%, 36.5%, 30.7%, and 5.9% respectively.
In the third quarter of last year, due to the severe impact of the epidemic on the first and second epidemics, the outpatient volume rebounded in retaliation, resulting in a sharp increase of 31% over the same period in 2019. In this way, it is indeed not easy to achieve growth in the third quarter of this year on the basis of the high base of last year, but it also shows from the side that the epidemic is not without impact on medical service institutions including Tongce. Look at this year's zero consumption data.
In terms of revenue splitting, Tongce Q3 province and outside the province were 700 million yuan and 72 million yuan respectively, an increase of 10.7% and 13.1% year-on-year. In Zhejiang Province, the revenue of the Q3 regional general hospital (Hangkou) and the regional branch was 219 million yuan and 481 million yuan respectively, an increase of 4.6% and 13.7% year-on-year. Among them, the flagship hospital in Hangkou accounted for 31.34% of revenue, down 2.21% from the same period last year.
We can see that the export of Tongce Medical in Zhejiang Province is successful, while the success of expansion outside the province needs to be further tracked, including Wuhan, Chongqing and Xi'an, which have already opened.
In the first three quarters, the company's gross profit margin was 47.96% and net profit margin was 33.01%, an increase of 1.97% and 2.53% over the same period, both of which set record highs. Looking at Q3 alone, it fell slightly, down 1.95% and 1.89% from the same period. In the first three quarters, the total expense ratio decreased by 1.45% year-on-year to 11.27%, and the company maintained reasonable control over operating costs.
On the whole, the growth rate of Tongce performance has slowed down, but it is not a super thunder in performance, but why does the stock price perform so violently?
03
Set the magic spell
In the past many years, medicine, as a sector with intensive and heavy positions of institutions, has rarely outperformed the performance of mainstream industries, and the vast majority of cases have led the market. But these two years ranked at the bottom, and a group of pharmaceutical white horses also killed many investors.
The stock prices of the leaders who have been collected have fallen to the bottom, and for the dental, ophthalmic and other tracks that have the expectation of collecting, the stock prices of the leaders have also fallen sharply. The impact of collection on the profiteering pharmaceutical industry is not difficult to understand, after all, the medical insurance bureau is facing the risk of collapse of the industry scale, which is bearish for almost all players in the industry, and it is probably only wishful thinking to make up the price with quantity. There are generic drugs in the front, stents, orthopedic consumables, blood perfusion devices, insulin, IVDs...
On the one hand, due to the high valuation accompanied by the overall retracement of the pharmaceutical industry, on the other hand, the market is also expecting that the regulator may intervene in the market, and the certainty of high profits and high growth rates is no longer there, after all, in the macro context of common prosperity, nothing is impossible.
Because of this, in the dental track, the market's expectations for collection are getting stronger and stronger.
From Ningbo in August last year to Sichuan dental implant collection in November of the same year, the signal was only released locally. In January this year, the collection of implants rose directly to the national level. At the executive meeting of the State Council held on January 10, it was mentioned that "the coverage of high-value medical consumables collection has been gradually expanded, and the collection and collection of orthopedic consumables, drug balloons, and dental implants that are of concern to the masses have been carried out at the national and provincial levels." ”
Source: Network, part of the content mentioned by the executive meeting of the State Council
Some netizens joked that a good tooth is equal to a Mercedes-Benz. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to know that a tooth, the price of the main range is located in 7000-22000 yuan, tooth expensive is a common fact. For dental implants to be included in centralized procurement, the voice of the general public is very high. Collecting and reducing prices and reducing the burden of teeth on the masses has become the truest portrayal of the background of common prosperity.
Some shareholders raised the bar, the policy mentions the collection of implants, does not involve the packaging of medical service costs, Tongce Medical is a listed company based on medical services, basically no impact.
It should be known that in the dental implant industry chain, the implant system (implant + implant abutment + repair materials, etc.) accounts for about 75%, and medical services (surgery fee + anesthesia fee) account for 25%. If the price of the planting system "collapses" due to the price of collection and procurement, the price of medical services is unlikely to be strong, and the price reduction is the general trend.
In response to the collection, Tongce Medical launched a low-end dental implant project this year. Obviously, this will reduce the capital market's high growth expectations for the company's future performance.
Although the growth rate in the third quarter was low due to last year's high base, it also showed that the downstream demand side was affected by the macro environment. In the next 4 quarters, or this year, it is too difficult to return to 40% high-speed growth, and the performance will be a high probability.
From the institutional shareholding situation and the change in the number of shareholders, it is not difficult to see that capital is leaving. In the second quarter of last year, tongce fund holdings rebounded to 25.44%. Among them, the impact of quantitative funds should not be small, amplifying volatility. In the third quarter, the fund's holdings quickly fell to 18.56%. The total number of shareholders increased by nearly 44% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, and the chips were further diverged.
04
epilogue
There is no unprovoked love, and there is no unprovoked hate. Tongce Medical fell from the altar, which inevitably made many shareholders hate from love.
In the future, dental implant collection will be promoted at the national level, and as a dental service leader that wants to be rolled out nationwide, the high performance growth is facing great uncertainty. And the high growth rate of performance is the basis for supporting high valuations, without it, first kill the valuation and then say.
At present, although Tongce has fallen by more than 60%, the current valuation is still nearly 70 times.
From an objective point of view, although the performance growth rate of Tongce Medical has slowed down due to changes in industry policies, it is still an industry leader with long-term growth logic, but the previous golden age of lying down to make money and then the stock price will not be more than ten times in three years.
In this regard, the shareholders should be soberly aware, and the leaders should also be soberly aware.
It is better to seek Buddha than to seek oneself, burn three incense sticks, and spend more time pondering the three questions of Tongce Medical", "how is it now, how does the industry look at it, and what to do in the future".