The pig market in 2021 is not satisfactory, its pig price fell to the 5 yuan mark at the lowest, and the loss of pig farmers intensified, even if the consumption of the wax month is good, it still did not drive the pig price higher.
I thought that after the Spring Festival, "New Year and New Atmosphere", but I did not think that the pig price did not continue to rise, but the market accelerated and fell, which made people have a headache.
Today's pig market has fallen for 4 consecutive days, and the price of pigs in many places has fallen to about 6 yuan. In fact, as early as a few years ago, some people predicted that the pig price would not be satisfactory in the next year, and the pig price in February and March would fall to a new low within one year.
01, pig prices fell into the "2-level warning"
Years later, the pig market fell, in fact, it is expected, after all, during the Spring Festival, big fish and meat are eaten too much, and many families still have a lot of hoarding, and the author's family has a lot of bacon and sausages that have not been eaten. As a result, the consumer demand for fresh meat has decreased, there are more leftovers in the wholesale market, and traders are reluctant to stock up, so it is difficult for pig prices to rise.
Today's average pig price is 13.11 yuan / kg, compared with the previous day fell by 0.41 yuan, and among the 28 monitorable areas in the country, except for Hainan, all of them are green and falling, and the decline is larger.
For example, the northeast fell by 0.6-0.8 yuan, and the pig price was 11.8-12.4 yuan / kg, which shows that local pigs are difficult to sell, and there are more leftovers, coupled with the increase in the amount of pigs sold by pig farmers, which has driven the pig price down. North China pigs fell 0.5-0.7 yuan, the mainstream price of 12.3-13.3 yuan / kg; Northwest pigs fell 0.2-0.5 yuan, quoted at 11.1-12.4 yuan / kg.
The southern pig market is also not satisfactory, although the temperature has dropped recently, but the pig price is still accelerating the decline. For example, East China fell by 0.4-0.6 yuan, the mainstream price was 13.6-14.3 yuan / kg; Central China fell 0.3-0.5 yuan, the quotation was 13.2-13.4 yuan / kg; the southwest fell 0.2-0.3 yuan, the mainstream price was 12-13.5 yuan / kg; Liangguang fell 0.1 yuan, the mainstream price was 13.5-14.2 yuan / kg.
Although the cooling of many places in the country in recent days, but still did not drive the vitality of consumption, its pig prices have become more and more falling, resulting in this phenomenon, in the final analysis, due to the sluggish market demand, but the supply has increased, thus making the pig price fall significantly.
It is reported that the current pig-to-food ratio has fallen back to 5.57:1, entering the "2-level early warning range", which means that the cost of raising pigs is too high, the price of pigs is too low, and the pig farmer has to lose about 300 yuan a pig, and the pig price will fall after a year, which also makes many pig farmers discouraged.
02. Will the collection and storage reverse the decline?
Recently, pig prices have accelerated to fall, the main reason is that pork consumption has entered the off-season, but the supply of pigs is more, years ago because of the low pig prices, many people did not sell pigs, coupled with the pig industry itself has recovered, so the production capacity has appeared instead of a residual phenomenon, which is not conducive to higher pig prices.
At the same time, the decline in pig prices after the year has also made many pig farmers less optimistic about the future market, choosing to sell pigs, so that the wholesale market supply is sufficient after the year, and even some pig companies have opened a selling mode, which also gives slaughtering enterprises the opportunity to reduce prices.
Many people may think that the slaughter enterprises are muffled and make a fortune, in fact, the pressure of the slaughtering enterprises is also relatively large, because the price of pigs has fallen, and the slaughtering enterprises have to lose more than 100 yuan per pig, plus more inventory, so they have also begun to reduce prices.
Of course, there are also some slaughtering enterprises that have not yet started, so the willingness to buy is not much, and in the context of pig farmers collectively selling pigs, pig prices will inevitably fall.
However, now the collection of storage has been put on the agenda, and from the perspective of previous years' collection and storage, it can play a role in stabilizing pig prices and inhibiting pig prices from continuing to fall. So, can the collection and storage make the pig market usher in the "red and high"?
In fact, from last year's collection and storage, it can be seen that the collection and storage can only stabilize the pig price and increase the confidence of pig farmers in the future pig market, but it is not easy to drive the pig price to rise sharply, after all, the reserves are limited, and it is only tens of thousands of tons at a time.
To judge whether pig prices rise or fall, it also depends on the relationship between supply and demand, but there are still 2 bearish existence:
1, no holiday stimulation
Now that the annual leave has ended, life has gradually returned to normal, and the demand for pork consumption is not high after each year. One is that everyone saved enough pork years ago, and the other is that there is no incentive for the festival, coupled with the weak diet in the future period of time, which is not conducive to the high price of pigs.
2. Capacity growth
In 2021, the cumulative output of the 13 leading pig enterprises in the mainland has exceeded 100 million heads, accounting for 1/6 of the total output, this year these giants will continue to increase the scale to seize the market, but this is not good news for small and medium-sized pig farmers, as the production capacity continues to increase, pig prices want to rise is not easy, there may be a surplus situation next.
03, another bad news came
At the same time as the pig price fell, the price of soybean meal did not fall, but ushered in a new round of rise years later, which has now risen to the 4200 yuan / ton mark. As for why it is higher, the main reason is that Brazil and Argentina have reduced soybean production due to drought, and they are also the main importers of soybeans in the mainland, which affects the increase in soybean import costs, so domestic soybean meal prices have risen.
Due to the rise in soybean meal prices, feed prices have also begun to rise recently, such as Guiyang Longfeng Tire, Jiangsu Jinkangda, etc. have raised pig feed, with an increase of 50-100 yuan / ton.
The rise in feed prices will further increase the burden on pig farmers, and it is hoped that the collection and storage work can be carried out quickly, so as to stabilize pig prices and reduce pig losses.