On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the number of births in 2021 was 10.62 million, down 1.38 million from the previous year. In recent years, the downward trend of China's birth population has become more and more obvious. The main reasons for this result include the decline in women of childbearing age, the delay in marriage and childbearing among young people, the high cost of childbearing, and the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
So, will the number of Chinese births continue to decline in the coming years? How to reverse the downward trend of China's birth population?
On January 18, a teacher led some children living in the "Hometown" in Xingye County, Guangxi Province, to cut paper during the winter vacation. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao Yiming
The size of women of childbearing age will decline significantly by 2030
Zhai Zhenwu, president of the Chinese Society, explained to nandu reporters that excluding short-term influencing factors, the birth population simply depends on two variables, one is the number of women in the reproductive period, and the other is the change in fertility rate.
In recent years, the total number of women of childbearing age in China has been drastically reduced.
Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced at the press conference of the State New Office that in 2021, women of childbearing age aged 15-49 will be reduced by about 5 million compared with the previous year, of which about 3 million women of childbearing age during the 21-35-year-old fertility boom period will be reduced.
Why is the number of women of childbearing age decreasing? Song Jian, deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center of Chinese Min University, explained that the number of women of childbearing age depends on the size of the previous birth cohort, and the size of the mainland birth population from 1962 to 1975 and from 1981 to 1997 exceeded 20 million, and under the condition of slow change in the level of death, the birth cohort population of different sizes entering the childbearing age period will affect the total number of women of childbearing age.
In short, the size of the birth population 20-30 years ago will change with the size of women of childbearing age 20-30 years later.
"In the coming period, the high birth cohort between 1981 and 1997 will still be the main body of women of childbearing age on the mainland, but the number of women who will subsequently enter childbearing age will shrink, resulting in a continuous decline in the total number of women of childbearing age." Song Jian said.
In addition, the internal age structure of women of childbearing age in the mainland tends to age, "especially the size of women of childbearing age during the 20-34-year-old fertility boom period will decline significantly before 2030, which will bring greater downward pressure to the birth population." Song Jian said.
If the size of women of childbearing age declines and the fertility rate does not increase, the overall size of the birth population declines rapidly.
"In recent years, the fertility rate in the mainland has also declined relatively rapidly, especially the decline in the total fertility rate of one child has offset the effect of the increase in the total fertility rate of the second child, which is the result of the low willingness of the masses to have children, the postponement of the age of marriage and childbearing, and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic." Song Jian said.
"The key to whether the decline in the birth population can be smoothed in the future lies in whether the fertility rate can be improved." Song Jian believes that this requires accelerating the construction of the birth support policy system, alleviating the pressure faced by the masses, promoting marriage and childbearing at the right age, and boosting the level of fertility.
At the Pregnant Women's School of Shijiazhuang Maternity Hospital, pregnant women are trained in pregnant women's health exercises under the guidance of coaches. Xinhua News Agency data map
Declining fertility intentions
At the same time as the size of the population of women of childbearing age is declining, on the other hand, the fertility rate is also declining.
"The direct determinants of the current low fertility rate in China are the continuous postponement of the age of marriage and childbearing and the low willingness to have children." Chen Wei, a professor at the Population and Development Research Center of Chinese Min University, said.
First of all, Chinese women of childbearing age themselves have low willingness to have children.
"The willingness of Women of childbearing age in China is much lower than that of developed countries with low fertility rates." Chen Wei said that in developed countries where fertility rates are lower than replacement levels, most European and American countries have fertility intentions above the replacement level (total fertility rate of 2.1). Even in Japan and South Korea, where fertility rates are lower, fertility intentions are above replacement levels.
What is the fertility intention of women of childbearing age on the mainland?
In May 2021, when the National Bureau of Statistics released data from the Seventh National Population Census, it was announced that the number of children willing to have children among women of childbearing age on the mainland was 1.8.
On January 20, Yang Jinrui, deputy director of the Department of Population and Family of the National Health Commission, disclosed the latest data: the average number of children intended for women of childbearing age was 1.76 in 2017, 1.73 in 2019, and 1.64 in 2021. "The willingness of Women of childbearing age in China continues to decline."
"That number is significantly lower than the turnover level. More importantly, young people who are the main force of fertility in the coming period are less willing to have children. The adjustment of the birth policy, whether it is the implementation of the two-child policy or the three-child policy, has a weak impact on the young population. Chen Wei said.
Midwives of The Maternal and Child Health Hospital in Weifang City, Shandong Province, instruct pregnant women to use childbirth balls to promote natural childbirth exercises. Xinhua News Agency
Marriage and childbearing age may continue to be postponed
While the willingness to have children is decreasing, the age of first marriage and the age of first childbearing of young people is being postponed.
According to the 2017 National Fertility Sample Survey, the average age of first marriage for Chinese women rose from 22 to 24 years in 1990-2000, and further rose to 26.3 years in 2016.
Moreover, unlike in Western countries, China has a very small proportion of extramarital births. In this case, the delay in the age of first marriage leads to a decrease in fertility.
"Delayed marriage increases the likelihood that women will not marry for life, further inhibiting fertility levels." Yang Jinrui said.
Chen Wei previously said in an interview with Nandu reporter that the experience of developed countries and regions shows that the "progress effect" of fertility (that is, the postponement of the age of marriage and childbearing) is the main reason for the downturn and further decline in fertility, and the inhibition effect of the fertility progress effect on fertility can be as long as several decades.
During this period, the fertility rate rises and falls slightly at a lower level, fluctuates and fluctuates, and as the progress effect weakens and disappears, the fertility rate may rise to a certain extent.
Compared with developed countries with low fertility rates, the age of first marriage and childbearing for Chinese women is still low. In 2016, the average age of first marriage for women in Japan, South Korea, Germany, Spain, Sweden and other countries was 30-33 years old, while the average age of first marriage for Chinese women was 26 years old.
This means that in the future, driven by social and economic development, there is still room for further postponement of the age of marriage and childbearing in Chinese women, and the inhibition effect of the "progress effect" on China's future fertility rate will continue to exist.
Population experts believe that with the "95" and "00" after entering the age of marriage and childbearing, their self-awareness is stronger, their concepts are more diverse, and their willingness to have children may be reduced, and the fertility rate may also decline.
Written by: Nandu reporter Wu Bin from Beijing
Editor: Liang Jianzhong