In recent years, Sino-US relations have continued to be tense. Many netizens have also begun a variety of speculations on the Internet, many people believe that the Sino-US war is about to break out, and now both sides are observing the color and waiting for the opportunity. This speculation is actually not unreasonable, after all, the secret war between China and the United States has been fought for a long time. Some people have also pointed out that sino-US relations are now like the relations between the former Soviet Union and the United States, and that Sino-US confrontation is the second Cold War. So is today's Sino-US confrontation a second Cold War? Let's talk about that today.
I have to say that judging from the degree of stalemate in the relations between the two sides today, it really has the feeling of the former Soviet Union and the United States. But in my opinion, the Sino-US confrontation is definitely not the second Cold War.
Earlier, the Washington Post once published a comment about coates, the director of national intelligence in the United States, in which Coates mentioned that the current relationship between China and the United States is not a cold war, even if the two sides really enter the cold war, the United States will not win. At the same time, in the article, Coates analyzes the rumored "Sino-US Cold War" from many sides, and mentions in it that if the United States continues to deal with China in the same way as the former Soviet Union, the United States is likely to fail.
Of course, coates advocates the same approach as the one now applied by the United States, arguing that the "China threat theory" should be played up internationally, and then allies should be pulled together to form groups to fight Against China.
We can see that when the United States is facing China now, no matter what faction has a common understanding, that is, it must be contained, or pull international allies to contain together, whether it is the so-called doves or hawks, the difference is only that the means they want to use are different.
But Adam Smith, chairman of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, said of his views on China that China is a topic that the United States cannot avoid, and even if it is to contain China, it is necessary to avoid starting a new Cold War with China.
Recall how strong the United States was during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, although for a period of time the United States suffered some losses, such as the defeat of the Vietnam War, but in the end it was still the United States that persisted, and the Soviet Union ended up with a disintegration.
Here I would like to correct everyone's perception that in the eyes of everyone, the Soviet Union during the Cold War was quite powerful, even comparable to the United States. But in fact, the national strength of the former Soviet Union is far from that of the United States. Speaking of the national strength data of the United States and the Soviet Union, many people know that at its peak, the GDP of the Soviet Union was high, and even approached 70% of the United States at one time. But in fact, due to institutional problems, the Soviet Union at that time did not form accurate GDP data, and the GDP of the Soviet Union period that everyone now calls it cannot reach 70% of the United States.
It is reported that the Soviet Union's annual GDP is basically only about 40% of that of the United States. So how did this data for 70% of the United States come from? In fact, these data are obtained through the amount of electricity generated, the Soviet Union at its peak, its power generation can reach 70% of the United States, while other aspects, such as industry, agriculture are far from the United States.
It has to be said that at that time, the Cold War was actually carried out in both military and economic aspects. At that time, there were also some problems in the economic model of the former Soviet Union, during the Cold War, the former Soviet Union did not hold a large number of US treasury bonds, and it was not a major trading partner in the UNITED States' foreign trade. Looking at the international community, the world pattern at that time did not form the current globalization, and the former Soviet Union lacked close ties with most countries in the world. So it seems. During the Cold War, the economic exchanges between the United States and the Soviet Union were not close, there was no cooperative relationship, and there was no economic competitive relationship.
Looking at military relations, the reason why the Soviet Union was able to compete with the United States militarily was mainly to invest funds in the military field at any cost, of course, the consequences of this were also seen by everyone, but even so, the Soviet Union at that time was the only country that could compete with the United States, but in the end it was defeated by the powerful comprehensive national strength of the United States.
However, the so-called "Cold War" relationship between China and the United States is not the same thing as the former Soviet Union, and it is impossible to succeed in dealing with China with the same set that was used against the former Soviet Union.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has previously made a statement about the U.S.-China relationship, saying that China is more difficult to deal with than the former Soviet Union. This was said when he visited the Czech Republic and four other Central and Eastern European countries, and he said that the current confrontation with China is different from the confrontation with the former Soviet Union during the Cold War, and Sino-US relations are not the second Cold War.
At present, China's economic strength is not the same as that of the former Soviet Union at that time, and now China's economic strength is too strong, so it is more difficult to deal with than the former Soviet Union, Pompeo mentioned, China has never had a posture and a way to penetrate into his so-called Western economic and social life. I really have to sigh, Pompeo rarely has a sober time, I think he said it completely correctly.
Why did he say that? Let's first look at the economic situation of the two countries, China's economy is strong. Of course, China is not the former Soviet Union, when the former Soviet Union, his economic situation was already very bad, but at that time he also had to fight with the United States, and the so-called Star Wars in the Reagan era at that time. And as we mentioned earlier, the GDP of the former Soviet Union is actually very virtual, and the connection with other countries is not particularly close. In addition, in the face of confrontation with the United States, various arms races further dragged down the former Soviet Union.
China's economy is completely different from the former Soviet Union, China's current economic strength is the world's second largest economy, and we have already surpassed the United States in manufacturing, and formed its own complete industrial chain, and we are also the world's largest foreign exchange reserves of the country.
At present, with the deepening of globalization, China's economy is also moving forward in a steady way, especially since the outbreak of the epidemic this year, many important world economies, their economies are almost negative growth, and China has become the only country in the world to achieve positive economic growth during the epidemic, China is developing faster and faster, and the United States, like Europe, they have been shrinking. So the comparison of economic power is certainly not the state of the former Soviet Union.
Let's look at the specific situation of the Sino-US economy. Before the United States wanted to drag down the former Soviet Union, it could be said that it was easy, only a gust of wind was needed. But now in the face of China, the United States has no confidence to confront, and now China's GDP has reached 74% of the United States. Even if we leave aside the GDP, which may be a bit of an inflated figure, then we look at the most fundamental data that can reflect the comprehensive national strength, that is, the amount of electricity generated. Power generation can be a representative of the country's industrial strength to some extent, and the continent's power generation surpassed the United States in 2011, while the mainland's industrial output also surpassed the United States in this year.
The reason why India may become the next rising country in the world is mainly because the power generation has become the third largest in the world. The United States has actually entered the post-industrial era, the most prominent feature of this era is that many low-end industries have almost moved to some underdeveloped areas, while in the United States itself only leaves some high-end industries with high added value.
But in fact, this phenomenon is actually not good for a country's national strength, such as the American shipbuilding industry, which has long been in decline, and now there are only a few shipyards in the United States, which are still surviving on US military orders. Shipbuilding is such a hard job that Americans don't want to do, and a large number of shipyard skilled workers have moved to other industries.
We all know that American aircraft carriers are quite powerful. But today's shortage of workers is likely to lead to a shortage of labor in the United States. What would happen if U.S. shipyards were short of workers to build a warship? In fact, we have now seen that the United States can only continue to raise salaries to attract talent and encourage a large number of labor to join the manufacturing industry, which may be one of the reasons why US warships are so expensive today.
Crucially, there was a shortage of U.S. shipbuilding labor, a situation that ultimately led to a certain degree of difficulty for U.S. Navy rioters. After all, shipyards are easy to build, but workers are not so easy to cultivate. At present, because the aviation field belongs to a high value-added industry, there is still a certain support for the riot soldiers of the Air Force in the US military, while other services have certain difficulties in terms of riot troops.
At the same time, the integrity of the mainland's industrial system is obvious to all, and what is even more valuable is that there is no shortage of professional manufacturing talents on the mainland. With the industrial strength of the mainland, I really hope that the Navy and Army Tri-Service Rioters may be more relaxed.
That is to say, during the Cold War between the United States and the former Soviet Union, the economic situation in the former Soviet Union was already very bad, which only created an illusion of strength and prosperity for the world. Affected by the international situation, the former Soviet Union's ties with other economies at that time were also slightly loose, so it basically did not form economic cooperative relations. At the same time, the United States was economically powerful, and it was easy to confront the Soviet Union economically.
But today's Sino-US relationship is completely different from the relationship between the United States and the former Soviet Union, China's industrial system is complete, the economic development is strong, especially under the influence of the epidemic, becoming the only country in the world to achieve positive economic growth. At the same time, the economic development of the United States is not very prosperous, and all indications show that the economic development of the United States is not better than in previous years. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult for the United States to achieve a turnaround.
At this point, some people may say that according to the data, the economic data in the United States is on the rise. It is true that in recent years, the economy of the United States has also developed, but it is undeniable that the economic development of the United States is in decline compared with the development of other economies. Therefore, at the economic level alone, China is already much stronger than the former Soviet Union, and the United States has almost no chance of winning if it wants to start a second Cold War with China.
In addition, under the situation of globalization, China has long been closely linked with other economies in the world. Unlike the former Soviet Union, China has entered the socio-economic life of the so-called West in an unprecedented way. In the era of globalization, of course, it is different from the cold war era, the era of globalization is the state of you have me, I have you.
As we mentioned earlier, Pompeo went to the Czech Republic to mention Sino-US relations, and he went to the Czech Republic to fan the flames and incite the Czech Republic to join the Free World Alliance against China. For example, boycotting Huawei's 5G, but I have to say that the United States is really overconfident in diplomacy, in the conversation, the Czech Prime Minister replied to Pompeo, we do not feel any real threat, we are a sovereign country.
As we all know, the Czech Republic's trade with China is now developing very well, and the annual trade volume is close to 20 billion US dollars. And in addition to the European Union, the Czech Republic's largest trading partner is China, and in recent years, China has invested a lot in the Czech Republic under the impetus of the Belt and Road Initiative.
It can be said that among all the Central and Eastern European countries, Chinese investment in the Czech Republic is at the forefront.
In this case, the Czech Republic itself is also very clear, and all other Central European countries are very clear, if they want to go to war with China, economic cooperation, trade cooperation, and especially if they want to restrain the impact of the fight against the epidemic on their own economy, they must put their own political positions straight. After enjoying the dividends brought by "Chinese wisdom", many countries have actually tended to build a community with a shared future for mankind.
Therefore, in the era of globalization, countries themselves actually want to dilute this hegemonic ideology, but in recent years, it can be seen from the various acts of the United States that the United States is now holding high the ideological banner in the international community in an attempt to implement its own hegemonism.
Now the United States has to bring Out China and say that China is a socialist system and is under the leadership of the Communist Party, and the United States must now emphasize this point to engage in McCarthyism. In fact, in the era of globalization, we should uphold an inclusive attitude, and various social systems and political systems should coexist in the era of globalization. All kinds of political and social systems do not matter at all about being advanced, nor is it a question of who is good and who is bad. However, in such an era of globalization, the US side has constantly resorted to various tricks in an attempt to go against the times and to describe the controversy of various systems as an era of ideological confrontation, which can only be said to be a reversal of history.
From the current international situation, we can also see that the United States is constantly pulling together gangs and factions in the international arena in an attempt to vigorously engage in unilateralism, which is obviously gradually losing the hearts and minds of the people under the great wisdom of China's Belt and Road Initiative.
So, Pompeo mentioned that it is much more difficult to deal with China than the former Soviet Union, because China is not the former Soviet Union, and this fact is clear and the reason is clear. Whether it is from the perspective of economic strength or from the perspective of the development of the times, China cannot speak in the same way as the former Soviet Union, and with the changes of the times, the world situation has also undergone corresponding changes, the United States has long been not alone in the center of the stage, and China's wisdom has gradually been recognized by the world.
However, we cannot expect too much from such reasonable remarks made by senior US officials, nor can we expect these senior US officials to be kind. It is not difficult to guess that their purpose of rendering China's strength and strength in various countries is most likely to create a "China threat theory", and in this regard, our side should do a good job in diplomatic work, want the world to contribute "Chinese wisdom", let the world see China's strength, and the hegemonism of the United States will eventually end with the development of the times.