The global smartphone market is gradually emerging from the recession exacerbated by the pandemic in the past two years. In 2022, the smartphone market will further show signs of recovery, JW insights believes that in 2022, as the epidemic is further controlled, the capacity supply problem is gradually alleviated, and it is expected that global smartphone shipments will reach 1.4 billion units.
In 2022, with Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, glory, etc. gradually advancing to the high-end market, domestic mobile phone manufacturers will focus more on creating differentiated competitiveness around innovative technologies and committed to increasing the average price, which will promote the further popularization of innovative technologies including under-screen cameras, folding screens, and fast charging in mobile phone products.
Market pick-up The epidemic is still uncertain
Global smartphone shipments have been on the decline since they peaked in 2017, and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019 has exacerbated this trend.
In 2021, although the mobile phone market as a whole achieved slow growth, the epidemic in India, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions has recurred, and the Blizzard in Texas in the United States, the earthquake in Japan, etc. have brought problems such as component shortages and price increases, resulting in the global mobile phone market shipments in 2021 still not meeting expectations, about 1.3 billion units.
In 2022, global economic activities are gradually back on track, and due to the demand for 5G mobile phone replacement in the European and American markets, the continuous conversion of functional machines to 4G in emerging markets such as India and Africa, the global mobile phone market is expected to pick up and return to the level before the epidemic in 2019.
Combined with the judgments given by a number of research institutions and the analysis of JW insights, it is expected that the global smartphone shipments will reach 1.4 billion units in 2022, of which 5G mobile phone shipments will reach 600-650 million units.
JW insights believes that the repeated outbreaks caused by virus mutations and the fluctuations in the global economy will still bring great uncertainty to the global mobile phone market in 2022, and the shortage of stocks will continue to affect the mobile phone market in 2022.
At present, judging from the judgment given by mobile phone chip companies, the problem of stock shortage will be alleviated in 2022. Qualcomm has gradually increased its investment in TSMC and ensured the supply of advanced process chips through the production capacity of diversified foundries. MediaTek said that it is expected that after 2023, the new production capacity will be opened, and the problem of tight supply will be clearer. Compared with the main chip of the mobile phone, the shortage is mainly concentrated in the power management IC, driver IC, touch IC, MCU and other components.
In the case of out-of-stock and price increases, if the mobile phone manufacturer fails to effectively pass on the cost to consumers, it may lead to corresponding adjustments in the design of mobile phones.
TrendForce research shows that the number of lenses on smartphones will decrease in 2022, three lenses will replace four lenses as the mainstream design in the next 2-3 years, and the shipment of smartphone camera modules in 2022 is expected to reach 4.92 billion units.
Strategy Analytics' expectations for phone prices
Due to out-of-stocks, price increases, freight rates and other reasons, the cost of mobile phones has risen sharply, which has also pushed up the average price of mobile phones this year, and the report released by Strategy Analytics shows that the global wholesale price of smartphones will increase from $279 in 2020 to $310 in 2021, an increase of 11% year-on-year, reaching the highest average price in the smartphone industry since 2013.
But Strategy Analytics believes that in 2022, the average price of the global smartphone market will decline, due to the ease of stockouts, and Apple's launch of an updated iPhone SE in 2022, which will push phone prices back.
The pattern has not changed to seize Huawei's market space
The top five manufacturers in global smartphone shipments in 2021 are: Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo. This pattern should be continued in 2022.
TrendForce's forecast for 2022 manufacturer shipments
According to TrendForce's forecast, the top five mobile phone manufacturers and shipments in 2022 are: Samsung 276 million units, Apple 243 million units, Xiaomi 220 million units, OPPO 208 million units, vivo 149 million units.
From the perspective of 2021, the market share of smartphone manufacturers that ship TOP5 in the world has reached double digits, while in 2019, there are only two brands, Samsung and Apple. Since Huawei withdrew from the mobile phone market, more Chinese mobile phone brands have tried to fill the space left by it.
Xiaomi surpassed Apple for the first time in Q2 2021 to become the world's second, continuing its high growth performance, while the proportion of Xiaomi's overseas sales has gradually increased, compared with OPPO and vivo, Xiaomi may benefit more from overseas markets in 2022.
In the 2022 market landscape, one of the highlights is the competition between Samsung and Apple.
In 2021, Samsung's high-end model Galaxy S series performance was not satisfactory, shipments mainly rely on Galaxy A and M series, the epidemic caused by the decline in production capacity in Vietnamese factories, chip shortages and other issues affected Samsung's performance in 2021. But Samsung is very bullish on the prospects for 2022 and has set ambitious targets. According to The Elec, Samsung recently shared its 2022 smartphone shipment plan with some suppliers, expecting to ship 340 million units, of which 285 million units will be produced by itself, with a target market share of 21.9%.
At the same time, Apple also plans to launch an upgraded version of the iPhone SE in 2022, according to foreign media reports about 3,000 yuan, the price is more competitive, trying to seize the high-end market as much as possible.
From the perspective of the industry, the vacuum left by Huawei's partial withdrawal from the market in 2020-2021 has not been filled. This may be the reason why Apple and Samsung are focusing on market share in 2022.
In addition, in 2020, TRANSSION once shipped 174 million units, ranking fourth. Shipments in 2021 ranked sixth, and Honor's market share rebounded significantly in the second half of 2021, and in 2022, these two manufacturers may launch an impact on the TOP5.
De-homogenization focuses on differentiated competition
As a result of the early and successful control of the epidemic, the Chinese market has recovered from the epidemic. According to the latest data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, about 351 million domestic smartphones will be shipped in 2021, an increase of 13.9% year-on-year. But overall, including China and other markets for 5G replacement is not strong, resulting in an extension of the replacement cycle,
At the same time, due to the shortage of upstream raw materials caused by the epidemic in the past two years, the average price of mobile phones is constantly increasing. Coupled with Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and other manufacturers trying to compete for the market left by Huawei, major mobile phone manufacturers are seizing the high-end market and focusing more on differentiated competitiveness.
From 2021 onwards, under-screen cameras and folding mobile phones will begin to enter the room, and in 2022, these innovative technologies will be developed on a large scale.
2021 is known as the "first year of under-screen camera", and the under-screen camera mobile phone products include: ZTE Axon 30 5G, Xiaomi MIX4, Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 3, OPPO has also released the next generation of under-screen camera technology. In 2022, with the further maturity of under-screen camera technology, OPPO, vivo, and honor are also expected to launch off-screen camera products.
Research institute Cinno expects that after the continuous iterative improvement of the under-screen camera scheme, it will become the two mainstream technologies in the future market with the punching scheme, but in the short term, the market share is relatively small, and it is expected that the penetration rate of the under-screen camera in 2022 will be 2%.
In addition, folding screen mobile phones are also another highlight of 2022.
In 2021, Folding screen mobile phones such as Huawei Mate X2, Xiaomi MIX FOLD, Samsung Galaxy Z Flip3/Flod3, OPPO Find N, Honor Magic V, and Huawei P50 Pocket have been released. According to the survey data of the market research agency DSCC, in the third quarter of 2021, the total shipment of folding screen mobile phones increased by 215% month-on-month and 480% year-on-year, and it is expected to be close to 17.5 million shipments in 2022.
DSCC's expectations for the shipment of folding screen mobile phones in 2022
At CES2022 held this year, TCL has demonstrated folding screen products, Samsung has also launched an "S" folding phone, and it is expected that the folding screen mobile phone of vivo and realme will also be released in 2022.
Folding screen products displayed by Samsung at CES2022
JW insights believes that as the size of the mobile phone is close to the limit, the hinge design is gradually maturing, the targeted optimization of the software and hardware level, the folding screen has become a new direction for the development of the industry, and 2022 will open the "folding screen first year" of the real scale shipment, and the folding screen mobile phone will usher in explosive growth. (Proofreading/Andrew)