After the return of the Spring Festival holiday, most of the global commodity stock market is mainly rising, the market sentiment is better, and the snail is on the basis of the high end of the market before the festival, and the morning trend is high. From a fundamental point of view, the steel spot market during the festival is basically stagnant, the current pattern still maintains the weak situation of supply and demand before the holiday, how will the supply and demand ends of rebar develop after the holiday, and where will the futures price go?
The impact continues with limited thread production
From the supply point of view, before the holiday in the electric furnace start of a significant decline in drag, thread production has declined, the overall output may maintain a low level of operation, the cost of iron ore by the impact of the sharp rise in iron ore significantly rebounded, steel mill profit compression. In terms of data, in the last month before the festival, the steel federation statistics 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate of 74.86%, month-on-month increase of 3.85%, capacity utilization rate of 81.51%, month-on-month increase of 5.72%, the average daily output of molten iron 2.1935 million, month-on-month increase of 163,400 tons, the weekly output of the five major varieties of steel union statistics of 9.1349 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons month-on-month. In the short term, production is expected to be affected, and steel mills may have to wait until March.
Seasonal influences remain market confidence remains
On the demand side, the seasonal decline in pre-holiday demand is only supported by winter storage and replenishment, and the current seasonal impact is still there, and the traditional off-season may continue until the end of February. According to the data, the apparent consumption of the five major varieties of steel was 7.5709 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4776 million tons, and the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.4762 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2011 million tons. At present, the weak consumption under seasonal factors is expected to continue, but the market expectation is strong, and the confidence of steel consumption improvement in the future market still exists, and it is necessary to wait for the verification of the recovery of actual demand around March.
Inventory growth is limited and the status is still good
Finally, in terms of inventory, due to the current low output and limited increase in inventory, the inventory level is still at a low level in the same period of recent years and is in good condition. In terms of data, the steel federation statistics on Friday's large varieties of steel inventory of 15.5245 million tons, an increase of 2.5672 million tons month-on-month, an annual decrease of 3.8921 million tons, the total inventory of rebar 7.0855 million tons, an increase of 1.8762 million tons month-on-month, an annual decrease of 1.8316 million tons.
summary
After the return of the holiday, thread production remained low, the demand side was still affected by the seasonal off-season performance was weak, the inventory was good, the real fundamental supply and demand were weak, the macro expectation support was still there, and the thread performance was strong.
Follow-up, February rebar production constraints increased, the real resumption of production may wait until March, while the demand side of the recovery is expected to take time, supply and demand may continue, but under the policy stable growth expectations, after March real estate completion and the release of infrastructure demand is still worth looking forward to, short-term trend to maintain shocks to look at waiting for the actual demand to cash in, follow-up the main observation point is the recovery of demand progress and the possibility of further stimulation of macro policies, pay attention to the recovery of real demand is less than expected, The risk of lagging behind the time it takes for steel mills to resume production.
■ Some of the data in this article comes from CITIC Futures, Minmetals Futures, Luzheng Futures, Huatai Futures, Wenhua Finance, Msteel, Wind, for reference only, does not represent the views of the platform and the institutions, and is at your own risk. The futures market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious!