Today (January 29) evening, many places in the south, especially in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, re-turned snow, after the snow in Nanjing, which was "pigeon-released" by the blizzard, was dense, and the temperature was close to 0 degrees. However, this is the last bit of water vapor, and by January 30, this round of extensive rain and snow will come to an end.
Quzhou Mountain during the day on January 29, from China Gas Love Weibo
Overall, the current round of snowfall in the south is not as expected, of which Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui have a greater deviation. The reason may be that under the interference of the strong typhoon embryo, the "north warp" of the south branch trough is strong, resulting in a high temperature in the bottom layer of East China, while the 700 hPa water vapor transport is reduced, which causes a chain error; it is also believed that due to the reduction of the number of flights due to the epidemic, the initial field data density frequency quality of the supercomputer mode is affected, and the prediction error increases.
Typhoon Embryo 91W cloud map on the evening of January 27, from the Fengyun 4 satellite
The prediction of blizzards and even the phase transition of rain and snow has always been a problem, especially in the south of the continent, when the cold air is not so strong and the warm and humid airflow is particularly strong, the slight difference is the difference between heavy blizzard - super heavy blizzard and medium to heavy sleet (no snow, no ice). In the case of exactly the same total precipitation, the former will cause great traffic and social impact, but the latter mainland can easily cope with it.
24-hour precipitation at 8 p.m. on January 29, from NMC
Because of this, in the event of the possibility of blizzards or snowfall above the order of magnitude, and in the critical period of the Spring Festival, it is an inevitable choice to make predictions at the upper and middle of the possibilities and remind the public to pay close attention and be prepared. Of course, if the Blizzard prediction fails, it will make friends who are hoping for snow feel emotional, which will increase some disaster prevention and redundancy costs--- but this cost is acceptable compared to the huge risks that may result from not predicting and not being prepared.
January 29, Zhejiang Deqing Moganshan snow scene, from @ veteran Viagra
Not to mention, no matter how disappointed you are, it will not endanger your life, and the sudden fall of the blizzard may really endanger your life. This is the profound meaning of "I would rather hear scolding than crying". We must coexist with errors and make the most favorable decisions and actions in errors, and strive to reduce errors – but this is a long-term process.
Chinese New Year's Eve the situation in Asia and Europe, CIC Ai produced based on ECMWF data
When this round of rain and snow is not completely over, another round of west wind trough activity will follow, a large amount of water vapor will pour into the mainland, and a new wave of large-scale rain and snow will start in the southwest; at the same time, a small cold vortex will pass through Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea vapor will enter a corner of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia, bringing a wave of snowfall.
Chinese New Year's Eve the situation in North China, AND ISAI is based on ECMWF data
Because of this, on the night of the twenty-eighth and Chinese New Year's Eve of the New Year, snowflakes may be seen on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Xiangxi, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Liaoning and other places; and from the beginning of the New Year, snowflakes will also drift along the Yangtze River, all the way to the east, Hubei Jiangxi Anhui and Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and may also rain or pure snow; and stronger water vapor will fight with cold air in Guangdong, Fujian and other places. In any case, the whole Spring Festival holiday, the south is wet and cold boundless state, a rare cold Spring Festival is coming.