Introduction: The real estate industry is known as the "golden nine silver ten", and these two months of each year are the peak season for property sales. In fact, these two months are also the peak season of pig prices over the years, the most typical is that the pig price in 2019 soared in September and October, creating the highest stage profit in the history of pig raising, and then less than half a month to September, can pig prices create the glory of 2019? In the face of the unknown price of pigs, some people sell pigs and some people copy the bottom, then who will get rich and who will regret it?
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="3" > why does the pig price also have "gold nine silver ten"? </h1>
The key point of the pig price "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is the increase in consumption, there is an important festival in September, the Mid-Autumn Festival, the longest holiday outside the Spring Festival in October, and then the large and small schools are basically opened in early September, and pork is changed from scattered consumption of families to centralized consumption in school canteens, which will stimulate consumption to a certain extent.
The supply is also relatively low in September and October, but this low is different from July and August, and the low level in July and August is due to the fact that the pigs out of the pen are born in the cold season, and the survival rate of piglets is low. The lows in September and October were due to the impact of heat stress on the pigs during the high temperature season, the decline in feed intake, and the slowdown in growth rate.
In this way, the supply side is at a low level in the middle of the year, but the demand is at a relatively high level, and the two ends of supply and demand have jointly created a "golden nine silver ten" pig price market.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="21" > someone sells pigs, someone reads the bottom</h1>
At present, it has entered the second half of mid-August, and it is very close to September, that is, it is not far from the pig dividend period, but the operation of pig farmers is diametrically opposite, some people choose to read the bottom, not only do not sell pigs to reduce production capacity, but go against the trend to supplement gilts, and even copy the bottom of the secondary fattening.
This is not a pig friend in the forum to share their bottom of the secondary fattening operation, although the local non-plague is not particularly stable, there is a hidden trend of spread, but the non-plague has not become an obstacle on his way to supplement the fence. Taking advantage of the opportunity of pig dealers to reduce the price of more than 300 kilograms of large pigs to 7.4 yuan, a wave of secondary fattening was copied at the bottom, and a total of 297 large fat pigs were purchased from two pig farms at a price of 7.6 yuan, with an average weight of 315 kilograms and an average weight of 325 kilograms. And spend a lot of money to hire the owners of two pig farms to continue to help raise, a month to pay two wages of 28,000 yuan and pen rental costs.
Some people read the bottom of some people sell pigs, compared to raising a few sows and professional fattening farmers, the elimination and replacement of sows in medium-sized self-breeding pig farms needs a process, considering the current and future pig price market in the next year or two, some pig farmers have little confidence in pig prices, especially last year and the first half of this year, high-priced new people who entered the pig industry, the loss can not stand can only take the initiative to quit.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="22" > who will get rich and who will regret it? </h1>
Since there are people selling pigs, and there are people who have different operations of copying the bottom, then there will be people who take advantage of the opportunity to get rich, and there will be people who regret it, so is it the regret of selling pigs or the regret of copying the bottom? This depends on the subsequent pig price trend. In July, some experts predicted that pig prices will usher in a phased rise in the second half of the year, and will rise to the normal profit level.
According to Xin Guochang, a second-level inspector of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, although the number of pigs increased in July, the increase has narrowed for five consecutive months, and the month-on-month increase in July was only 0.8%. Due to the long-term decline in pig prices, as well as the impact of high costs and epidemic risks, pig profits are in a long-term loss state, and the stock of fertile sows in July fell for the first time after 21 consecutive months of rising, down 0.5% month-on-month. For the pig industry is good news, after all, the decline in sow stock means that the pig stock in the next six months will decline, compared to the previous aimless hope to rise, the current hope for the rise has a clear timeline.
In addition, according to relevant media statistics, although many pig farms are adjusting the structure of sow stocks, there are not many people who really withdraw from the pig industry, which is why the current pig prices are not ideal, and they also face huge risks, and the sow stocks only decline in a narrow range.
At present, the bottom of the secondary fattening will normally wait until 2-3 months out of the barn, that is, 10-11 months out of the barn, from the current national pig production capacity situation, then the pig price is possible to recover to more than 9 yuan. Although it seems that the price of pigs has risen by more than a dollar, for self-breeding pig farms, it is only from loss to capital preservation, so self-breeding pig farms eliminate sows, especially low-capacity sows are still the right choice, and will not regret.
And for the bottom of the secondary fattening of the pig farm, the current bottom price is basically around 7.5 yuan, the large fertilizer meat ratio is calculated according to 4.0, the feed is calculated according to 1.7 yuan, the cost of meat making is 6.8 yuan, plus water and electricity, labor and other costs, 7 yuan can protect the capital, if it can rise to 9 yuan as predicted by experts, wait until 500 pounds out of the bar, then the bottom of the 300 pounds can earn 450 yuan, the follow-up long 200 pounds can earn 400 yuan, a pig can finally earn 850 yuan, the profit is very impressive. Even if the pig price fails to rise to 9 yuan as predicted by experts, it is still maintained at about 7.5 yuan as it is currently, and it can basically protect the principal without obvious losses. From this point of view, the current bottom of the secondary fattening is an opportunity to make a fortune.
In general, the current bottom-reading pig farm has the opportunity to get rich, and regret is unlikely. Those who eliminated sows have no chance to get rich, and the possibility of regret is not likely. Many times, making money or not is not based on feelings, before the calculation, many people may think that the bottom of this market is a "fool", but after analysis and calculation we found that it is the real smart person who is now the bottom.