Xiang Haoyu: Is Japan still the "first echelon ally" of the United States?

Source: Global Times

On the 21st, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Joe Biden held their first meetings by video. Judging from public information, apart from announcing the establishment of an economic version of the "2 + 2" mechanism, the contents of the talks were nothing new, and the two sides continued to preach the importance of the US-Japan alliance, to strengthen "free and open Indo-Pacific" cooperation, to repeat the same cliché on China-related issues, to "express concern" for China's maritime activities and military development, and to emphasize "the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," reflecting the negative policy orientation of still seeking to join hands to curb China.

U.S. President Joe Biden infographic. Image source Visual China

Although both sides have not departed from the "alliance relationship" in three sentences, some of the trends revealed before the US-Japan summit meeting are intriguing, and people cannot help but wonder: Is Japan still in the "inner circle" of the United States?

From the perspective of the US side, at the beginning of Biden's inauguration last year, he focused on rebuilding the alliance system, increased his dependence on Japan, and deliberately took advantage of Japan's so-called "security concerns" about the Diaoyu Islands and Taiwan-related issues to build it into a "vanguard" in curbing China. In April last year, After talks with Suga, Biden issued an "ambitious" joint statement declaring the U.S.-Japan alliance a "global partnership for the new era" and launching a vicious and groundless attack on China-related issues.

With the passage of time, the current Biden administration is in internal and external difficulties, facing pressure from the midterm elections at home, busy dealing with inflation and declining support rates, and criticized for withdrawing troops from Afghanistan externally, and the signing of the Security Initiative (AUKUS) between the United States, Britain and Australia has triggered internal rifts among allies. Against this backdrop, the Biden administration's focus on Japan is also declining. Kishida's attempt to visit the United States as soon as possible since he took office has been unsuccessful, ostensibly because of the epidemic, and some media have revealed that Biden actually wants to give priority to domestic affairs and "has no time to receive". Some commentators in Japan have pointed out that the Biden administration still attaches the greatest importance to the "Anglo-Saxon Alliance" in its global strategy, and Japan has fallen to the "second echelon".

From the Japanese side, Kishida and Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshinori, as moderate factions within the Liberal Democratic Party, are interested in distance from the right-wing conservative forces headed by Shinzo Abe in terms of domestic and foreign policies, and have shown a willingness to improve relations with their neighbors. In his previous policy speech, Kishida on the one hand declared that he "should advocate this proposition and demand responsible action" against China, while also stressing that "this year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, and hopes to establish constructive and stable relations." On some sensitive China-related issues, Kishida has maintained basic policy rationality in the face of strong pressure from right-wing forces and has not dared to openly touch China's red line.

Against the backdrop of covid-19 and U.S. competition against China, bilateral trade between China and Japan is growing against the trend and is expected to reach a record high in 2021, highlighting the reality of increasingly close economic ties between China and Japan. At the beginning of the new year, the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) marks the first time that China and Japan have realized a free trade arrangement, which will play an important role in boosting China-Japan and even the entire Asia-Pacific economic and trade cooperation. In stark contrast, the United States stubbornly refuses to return to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and intends to start another "Indo-Pacific economic framework", which makes the Japanese side feel helpless and disappointed.

At present, there are at least three problems that may affect the "centripetal force" of the US-Japan alliance.

The first is the issue of the epidemic. Recently, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in Japan has expanded, and the number of new infections per day has reached a new high, and the source of this wave of the epidemic is the US military stationed in Japan. In order to prevent the Omicron strain, Kishida adopted an unprecedentedly strict "lock-in" policy after coming to power, but because the entry of US troops into japan was not subject to Japan's epidemic prevention policy, the virus "took advantage of the void" and expanded rapidly in Japan. This has also triggered harsh criticism in Japan of the special status of the US military in Japan.

The second is the issue of nuclear proliferation. Since Kishida came to power, he has revived the "world without nuclear weapons" initiative, urged Japan and the United States to jointly issue a joint statement on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, called on leaders of various countries to visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and tried to increase the containment of China and Russia with the issue of nuclear disarmament. But on the other hand, the United States, Britain and Australia to promote AUKUS is contrary to this, and if the United States seeks to carry out military nuclear technology cooperation with Japan in the future, it is bound to touch Japan's anti-nuclear sensitive nerves.

The third is the issue of bases. Recently, the United States and Japan have accelerated their military deployment in the southwest, and the problem of disturbing the people and security risks brought about by the frequent training exercises of US troops in Japan have intensified, which has increased anti-base sentiment in Japan. At the urging of the US side, the Japanese government forcibly promoted the construction of the okinawa border field ancient US military base and purchased Mamao Island for the construction of a US military carrier-based aircraft base, which caused strong local opposition.

At a deeper level, the root cause of the subtle changes in Japan-U.S. relations lies in the accelerated evolution of the balance of power between China and the United States. In the face of all-round oppression by the United States, China has shown strong resistance to pressure, which has had a profound psychological impact on Japanese society. Some policy elites have gradually realized that Japan should face up to the reality of China's rise, and cannot "bet" on the United States with its entire wealth, and that strategic binding with the United States needs to leave room for maneuver and an appropriate balance between China and the United States.

At the same time, we need to have a clear understanding of the direction of the US-Japan alliance in containing China, and the struggle with the US-Japan alliance is of a long-term arduous nature. On the one hand, it is necessary to firmly safeguard national sovereignty and security interests, but at the same time, we must maintain strategic self-confidence, strive to develop ourselves, and actively contribute to deepening Asia-Pacific cooperation. It is believed that in time, the momentum of the US-Japan alliance to contain China will eventually be exhausted. (The writer is a distinguished researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, China Academy of International Studies)