Straight news: The US and Russian foreign ministers held an emergency meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, today (January 21), the current situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border is highly tense, and the Western media are hyping up the imminent outbreak of war.
Special Commentator Guan Yao: Whether Russia and Ukraine will move towards all-out war is the biggest suspense in the world at the beginning of the year. After three rounds of dialogue between Russia and the United States, NATO and the OSCE last month, there has been no progress or breakthrough, it should be said that the military struggle and deployment of the two camps are fully strengthened. Just a day before the foreign ministers' dialogue, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it would carry out the largest naval exercise from this month to next month, involving all Russian naval fleets, covering all surrounding waters from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean, from the Mediterranean Sea to the North Sea of Okhotsk, using 140 warships, 60 fighters, tens of thousands of officers and men, and so on. This is, of course, the clearest military signal. As far as the NATO camp is concerned, military changes are also frequent. Reuters broke the news that the United States has issued permission for the three Baltic countries to export US-made stockpiled weapons to Ukraine, and the United Kingdom has begun to provide so-called anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.
It may seem like war is on the verge of breaking out, but there are a few signals that deserve special attention. Just today, on the occasion of the meeting between the US and Russian foreign ministers in Geneva, the spokesman of the Russian State Duma announced that it would hold consultations with the Luhansk Republic next week on whether to recognize the independence of Wudong, but Russian presidential spokesman Peskov responded quickly, saying that at this stage it should avoid taking actions to promote regional tensions. Blinken and other senior US officials and Western media have beaten the drums of war and warned Russia that military action is on the string, but at least from the perspective of Russia's official expression, it is still emphasizing that there is no intention to use force, and russia still adheres to the two bottom lines that require the West to provide security guarantees: NATO's eastward expansion must stop in Ukraine, and strategic weapons must not enter Russia's neighboring countries. Therefore, in my opinion, the smooth passage of diplomatic dialogue also means that the door to alleviating the crisis has not been completely closed.
Straight News: The "small-scale invasion" theory thrown out at the Biden White House press conference triggered a storm of public opinion, and the Ukrainian president also tweeted a rebuttal, saying that there is no distinction between big and small military invasions.
Special commentator Guan Yao: Biden met with reporters at the White House on Wednesday for two hours, known as a marathon press conference, Biden said when talking about the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, it is estimated that Putin will take military action against Ukraine, but he warned that the Russian side will pay a heavy price, putin will regret the decision to use force. Then controversy arose, and Biden seemed to want to distinguish between military operations by intensity and scale, that is, under the invasion, that is, "invasion", and the minor incursion, the so-called "small-scale invasion", and when asked by the reporter about the specific meaning, Biden replied that "the Russian army crossed the border to kill Ukrainian soldiers." But the theory of a "small-scale invasion" clearly touched the nerves of the European continent, especially Ukraine, which is at the forefront of the military confrontation.
Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian border 100,000 troops, senior US officials in these days took turns to shout that Russian military strikes are imminent, at this high-risk moment the US president threw out a "small-scale invasion" said, the implication is that the United States has room for reaction to Russia's military actions, and even the camp has controversy over how to respond, the Ukrainian regime of course feels that it has been betrayed, yesterday Ukrainian President Zelensky tweeted directly to Biden, We want to remind the great powers that there is are no minor incursions and small nations, we would like to remind the big countries that there is no such thing as "small invasion" and small countries. I noticed that Biden changed his tune yesterday, stressing before another infrastructure meeting that once the Russian military crosses the Russian-Ukrainian border, it is a military invasion, and russia will face a strong and coordinated economic counterattack. "Too many words must be lost, frequent slips of the tongue is Biden's conversation, so this so-called "small-scale invasion" is really another Biden slip of the tongue that the US media has identified? I don't see it that way.
Straight News: Why don't you think the "small-scale invasion" statement is a mistake biden's lipstick, so why did he say it?
Special commentator Guan Yao: Yes, the previous Biden-style verbal errors will trigger fire extinguishing operations, and this time the fire fighting operation seems to be larger, Biden himself said the opposite yesterday, the White House also issued a statement, emphasizing that crossing the line is invasion, and even NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg also stressed in Berlin yesterday when he met with the Foreign Minister of the United States that Biden's view of giving the green light to Putin's low-intensity military operations is not valid, and Europe's response position is consistent and uncompromising.
In fact, for the Ukrainian government, Biden's so-called "small-scale invasion" has revealed the cruel truth to a certain extent, and one of Uncle Sam's usual expressions, that is, the inconvenient truth, is the so-called "inconvenient truth". Today's editorial in the Washington Post said that some truths in life are inconvenient to say, and even more so in diplomatic activities with great stakes, so Biden's so-called "small-scale invasion" is this "inconvenient diplomatic truth."
In fact, Biden has made it very clear before that Ukraine is not a full member of NATO, so the military mutual defense obligation does not apply to the situation in Ukraine, which means that the United States will not intervene in the military. Biden's mention of "small-scale invasions" should actually pay more attention to his real context, saying that if there is a small-scale invasion, we must eventually argue about what to do and what not to do. The debate over who we are, of course, the United States and its European allies clearly indicates internal differences. But isn't it an established fact that some of nato's internal differences and even between the United States and Europe have always existed? Taking the so-called economic response plan as an example, the United States and Europe are certainly not in tune, and the interests are not consistent. The United States often wants to adopt the toughest economic sanctions against Russia, but who will pay the costs and costs of the toughest sanctions, and how to pay them, Europe and the United States also have their own calculations. 40% of the continent's natural gas, 25% of crude oil from Russia, can it be broken, especially in the international energy market prices at the moment, this account Europe will not be unclear. Therefore, the US media noted that although they are all showing toughness against Russia, Germany is still reluctant to make a clear statement on the existence of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project with an investment of up to $11 billion. Therefore, in my opinion, the "small-scale invasion" storm came at the right time, and it is the most powerful sobering agent for Ukraine, although the Ukrainian president tweets that he is speaking out on behalf of the big powers, but once he really wants to get involved in the forefront of the great power game, it is inevitable to become a sacrifice, and Ukraine must make a prudent choice to seek advantages and avoid harms.
The author 丨 Guan Yao is a special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcasting hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"