The 2022 Taipei Mayor's War is an important battle in the "nine-in-one" election at the end of the year. According to the latest poll released by Taiwan media "TVBS" on the 20th, 40% of kmt jiang wan'an, 29% of Chen Shizhong, head of the health department of the DPP authorities, and 19% of Taipei Vice Mayor Huang Shanshan. Hao Longbin, former vice chairman of the Kuomintang, shouted out "blue and white cooperation" and used polls to decide who won and who came out to vote. Although Ko Wen-che, chairman of the Taiwan People's Party and mayor of Taipei, gave a "soft nail" at the first time, expressing "to defeat the blue-green alone", media observation believes that it is impossible to say it before the official nomination.
Jiang Wan'an was recently interviewed by the media about whether to run for mayor of Taipei and his assessment of the election situation in Taipei City, which is quite low-key and unwilling to talk about it head-on. However, Taiwan media reported that he hosted a banquet at noon on the 18th, and will officially announce his candidacy for mayor of Taipei after the Spring Festival, which has been going deep into the grassroots and actively laying out during this time. Jiang Wan'an can sit on a high support of 40%, which is not surprising to the outside world, after all, the basic disk of Taipei City is "blue is greater than green". Ding Shouzhong, who represented the Kuomintang in the 2018 Taipei mayoral election, received 40.8% of the vote, almost defeating Ko Wenzhe. The 2020 "legislature" election does not divide the political party votes, the KMT won 560,522 votes in Taipei City (34.37% of the vote), the DPP 494,909 votes (30.35% of the vote), and the Taiwan People's Party of 210,977 votes (12.94% of the vote), which shows that if Jiang Wan'an wants to win the election, there is a certain basis for existence. However, the key is that if Huang Shanshan, the vice mayor of Taipei City supported by the Taiwan People's Party, runs to the end, it will make the Taipei mayoral election appear "three-legged" trend.
The Hong Kong "China Commentary Agency" article pointed out that the increase in Huang Shanshan's support may be related to the two outbreaks of local epidemics in Taiwan, and Ke Wenzhe and Huang Shanshan went in and out of the epidemic. Jiang Wan'an did almost disappear in front of the media camera when the epidemic broke out in May last year, which in turn gave Huang Shanshan's polls room for growth and the strength to stir up trouble. Moreover, Huang Shanshan is a party member who is close to the people and has a new party background, and her brother is Huang Shuguang, a "general" of the Taiwan military navy who retired from the taiwan army and a former "chief of staff" who only retired in June last year. If Jiang Wan'an and Huang Shanshan toss each other, they are likely to repeat the results of the pan-blue split in the 1994 Taipei mayoral election.
Lin Guocheng, a member of the Taipei City Council of the Taiwan People's Party and chairman of the Taipei City Party Department, pointed out in an interview that Huang Shanshan only had 9 percent of the polls at the beginning, and so far it can be said that she has risen step by step. To say that Huang Shanshan's "crane tail" is still too early to make a conclusion, as long as Huang Shanshan can break through 20% and have the space for "three legs", in the end, it is the question of who abandons who. The party has not yet discussed whether to support Huang Shanshan's election to the end, but the atmosphere tends to support Huang's candidacy without party membership.
Wu Kunyu, a former deputy director of the Cultural and Propaganda Department of the People First Party and a media commentator who once experienced the era of "national affinity," analyzed that Hao Longbin and Zhao Shaokang's proposal for "blue and white cooperation" should be worried that the KMT's Jiang Wan'an election campaign will "go out of the package" at the beginning of the election campaign. Jiang Wan'an is now too well protected, and as soon as the fierce election campaign begins, it is easy to make a mistake in his speech. The Kuomintang wanted to block any exits and "spare tires" and "cover the cloth bag" with Huang Shanshan, so that no matter how Jiang went out of the bag, the Blue Army supporters had to support them with tears, hatred, and blood. But Ko Wenzhe will not give Huang Shanshan to the KMT as a "souvenir" as a "souvenir" as said by DPP city councilor Wang Shijian.
However, the "China Commentary Agency" article pointed out that in the face of the proposal of "blue and white cooperation", although Ke Wenzhe's first reaction was to "defeat blue and green alone", the second wave of local people's election lists released by the People's Party on the evening of the 19th was obviously very different from the way each constituency nominated by the first wave of the list, and there were clues hidden in the details. The People's Party nominated Huang Haoying and Chen Siyu for 2 seats in the first constituency of Taipei City (Shilin and Beitou District), and 2 seats for Zhang Zhihao and Zhang Xingsong in the 6th constituency (Daan and Wenshan Districts), while the rest of the constituencies maintained 1 seat, these two districts are basically blue larger than green, especially Daan and Wenshan District are Ma Ying-jeou's residences, and the current Pan-Blue City Councillor has more than 8 seats, even Speaker Chen Jinxiang is in this district. The article believes that Ke Wenzhe is not using this to hint at the space of "blue and white combination"?
The "China Commentary Agency" also pointed out that the Kuomintang's long-term metabolism is not good, the Mesozoic Generation has many difficulties in trying to get ahead, and it has lost the support of young people. New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi and Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan, aged 64 and 60 respectively, and Jiang Wan'an, 43, who is now 43, is one of the few young flames of the KMT if he can successfully be elected mayor of Taipei. Whether or not Jiang Wan'an can keep the mayor's throne affects the future of the Kuomintang and loses the opportunity to win, whether it is for Jiang Wan'an personally or for the Kuomintang to change blood, it is a big impact. In the face of the pan-blue split crisis of taipei's mayoral election, whether Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun endures humiliation and shoulders the burden of struggle for coordination space with Ko Wenzhe will be an important point of view in the next step. (Lin Jingxian/Editor)
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