Point one
Li Ziqi and Wei Nian parted ways, how to evaluate the respective values of Li Ziqi and Wei Nian?
Most people tend to prefer that the value of plum ziqi is much greater than that of micro-thoughts, because without the influence of plums, micro-thoughts will not be worth so much money. It is undeniable that among the many IPs incubated by Wei nian, Li Ziqi has the greatest commercial value. Is it that small thoughts have no value? So how to measure the value of micro-thoughts?
To take an incompletely appropriate analogy, the value of Li Ziqi and Wei Nian is the relationship between 1 and 0. Without Li Ziqi, the value of micro-thoughts is 0, and without micro-thoughts, the value of plums will also be seriously reduced. In the past five years, Weinian has invested hundreds of millions of yuan in Li Ziqi IP and built a professional service team of 500 people, responsible for brand operations such as marketing public relations, product development, supply chain construction, and channel layout. All these investments are the key to Li Ziqi's IP brand selling 1.6 billion goods a year. From a realistic point of view, parting ways, Li Ziqi and Wei Nian can live alone, but the commercial value of both sides is destined to be seriously reduced, doomed to a lose-lose situation.
The "Li Ziqi Incident" exposed the fatal bug of the Da Ren MCN model, the biggest cost and risk were borne by the company, and the biggest benefit was the gain of Da Ren. Therefore, there will be no company that will be incubated by the talents, and there will be no institutions that invest in similar companies. Grassroots counterattack is more difficult, so there will be no second plum Ziqi.
Point two
How to view the first monthly negative growth of e-commerce?
Over the past few years, the e-commerce industry has begun to slow down. It is understood that the Taobao industry has shrunk by 50% in 2021.
In the field of clothing, the number of merchants with monthly sales of Douyin exceeding 2 million has reached 54, far exceeding the 16 on Taobao.
By November 2021, China's e-commerce industry ushered in negative month-on-year growth for the first time in 20 years, down 4.12% year-on-year. Also in November, the transaction volume of the whole network on the day of Singles' Day was 314.6 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, the first time in the past decade. This means that China's e-commerce industry has come to an inflection point of development.
First, it has encountered a user ceiling, with about 812 million online shopping users at present, and the growth rate will decline to about 3% in 2021. Objectively speaking, incremental users are preferred, and the purchasing power of users in the sinking market is relatively poor, and market competition has moved from incremental to stock.
Second, the online penetration rate of most categories such as clothing, cosmetics and home appliances 3c has approached or exceeded 50%, and only a few categories such as FMCG and fresh food still have room.
China's e-commerce has completely entered an era of competition in the stock market, whether it is a platform or a business, it is no longer possible to expect rapid growth. The more typical feature of the stock market is that the rise of Douyin Kuaishou will inevitably lead to the decline of Ali e-commerce.
Point three
Will Chinese consumption pick up in 2022?
Most people are pessimistic about consumption, but I expect that before 618 in 2022, Chinese consumption will usher in a recovery rebound!
The decline in consumption after the autumn of 2021 is due to the double blow of austerity policies and the epidemic. Austerity policies have been released in 2021, and the current policy intends to expand fiscal spending and stimulate consumption. Although Omilon is more contagious, the toxicity has been greatly reduced, the vaccine is widely available and the specific drugs are put into use, and the epidemic crisis is expected to be gradually withdrawn in the summer of 2022.
The third reason for the recovery of consumption is that the significant increase in the savings of the Chinese people has provided the possibility for the recovery of consumption. In the past two years, because the epidemic has suppressed consumption, the Chinese people have saved 5 trillion yuan more per year than in previous years. Residents' total savings deposits have expanded from 80 trillion yuan before the epidemic to 103 trillion yuan. Whether consumption can rise or not depends essentially on whether there is money in the pockets of the people.
It's like, a big dam is blocked upstream of a river, the runoff of the river is reduced, and the water does not disappear. The water that is blocked down is released when it really dries up, alleviating the drought. This is called "delayed gratification."
Point four
Why are investors more optimistic about JD.com?
JD.com was accused of missing social e-commerce and did not catch up with live e-commerce, and durable consumer goods such as Jingdong's core category 3C home appliances also declined, but in the past two years, JD.com has maintained nearly 30% revenue growth. Ali was sold off, Pinduoduo's stock price was also bent, why has JD.com become the most optimistic Chinese e-commerce company?
Where did JD.com's growth come from? One is from supply chain efficiency, which is JD.com's cost advantage; one is the user experience from self-built logistics. For JD.com, supply chain efficiency is the means, and traffic and users are the results. So Jingdong did not really "miss live broadcasting", live broadcasting is just the way businesses reach consumers have changed, and whether it is Douyin or Kuaishou, they have no self-operated business to cooperate with Jingdong, with the advantages of the supply chain, Jingdong directly stands in the upstream of live e-commerce.
Every item Jingdong sells insists on invoicing. Nowadays, the policy has strengthened the requirements of taxation, compliance and other aspects, and JD.com is the biggest beneficiary of this round of supervision.
Point five
Who has the best chance of beating fashion giant Zara?
China is the world's largest exporter of clothing, but it has not had a global clothing brand for a long time. Shein, which has increased by more than 100% for four consecutive years, will surpass Zara to become the world's first clothing brand in 2023.
The rise of Shein is a dimensionality reduction blow to the global market by China's apparel supply chain. Shein's rise is not based on advertising and marketing, but on a supply chain that is twice as efficient as Zara. Shein has stopped launching in the fourth quarter of this year and has grown entirely by repurchase, with the average company having 20% repurchase. Shein's 90-day repurchase rate was 23 percent in 2018, 30 percent in 2019, 42 percent in 2020, and 60 percent in 2021.
Shein's success has given a revelation to China's garment industry, the global apparel market is too big, SHEIN has achieved tens of billions of dollars in sales, accounting for less than 1%. The domestic market has been too strong, with the supply chain + market experience of China's garment industry to go out to reduce the dimensionality of the blow, to complete the upgrade from Chinese manufacturing to Chinese brands!
Viewpoint Six
Why is China's garment industry stalling?
In 2017, there are many Chinese garment companies that do overseas markets like shein, they do not have their own supply chain, the business model is to first do the new delivery, take a lot of exquisite pictures to attract users to pay for orders, and then go to the stalls in Guangzhou to get spot and ship. 4 years later, these companies that do delivery, sell pictures, and take spot, GMV has stopped growing at 3 billion.
Point Seven
How to see the opportunity of live e-commerce?
Dolphin Society expects that by 2025, the share of live e-commerce in e-commerce will reach 25%, which means that it will reach 3.75 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 39%, becoming one of the few growth markets for e-commerce.
The increase in the penetration rate of e-commerce live streaming means that emerging channels are replacing traditional e-commerce channels. Taobao Live relies too much on Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya's head master, and lost the game early. Douyin and Kuaishou will compete for the final live e-commerce brother.
Douyin live broadcast is partial to the public domain, Kuaishou live broadcast is partial to private domain, the difference in product rules, the difference in content tone, and eventually lead to different characteristics of Douyin and Kuaishou, just like Ali e-commerce, Tmall and Taobao are coexisting, and the volume of Taobao is even much larger than Tmall. Therefore, we are happy to see two live e-commerce companies, continue to compete, and give merchants and users more choices.
Point Eight
Why will CHALI Tea surpass Lipton in 2022?
China is the largest consumer of tea, but no brand has surpassed Lipton, and CHALI in tea may end lipton's invincible myth in 2022.
Most of China's tea brands are financial speculation and gift-giving attributes, and this is not a train of thought at lipton doing fast-selling products, and it is not on a competitive track. When tea is used as a gift, although the added value is very high, the audience scope will be greatly reduced, and it is inevitable that Lipton will not be beaten.
There are good teas in China, but they were too expensive to sell before, and there was a lack of standardization. If you want to make a breakthrough in the tea track, FMCG is the best choice. That's why it's Chali in Tea that beat Lipton, not small pots of tea.
Chali's sales in 2021 have exceeded 600 million, with a growth rate of 80%-90%, and Lipton's annual market size in China is only about 800 million yuan. In 2022, Chali chali can surpass Lipton at least in China, ending the myth of Lipton's invincibility.
Point Nine
Under the tide of domestic substitution, what does yuanqi forest rely on to surpass Coca-Cola before 2025?
Not by marketing, but by the ultimate better product. It is not that patriotism wins cocoa happiness, but in the context of healthy life, Yuanqi Forest is more liked by Chinese consumers.
Coca-Cola's 2020 financial report shows that the revenue in the Asia-Pacific region is less than 30 billion, while according to dolphins, Coca-Cola's revenue in China in 2021 is about 25 billion. Although Yuanqi Forest's revenue in 2021 is about 10 billion, the annual growth rate is far more than 100%, so it is not far from surpassing Coca-Cola China.
Coca-Cola has been in China for more than 40 years, while Yuanqi Forest was only 6 years old. It can be said that the market change from Coca-Cola to Yuanqi Forest is the competition of product advantages and disadvantages, the gradual transfer of consumers' minds, and the landmark event of foreign brands to domestic brands.