Li Chengdong, e-commerce strategy analyst: The industry has entered the era of stock competition, and for the first time there has been negative growth

On January 20, Li Chengdong, an e-commerce strategy analyst, held an annual e-commerce speech, responding to a number of industry issues that the industry is most concerned about.

At present, the macro-economy is facing various pressures, many people can not see the future trend of the consumer industry, Li Chengdong expects that by 2022 618, China's consumption will pick up. There are three reasons, one is that the current policy intends to expand fiscal expenditure and stimulate consumption; the second is that The Omicron is more contagious, but the toxicity has weakened significantly, the vaccine popularization and special drugs have been put into use, and the epidemic crisis is expected to be gradually withdrawn in the summer of 2022; the third is that the epidemic has inhibited consumption in the past two years, and the savings deposits of Chinese residents have risen from 80 trillion yuan before the epidemic to more than 100 trillion yuan, providing the possibility for consumption recovery.

Li Chengdong believes that China's e-commerce has fully entered an era of stock market competition, a typical example is that in November 2021, China's e-commerce industry for the first time in 20 years of negative month-on-year growth, "which means that China's e-commerce industry has come to a development inflection point."

There are two reasons, one is to encounter the user ceiling, the current online shopping users 812 million, the growth rate in 2021 fell to about 3%; the second is that the online penetration rate of most categories such as clothing, cosmetics, home appliances, 3C and so on has approached or exceeded 50%, only a few categories such as FMCG, fresh food and other categories still have room.

In terms of live e-commerce, Li Chengdong expects that by 2025, the share of live e-commerce in e-commerce will reach 25%, which means that the market will reach 3.75 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 39%, becoming one of the few growth markets in the e-commerce field. "Even if Wei Ya is not blocked, Taobao Live will be out, because the ecology is not healthy." He believes that due to the differences between Douyin e-commerce and Kuaishou e-commerce in the public domain and private domain, product rules, and content tone, they will coexist in the future.

In the face of the cold winter of e-commerce, Li Chengdong believes that there are still five major opportunities, namely the tide of domestic product substitution, going offline, going to WeChat private domain, going to overseas markets, and live broadcast opportunities. (Text | "Finance and Economics" Weekly Liu Xueer Edited by | Chen Fang)