Since November last year, the previous squeeze in Beijing's second-hand housing market has exploded, and this trend has continued until January 2022, resulting in a shortage of housing in some areas. Although the transaction data showed a month-on-month decline, industry insiders reflected that the first-tier market has gradually warmed up.
According to the statistics of Beijing Zhongyuan Research Institute, in the first half of January 2022 (January 1-15), a total of 5438 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing, down 16% from the same period in December 2021, with a transaction area of 488,500 square meters. Industry insiders pointed out that from the feedback of the first-line market, with the fine-tuning of credit policies in the fourth quarter of last year, the approval efficiency and lending speed of second-hand housing loans have increased significantly, and the psychological expectations of home buyers have gradually stabilized, driving the market's wait-and-see mood to gradually weaken, and it is expected that the second-hand housing market in Beijing will maintain a slight upward trend around the Spring Festival.
In the first half of January, although the second-hand housing transaction data showed a month-on-month decline, industry insiders reflected that the first-tier market has gradually warmed up. Image credit/IC photo
In some areas, there is a shortage of housing, and buyers do not have much choice
"The optimistic community either does not leave the house, or the competitors are too strong and directly buy it at full payment, so I have waited until now." Home buyer XiaoYi (pseudonym) said so.
Xiao Yi after the 90s is a "just need family", and its goal is one or two small houses in Chaoyang District. According to Xiaoyi observation, there are two situations in the current housing released by the real estate agent, one is that the house has been hanging for a long time, and there is a certain "hard injury" in the house itself; the other is that the owner is eager to sell and is ready to change the house, so the price will be appropriately reduced, and this kind of house can be sold soon once the price is reduced.
From December 2021, Xiaoyi obviously felt that the market began to pick up, "maybe at the end of the year, everyone has enough money on hand, they are in a hurry to buy a house, or it may be the atmosphere set off by the intermediary." But for her, the real release of listings in the market has not increased much, "I heard the agent said that now many owners have taken the initiative to remove the listings and no longer sell, they think that there is a 'Xiaoyang Spring' after the Spring Festival, and they wait for the price to rise after the year before selling." ”
The shortage of housing is not unique. The manager of an intermediary store in Yihai Garden, Fengtai District, told reporters that in the first half of January, the transaction volume and the amount of views of Yihai Garden rose sharply, and buyers are now shooting at a particularly fast pace, houses are frequently traded, and even some high-priced houses have also been traded. ”
At the same time, the manager of a real estate brokerage company Qinghe West District store pointed out that in the first half of January, Qingjingyuan sold 2 houses, the price trend is still stable, compared with the previous transaction, the overall is not much different, "Qingjingyuan currently belongs to the situation of fewer houses for sale, most of the owners are not in a hurry to sell, there are also high prices." ”
Chen Guixun, the regional manager of the Wukesong area in the Central Plains of Beijing, told the Beijing News that compared with before, there was no obvious change in the transaction volume of Zijin Chang'an and other communities in the Wukesong area, but the transaction volume in the Wanliu and Century City areas rose a lot, and the inventory listings were sold almost the same, but there was not much change in price.
"The market has picked up, mainly because there are too few listings and buyers are not selective, which is a matter of supply and demand." A store agent near Fengrong 2008 said so. It is reported that due to the large number of small area listings in the community, the turnover rate has been high, and it is almost the enrollment season after the Spring Festival, so many people currently choose to sell.
Factors such as the fine-tuning of credit policies have driven a slight increase in market heat
According to the statistics of Beijing Zhongyuan Research Institute, in the first half of January 2022 (January 1 to January 15), a total of 5438 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing, down 16% from the same period in December 2021, with a transaction area of 488,500 square meters. At present, from the feedback of the first-tier market, the heat of the second-hand housing market in Beijing is still slightly rising, but the increase is small. According to the data of Anjuke Online, as of January 18, the listing volume of second-hand houses in Beijing in January this year increased slightly by 0.3% compared with the same period in December 2021, but it was still at a relatively low level, the listing price fell slightly by 0.02%, and the number of user visits also increased slightly.
In this regard, Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Housing Research Institute, pointed out that the recent slight recovery of the heat of the first-line market in Beijing and the market sentiment and credit policy are directly related, "With the fine-tuning of the credit policy in the fourth quarter of last year, the approval efficiency and lending speed of second-hand housing loans have increased significantly, which is the main driving force for the recovery of the heat of the second-hand housing market. ”
"We observed that the second-hand housing credit lending cycle in Beijing was shortened by more than 10 days in January, which led to an accelerated release of demand in the second half of last year due to the tightening of credit lines." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, analyzed, "These needs are mainly concentrated in a few core areas, mainly improved housing exchange and education demand, and market expectations have also improved with the improvement of loan conditions." However, it is still back to normal levels. ”
At the same time, Xu Xiaole said that according to the experience of previous years, there will be a wave of heating up in the market at the beginning of the year, and this year's market may be affected by the reduction of supply. The supply of new houses in Beijing has decreased, and the enthusiasm of second-hand house owners in some urban areas has been constrained, resulting in a faster recovery of demand than supply, so there is some room for house prices in individual areas to rise. From the perspective of the whole city, the Beijing market still maintains a good situation of stability and upward mobility.
Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo Real Estate Agency, also pointed out that the second-hand housing market in Beijing has shown a gradual warming trend, the core reason is the relaxation of credit policies, including the reduction of the RRR at the financial level, etc., which has a relatively positive effect on everyone's expectations, coupled with the decline in the transaction of second-hand houses in the second half of last year, whether it is the listing price or the bargaining between the owners, there is a certain room for adjustment, resulting in the price of second-hand houses in a relatively reasonable value range, and everyone is expected to be bullish. As a result, the first-line market transaction has heated up.
In the industry: the second-hand housing market before and after the Spring Festival may maintain a warming trend
Looking forward to the next market trend, in the view of a store broker in the Olympic region, due to the relaxation of financial policies, the reduction of the reserve requirement and interest rates, coupled with the increase in the speed of lending, it is expected that the transaction volume will increase after the beginning of spring.
"Now the volume of transactions has come up, and as there are fewer and fewer listings, the price may have risen." Therefore, it is expected that house prices may rise slightly after the Spring Festival. Chen Guixun said.
Guo Yi believes that after the Spring Festival as a whole, the market demand will remain warming, and it is expected that by the first half of this year, the overall second-hand housing market is in a relatively warming cycle, and it shows a slight fluctuation state. Zhang Bo also analyzed that it is expected that the second-hand housing market in Beijing will maintain a slight upward trend around the Spring Festival.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that as far as the second-hand housing market in Beijing is concerned, with the relaxation of credit policies, it actually has a better market response, that is, it will not continue to decline overall, but there will be a slight increase in the possibility. However, this also depends on the adequacy of first-hand housing listings, if the first-hand housing listings are in short supply, the next Beijing second-hand housing market rebound or recovery will be more likely.
Beijing News reporter Zhang Xiaolan
Edited by Yang Juanjuan Proofreader Wang Xin
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