Zhao Wei: Monetary policy is in the forefront, how is the investment laid out?

Zhongxin Jingwei, January 20 Title: Monetary policy is in the forefront, how is the investment laid out?

　　The author is Zhao Wei Chief Economist of Guojin Securities and Director of China Chief Economist Forum

　　On January 18, the central bank clearly stressed at the press conference of the new office of the State Council that before the downward pressure on the economy is fundamentally alleviated, it is necessary to serve stability, policies that are not conducive to stability are not introduced, and policies conducive to stability are introduced more, so as to promote stability with progress. From a macro point of view, China's monetary policy is loose and the attitude of increasing the weight is clear, and the development of stable growth requires policy "combination fist"; after the "policy bottom" is consolidated, the "economic bottom" may soon appear. The risk-free interest rate will be further moved down, and the risk appetite and valuation improvement of A-shares will be further determined. The exchange rate is not the main constraint of the current policy, and despite the increase in the "wide currency" policy, the short-term correlation between the fluctuations of the rmb exchange rate against the US dollar and the Sino-US interest rate differential has declined, and the spillover effect of the Fed's tightening of the currency on China has also decreased accordingly.

　　From the perspective of fixed income, we believe that the central bank's reduction of the reserve requirement and interest rate is to stabilize credit and stimulate both the supply and demand sides of credit. This may be the opening of the last wave of interest rate markets in the first half of the year, and 2.6% of the 10-year Treasury bond can be expected. When the economy begins to pick up marginally in the second quarter, the bond market may inevitably usher in an adjustment.

　　From a strategic point of view, wide currency and wide credit or acceleration have been verified, and the stock market Spring Festival market is worth looking forward to. There are three main investment lines that can be paid attention to:

　　First, the new and old infrastructure construction has grown steadily. The bottom of the real estate policy is further explored, and the accelerated approval and construction of major new and old infrastructure projects benefits from steel and base metals; in the context of counter-cyclical + carbon neutrality, focus on power grid investment and large-scale wind and photovoltaic power construction; the prosperity continues to rise, the global penetration rate increases and accelerates the stage, and the leading companies in the industrial chain will continue to maintain explosive growth; around the two main lines of increasing power investment and natural gas pipeline investment.

　　Second, the real estate chain repair. The short-term and stable choice is a head state-owned enterprise with financing advantages and good reputation; at the same time, some high-quality private enterprises have ushered in a dilemma reversal after the introduction of the policy combination. In the long run, in 2022, housing enterprises are expected to usher in Davis double-click in the future. The real estate market is expected to improve steadily, on the one hand, it is significantly positive for the home appliance sector at the bottom of the valuation, and on the other hand, it will benefit all kinds of household-related consumer goods in the long run.

　　Third, the rise of science and technology growth stocks. Focus on semiconductor, electronics, computers, communications core technology independent research and development. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have become a new engine for economic growth, reiterating the view that the value chain of the communications industry will shift to a new generation of ICT industries. Smart hardware is optimistic about folding mobile phones and AR/VR innovation opportunities. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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Editor-in-charge: Song Yafen