Tensions in Ukraine are rising, and neither the US-led NATO nor Russia seem to be showing signs of concessions.
On January 19, local time, US President Joe Biden predicted at a press conference on the anniversary of his inauguration that Russia would take action against Ukraine, warning that if Putin invaded Ukraine, he would pay a heavy price.
Biden also urged the West to remain united and hold Moscow accountable for any acts of aggression. But he also acknowledged that there are still "differences" among Western allies on how to punish Moscow.
Biden: If Putin invades Ukraine, he will pay a "heavy price"
According to the Associated Press, on January 19, local time, US President Joe Biden held a press conference on the first anniversary of his administration at the White House. Biden said at a news conference that he believes Russia is preparing to take action against Ukraine, but he also believes Putin has not yet made a final decision. Biden also hinted that if Russia does invade Ukraine further, he will limit Russian activity in the international banking system.
On January 19, local time, Biden held a press conference at the White House Pictured from the Associated Press
Biden said, "I'm not sure if Putin is sure what he's going to do." "My guess is that he's going to get in [Ukraine] and he's going to have to do something, and he's trying to find his place in the world between China and the West," he added.
Biden also said he believes the decision will be made "entirely" by Putin, suggesting he doesn't fully believe that Russian officials who have been negotiating with senior White House officials fully understand Putin's thinking. "There's a question about whether the person they [means U.S. officials] are talking to know what he [Putin] is going to do," Biden said. ”
According to CNN, Biden believes that after two conversations with Putin last month, he believes Putin has a good understanding of the economic sanctions he is going to impose.
Biden said: "He has never seen the kind of sanctions I am talking about before, and if he enters [Ukraine], it will be imposed." He added that the extent of the punishment would depend on the russian invasion.
Biden reportedly said the sanctions included restricting Russian transactions at U.S. financial institutions, "any transaction involving dollars."
Biden also warned that Russians would lose their lives in the aggression and that Ukrainians could also suffer casualties as a result. "The price of entering Ukraine is the loss of life of the Russians, and over time they will be able to prevail, but it will be heavy", "It is true, and it will follow." Putin faces a stark choice, either demotion or diplomacy, or confrontation and consequences. ”
Biden said that "it is not easy for Russia" and that "militarily, they have an overwhelming advantage over Ukraine." But if they do this (referring to an invasion of Ukraine), they will pay a heavy price immediately and in the short, medium and long term. ”
Biden also speculated that Putin was not seeking "any all-out war," but said he did believe Putin was seeking some type of confrontation: "Do I think he will test the West?" Testing the United States and NATO as much as possible? Yes, I think he will, but I think he will pay a terrible price for it. ”
"Small-scale intrusions cause smaller reactions"
In his speech, Biden said a "minor incursion" would cause a smaller response than a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, adding that "it is very important to have all NATO members aligned." ”
While Biden has vowed that Russia will suffer serious economic consequences if Putin sends troops across the border, including restrictions on its financial transactions in dollars, he also said that western countries have no synchronized response if there is a smaller invasion.
Biden reportedly told reporters: "If this is a small-scale invasion, we will eventually have to fight over what to do and what not to do, that's one thing", "but in the case of amassion of troops on the border, if they really do what they have the ability to do, if they invade Ukraine further, it will be a disaster for Russia."
When subsequently asked to explain what he called a "small-scale invasion," Biden said the line he drew was "Russian troops crossing the border and killing Ukrainian fighters." "I think it will change everything," Biden said, "but it depends on what he does and to what extent we achieve full unity on the NATO front." ”
He went on to say: "It is very important to have all NATO members aligned, it is something I have spent a lot of time doing, and now there are differences ... There is disagreement within NATO about what countries are willing to do, depending on what happens. ”
On January 19, local time, in this video provided by the Information Service of the Russian Ministry of Defense, a Russian armored vehicle drove away from a railway platform after arriving in Belarus Pictured by the Associated Press
CNN said Biden's remarks came as a surprise to Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian officials said he was "appalled that U.S. President Joe Biden would distinguish between incursion and invasion" and suggested that small-scale invasions would not trigger sanctions.
"This gives Putin the green light to enter Ukraine at will", he added. The official also said he had never heard such a distinction from the U.S. government before, and that "Kiev [referring to the Ukrainian government] was stunned."
According to CNN, the White House tried to explain Biden's remarks, saying that if Russia launched an attack in cyberspace or through paramilitary forces compared to the situation in which Russian troops entered Ukraine from its positions, it would trigger a reciprocal reaction.
White House press secretary Psaki issued a statement after Biden's news conference, saying, "President Biden has made it clear to the Russian president that if any Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border, it will be a renewed invasion, and the United States and our allies will respond quickly, harshly, and in solidarity." ”
"President Biden also knows from long experience that in addition to military action, the Russians have a large number of aggressive tactics, including cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics, and he affirmed today that these acts of Aggression by Russia will face a decisive, reciprocal and united response," Psaki said. ”
A senior U.S. government official reportedly said that if Russian forces attempt to occupy Ukrainian territory by force and violate Ukrainian sovereignty, whether it is "a small part" or a "large part" of the land, by the Biden administration's standards, this will constitute "aggression" and will be severely punished.
CNN said that while the official acknowledged that the U.S. and NATO members may not have the same list of goals and details on each measure, the response will remain "highly uniform" and "give a multiplier effect to the strength of our actions."
Macron: EU countries should "start their own dialogue" with Russia
According to the Financial Times reported on January 20, Biden's remarks came as French President Emmanuel Macron called on the EU to develop its own plans to maintain "security and stability" in relations with Russia. In the face of the Kremlin's threat of aggression against Ukraine, the move could undermine Western unity.
On January 19, local time, Macron delivered a speech in the European Parliament Pictured from the US media Politico
According to reports, Macron called on EU countries to "carry out their own dialogue" with Russia in a speech at the European Parliament on the 19th, rather than supporting diplomatic efforts led by the United States and NATO.
Macron said that despite joint diplomacy between the EU and the United States, Europeans must present a solution to Russia "in the coming weeks" to ease tensions with Moscow. He told MEPs: "We should work with other Europeans as well as NATO as Europeans and then propose negotiations with Russia." It is good that Europe and the United States are coordinating, but there is a need for Europeans to have their own dialogue. ”
Macron's intervention is the first example of public dissent among NATO members since the United States first warned of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine more than two months ago, breaking the united front between the European Union and the United States on Russia, the Financial Times said.
According to reports, when Blinken visited Ukraine on the 19th, he stressed the need to reach an agreement before the 21st. According to the plan, he will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Geneva on the 21st.
"Our diplomatic power, our deterrent and any response to Moscow's aggression require unity among allies and partners and within Ukraine," Blinken said. ”
The Financial Times argues that the EU is trying to agree on the extent to which Russia's aggression against Ukraine should trigger sanctions, but the level of enthusiasm among member states varies.
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