Tsai Ing-wen dug a pit waiting for him to jump? Taiwan expert: Lai Ching-te's "foreign visit" to Honduras is at risk

Source: Taiwan Straits Network

On January 25, Taiwan regional vice leader Lai Ching-te will lead a delegation to Honduras to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new president, Xiomara Castro, and US Vice President He Jinli (Harris) will also attend. Li Mingyi, a professor at the Institute of Educational Administration of Pingtung University, said in an interview with hong Kong's China Commentary Agency that The leaders of China and the United States have just held a video summit and have the idea of setting up a security guardrail for each other, and whether He Jinli will interact with Lai Qingde depends on which situation the United States wants to push Taiwan into?

Li Mingyi further analyzed that Lai Qingde's "visit" to Honduras this time has both political interests and risks, but Lai Qingde himself can still control only a limited amount, and how the United States plays the Taiwan card and whether it can maintain the "diplomatic relations" between Taiwan and Hong Kong are all worth observing.

Li Mingyi pointed out that Taiwan is geopolitically sandwiched between the two powers of China and the United States, and Taiwan has always played the role of a "hedger" during the Ma Ying-jeou period, but after the DPP authorities "came to power" in 2016, although Taiwan has become a "quasi-partnership" between the United States, the substantive Taiwan-US relationship is not equal, but more like a "relationship under the United States", so the entry of Taiwan regional administrative officials into the United States, or how the United States arranges Lai Qingde, will become an observation indicator between China and the United States.

Li Mingyi said that Lai Qingde's "visit" to Honduras will transit through the United States, and the us side's arrangement specifications will become observation indicators. In February 2020, Lai Qingde visited the United States as a "deputy leader elect" and went to New York and Washington to attend the annual "National Prayer Breakfast Meeting". Today, the "transit" arrangements of the US side are highly indicative.

With regard to Taiwan-Hong Kong relations, Li Mingyi said: At present, there are only a few "countries with diplomatic relations" in Taiwan, and the three-way struggle between the United States, the mainland, and Taiwan in Honduras has emerged. The new president Castro is relatively pro-China, and whether Lai Qingde's visit to the backstage Hong's relationship has changed, although this is a hypothetical question, it is really difficult to say now.

Li Mingyi believes that US Vice President He Jinli will represent Biden at Castro's inauguration, and if Lai Qingde can take the opportunity to share the frame with He Jinli, take photos or have a simple ceremonial interaction, this will continue to have an impact on Lai Qingde's political visibility in Taiwan. In addition, under the current situation of Sino-US confrontation, it is all the more necessary to observe where the United States wants to push Taiwan.

In addition, the Hong Kong China Commentary Agency also published an analysis article today, saying that Lai Qingde will leave for Honduras from January 25 to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new President Castro. The task entrusted by Tsai Ing-wen is Lai's first "foreign visit" as a deputy, raising the pattern of his future campaign for the "big position". However, looking closely at this task, there are also many "pits" waiting for Lai to jump, and Cai specifically explained that he should deepen the "friendship of the state." If he returns to Taiwan after the "foreign visit" and there is a crisis in the "diplomatic relations" between the two sides, the representative Lai has not done a good job in the task assigned by Cai.

Lai Qingde's trip should be "transiting" in the United States as usual, but this trip is only 6 days and 5 nights, long-distance flight plus participation in the Honduran inauguration ceremony, the actual "transit" of the United States is limited, coupled with Tsai Ban to raise the epidemic prevention standards, Lai Qingde hopes to take advantage of this trip to strengthen exchanges with the United States, there are many uncertainties.

Lai Qingde first "visited" as a deputy, Tsai Ing-wen delivered 3 tasks, the most important is to deepen the "friendship", but Castro mentioned during the election campaign that after being elected, he will choose to establish diplomatic relations with China, although there is still a us side to stabilize, but it is difficult to guarantee that the country will always be subject to the United States, if the final "severance of diplomatic relations", this responsibility entrusted to Lai, obviously not done well.

Although the US side requires that overseas tourists must be given 2 doses of internationally recognized vaccines when entering the country, Lai Qingde's 3 doses of Taiwan-made vaccines are high-end, and it is not a problem to have "diplomatic courtesies" to enter the country. It is just that high-end vaccines have not been internationally recognized, and the United States and Honduras are all areas with more serious epidemics, and the probability of infection will be increased for Lai or the personnel accompanying the group.

In addition, Cai Ban has announced that after Lai Qingde returns to Taiwan, he will return to his Apartment in Tainan for 14 days of isolation, plus 7 days of self-management, and the isolation specifications are quite high. Lai Qingde's return to Taiwan is January 30, it is already a small Chinese New Year's Eve, followed by the Lunar New Year, and when Lai leaves the customs, the Lantern Festival has passed. Politicians usually use lunar new year festivals to visit temples and other activities, hoping to narrow the distance between the people, but Lai needs to be isolated after returning to Taiwan, which means that there is no public itinerary for the entire Spring Festival.

Although this task entrusted by Tsai Ing-wen is not easy, and it can even be said that there are landmines everywhere, Lai Qingde is not completely unprepared; yesterday, when meeting with the representatives of the Gold Medal for Construction, he specifically mentioned the cross-strait exposition of the inauguration ceremony of Tsai Ing-wen's first term and re-election, and Lai wanted to emphasize that the cross-strait line is to follow Tsai Ing-wen, and once the "foreign visit" occurs, the crisis of "severing diplomatic relations" occurs, which is caused by the continuation of Tsai Ing-wen's line.

With regard to the DPP authorities' repeated use of the opportunity of "foreign visits" to "transit" the United States, the spokesman of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has made it clear on many occasions that there is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. We resolutely oppose any attempt to create "two Chinas," "one China, one Taiwan," and "Taiwan independence" in the international arena, and any attempt or act of relying on foreigners to gain self-esteem and undermining cross-strait relations will only lead to self-inflicted consequences.