Financial Associated Press (reporter Han Li Shen Shuhong) news, on January 18, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said at a press conference that it is necessary to open the monetary policy toolbox a little wider and maintain the total amount of stability. Guan Qingyou said bluntly on Weibo: "Tomorrow (January 19) if there are no thousands of shares, I feel that the brain of the institution is in the water." ”
However, on January 19, there was a slight correction in A shares. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3558.18 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17% to 3161.51 points, a relatively significant decline. Why is the market behaving the way it is? Whose brain is in the water?'
In this regard, the Financial Associated Press interviewed a number of fund companies, in the view of the fund company, there was no big rise or due to internal and external hedging. On the one hand, the central bank said that the monetary policy toolbox was opened a little wider to avoid a credit collapse, coupled with monday's MLF and OMO interest rates fell by 10bp, the wide currency signal was unprecedentedly strong; on the other hand, last night's US Treasury interest rate rose rapidly, triggering a sharp decline in US stocks, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, suppressing risk appetite. The internal and external positive and bearish confrontation has led to the sharp rise that everyone expected today.
"The current chaotic pattern of reversal investment is only temporary." Some fund companies believe that in the context of downward profits and upward residual liquidity, it is expected that the general trend in 2022 will still be dominated by shocks. Another public offering said that there is no fundamental bearishness in stocks such as auto parts that fell largely today, and most of the growth stocks similar to them are expected to form a "golden pit" after a short-term decline.
Why is the market still falling?
After the central bank released the signal of water release, the market did not have the expected sharp rise, but performed flat.
Hu Xijin, who has no contact with the capital market, also posted on Weibo to express his views.
The Golden Eagle Fund observed that the current expectations around the Fed's monetary tightening will form a risk appetite suppression of high-valued technology growth, especially in the time window with low risk appetite before the Domestic Spring Festival. The market is worried that although the current domestic monetary policy can be relaxed, its space and sustainability will be constrained by the periphery in the long run, thus forming an internal and external hedge.
Although in the context of the internal and external positive and bearish confrontation, there is no big rise that everyone expects today, but the growth style represented by new energy leads the market, and the pharmaceutical sector is also affected by the collection strength exceeding expectations, and the whole line has fallen. However, the new and old infrastructure related to steady growth, financial real estate, TMT plate closed red, Wang Jing, chief strategist of Chuangjin Hexin Fund, analyzed, which shows that the main line of the market is still on the side of steady growth.
"The external macro shock is not over, the market risk appetite has declined, suppressing the performance of high-valuation sectors, the valuation of the boom track is difficult to return to the high level, and the main line of the spring restless market is on the side of stable growth in the metacosm, the damage of the epidemic, and the low valuation." Wang Jing said.
According to the analysis of TEDA Manulife Fund, there are three reasons for this. First, benefiting from the double reduction of MLF and reverse repo rates on Monday, yesterday's A shares have already performed, and the current market is still divergent about the 5-year LPR quotation on the 20th of this month, mainly focusing on the game of reducing 5BP and 10BP.
Second, although the central bank's statement yesterday afternoon is a heavy positive, the easing emphasized by the central bank may not be the same concept as the easing understood by the market. The central bank focuses on wide credit and preventing credit collapse, rather than simply releasing water. Therefore, the increase in the valuation of enterprises in the future does not come from the rise of the ship, but from the rise in profits brought by the real wide credit, which is highly related to the "silence of hot concept stocks and the strength of performance pre-increase" on the disk today.
Third, the recent downward adjustment of overseas technology stocks has triggered a large number of NASDAQ market stocks to "slash", superimposed on the eaglering expectations of fed interest rate hikes this year and the Spring Festival long holiday factors, which have depressed the short-term risk appetite of the A-share market, especially growth stocks.
The Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund also mentioned that yesterday's 0-year US Treasury yield rose 8.94 basis points to 1.88%, triggering a sharp decline in US stocks, the NASDAQ index, which represents technology growth stocks, fell 2.6% yesterday, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also fell more than 1.5%. Subsequently, the major Asian markets were affected by the decline.
TEDA Manulife Fund said that China is in the early stages of the interest rate cutting cycle, under the uncertainties such as the rise of the new crown epidemic, the central bank's monetary policy still has the possibility of further relaxation in timing and space, and it is expected to see a series of downward revisions in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in February.
However, there are also two bottom lines in the "interest rate cut" of the mainland central bank: one is to maintain a positive interest rate spread with the INTEREST rate of the United States; the other is to keep the real interest rate involving the people's financial management such as deposits positive. In any case, once the interest rate cut can achieve the effect of "wide credit", corporate profits will become an important factor in pulling up stock indexes. ”
"Generally speaking, the market at the end of the year has the characteristics of expected switching and data empty window. The expected switch is reflected in the market's profitability and valuation outlook to switch to the new year, while the data window reflects the expected de-anchoring brought about by the longer performance window between the disclosure of the third quarterly report and the first quarter of the following year, which makes the market from the end of the year to the spring festival often indicates poor significance. "Huaxia Fund Analysis.
After the fall or now "gold pit"?
"The current chaotic pattern of reversal investment is only temporary." Huaxia Fund believes that in the context of downward profits and upward residual liquidity, it is expected that the general trend in 2022 will still be dominated by shocks. Therefore, the primary configuration strategy is: the current is the configuration window for the direction of the annual growth boom in 2022, and the allocation should be increased to be optimistic about new energy, military industry, computers, etc.
At the same time, considering that the inflection point of the business structure-valuation order needs to be to Q2, Huaxia Fund said that it can still screen some potential reversal directions at present, based on the screening criteria of not falling sharply in the previous year and growing at a rate of more than 100% in that year, it is optimistic about aquaculture and feed in agriculture as a reversal asset allocation.
"Today's military and power equipment and the decline is larger, indicating that the adjustment of related sectors may still be continuing, but whether from the perspective of fundamentals or the long-term logic of the industry, the mainland's pursuit of "carbon neutrality" and the long-term goal of a century-old strong army have not changed. As a result, the Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund said that the recent continuous adjustment has made the current valuation of related industries more cost-effective and is still the direction of sustainable attention.
TEDA Manulife Fund said that there is no fundamental bearishness in individual stocks such as auto parts that fell heavily today, and most similar growth stocks are expected to form a "gold pit" after a short-term decline. In addition, the "steady growth" throughout the year will provide continuous benefits for value blue chips such as infrastructure.
Therefore, the company said that the future market can be balanced allocation, optimistic about the new and old infrastructure and banks and other large financial sectors, as well as military, scientific and technological intelligence, computers, digital economy and wind and solar energy storage and other boom sectors.
In Wang Jing's view, in the context of domestic policies biased towards stable growth and wide currency, the purpose of wide currency is to broaden credit, in the short term, the direction of stable economy is more beneficial to the policy, digital economy, infrastructure real estate is still the main theme of this period, and the valuation of these sectors has not risen in the past three years in the structural bull market, but is compressing. The pattern of market differentiation is converging last year, while the rebalancing of styles will remain for some time.
"At present, the main line of stable growth is still in the stage of valuation repair, and before the policy substance is landed and the effect of stable growth is verified or falsified, the market's policy around the main line of stable growth is expected to still provide repair support, and under the game of stock funds, it presents a siphon effect on the growth sector of science and technology." Golden Eagle Fund analysis, in the medium and long term, in 2022, new energy, military and other technology sectors or still have a high degree of prosperity, short-term adjustment more from the capital, emotional factors. When the market policy and liquidity are relaxed, the market attention may return to the boom, and the core assets that have been adjusted at that time may usher in layout opportunities.
Back in the market, the company believes that the spring restlessness can still be slowly calculated. In terms of industry allocation, the Golden Eagle Fund suggested that before the Spring Festival, before the "steady growth" policy has not been fully implemented, the risk appetite of A-share funds is still generally inclined to be defensive. In the short term, it is more inclined to the main line of "stable growth" of low valuation catalyzed by the expected policy, that is, the bank real estate chain, the new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption. New energy, military and other science and technology sectors in 2022 or still maintain a high boom. After this round of adjustment, in the subsequent intensive disclosure period of the annual quarterly report, the boom direction of high performance and suitable cost performance may still be possible, and the current adjustment may be expected to provide better low-suction opportunities during the year.
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