Financial circles January 19 news On Tuesday, the new office of the State Council held a press conference on financial statistics, releasing a positive signal of steady growth, and the "big vernacular" expression triggered the speculation of "releasing water". Yesterday evening, the famous economist Guan Qingyou posted on social media: "The central bank's statement is certainly a major positive for assets. Tomorrow there will be no thousand shares of up and down, I feel that the brain of the institution is in the water. ”
However, today's A-share market is not as Guan Qingyou expected, the three major indexes collectively opened low, and then the trend diverged, the Shanghai index maintained a narrow range of shocks, and the ChiNext index once fell by more than 2%. In terms of plates, the game sector has risen sharply, the large infrastructure sector has continued to be active, the concept stocks of new coronavirus special drugs have picked up, lithium battery stocks and CRO concept interest rate cuts are not the end of the easing cycle, the liquor sector has fallen, and the military and semiconductor chip stocks have weakened.
At present, the above content has been deleted, but another blog post reads: "The statement of the central bank leaders today is greater than the three Yang lines, changing the expectations of all people and all markets." If it doesn't change you, then study and reminisce. Practice has proved that the central mother is the central mother, the most resolute to implement the spirit of the central economic work conference, and has not forgotten to take care of you. "Still retained.
Because the difference between the forecast and the market trend is too large, Guan Qingyou responded that he was wrong. He said it would take time for expectations to weaken and confidence to be restored. In its view, the triple pressure proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference - demand contraction, supply shock, expectations weakened, expectations weakened is the core, the matter is man-made, the current macro policy should focus on solving the expected weakening, restore confidence.
The central bank proposes "three forces"
On the news side, on January 18, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the Chinese Bank, said at the press conference of the state council's new office that it is necessary to make sufficient efforts to open the monetary policy toolbox wider, maintain the stability of the total amount, and avoid credit collapse;
Precise force, to make the vast and subtle, the financial sector not only to welcome customers to the door, but also to take the initiative to attack, in accordance with the requirements of the new development concept, take the initiative to find good projects, do effective additions, optimize the economic structure;
Relying on the front force, although it is the beginning of the year, but the time of year is very short, the plan of the year lies in the spring, so we must pay close attention to doing things, forward-looking operations, walking in front of the market curve, responding to the general concerns of the market in a timely manner, can not be delayed, dragged on for a long time, the market concerns are disappointed, there is no concern when it is empty, there is no concern if it is not concerned, if there is no concern, "mourning is greater than death", the things behind will be difficult to handle, so we cannot delay, we must walk in front, and respond to the general concerns of the market in a timely manner.
Guangfa Macro Zhong Linnan interpreted that the three forces are part of the central bank's expected management, and are measures to deal with the "triple pressure" of the macro side of monetary policy. From the three perspectives of total, structure and time point, it is confirmed that interest rate cuts are not the end of the easing cycle, monetary policy will take into account the total amount and structure, and the force will try to catch up.
The market is too early to entangle the amount of loans is of little significance, the current interest rate cut has landed, the next step to be special debt in the "early and fast" principle of further landing, and then observe whether the project financing demand rises, infrastructure and manufacturing financing demand will not be driven. The central bank also pointed out very clearly this time that "all aspects are also exerting efforts", believing that in a few months, the downward pressure on the economy will become "yesterday's story".
The central bank insists on being the first to take the lead and focus on me
At yesterday's press conference of the State Council's new office, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, pointed out that the 1.17 reduction of MLF and OMO interest rates by 10BP "reflects the initiative of monetary policy and the forward force, which is conducive to boosting market confidence, reducing corporate loan interest rates, promoting the downward trend of bond interest rates, promoting the stabilization and decline of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises, and stabilizing the economic market."
However, CITIC Securities clearly said that the recent Release of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates earlier and faster and start a hawkish signal to shrink the balance sheet, the further advance of overseas monetary policy tightening time may be one of the reasons for the forward movement of interest rate cuts.
Sun Guofeng said that recently the monetary policy of major developed economies has begun to adjust, the market also has strong expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates and reduce the balance sheet, the mainland's macro-economy is large and resilient, in response to the epidemic has insisted on implementing normal monetary policy, did not engage in flood irrigation, but did a good job of cross-cycle design, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, financial support for the real economy is stable, the autonomy and stability of the financial system are enhanced, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be stable, which helps to alleviate and cope with external risks. Overall, policy adjustments in advanced economies have had a limited impact on the mainland.
Sun Guofeng said that in the next step, the People's Bank of China adheres to the principle of being the first word and taking me as the mainstay, grasping the strength and rhythm of prudent monetary policy according to the domestic situation, while enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, giving play to the function of exchange rate adjustment macro-economy and balance of payments automatic stabilizer, guiding market players to establish a risk-neutral concept, strengthening macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows, strengthening expectation management, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and actively and steadily responding to the adjustment of monetary policy in developed economies.
Hong Hao, managing director and head of the research department of BOCOM International, said that the Fed's tightening of policy is the reason for the central bank's rapid action. In his view, as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates, the policy window for the central bank to adopt a pre-emptive large-scale easing is rapidly closing, given the historical correlation of monetary policies between China and the United States – otherwise the renminbi will be under pressure and risk speculative capital outflows.
Are there any interest rate cuts and RRR cuts?
Also at yesterday's press conference, when asked whether it was possible to cut interest rates again, Vice President Liu Guoqiang believed that it was necessary to observe two angles: one angle was to look at the actual changes in loan interest rates, and pointed out that "the interest rate of corporate loans in 2021 was 4.61%, which is the lowest level in more than 40 years of reform and opening up", and the other angle was "to see what factors affect interest rates", including the cost of funds, market supply and demand, risk premium and other factors;
When asked whether it is possible to reduce the RRR again, Vice Governor Liu Guoqiang believes that "the current average reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%, which is no longer high", but also pointed out that "the space has become smaller, but there is still a certain amount of space, which we can use according to the needs of economic and financial operation and macroeconomic regulation and control." ”
Ming Ming believes that although there is still a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts after the interest rate cut, but with the introduction of interest rate cuts in the short term, it is expected that the market will enter a vacuum period of monetary policy total easing in the next 1 to 2 months, and more structural monetary policy, fiscal policy, industrial policy, etc. will gradually loosen, the market will pay more attention to the effect of credit opening and wide credit, and before the effect of wide credit is verified and the monetary aggregate policy is expected to rise again, it is expected that interest rates will still be difficult to get rid of the shock market.
Guohai Fixed Income said that the Fed may start a rate hike cycle in March, and historically, the central bank has never cut interest rates during the Fed's interest rate hike. From the perspective of Sino-US interest rate differentials, US inflation expectations continue to rise, and the Chinese central bank needs to leave room for the Fed to raise interest rates more than expected, and there is insufficient space for continued interest rate cuts. Although "the Fed raises interest rates, the Chinese central bank does not cut interest rates" is not an eternal truth, but in the first half of 2022, the US inflation expectations continue to rise, the Fed still has the possibility of raising interest rates beyond expectations, the Chinese central bank's interest rate cut operation will obviously be more cautious.
This article originated from the financial world