Last night the U.S. stock market was hammered again, when my super intuition told me that tomorrow the rest of the world's markets are afraid to follow the hammer, and sure enough, from the morning, the global stock market is like playing chicken blood, with a hundred meters sprint to win the momentum of the champion, without breathing and running to three o'clock, but unfortunately so hard, the championship still fell to the Japanese family next door.
Let's get back to the point, the U.S. stock market is not hammered for a day or two, from the above chart can also be clearly seen, the U.S. stock market not only fell for a period of time, but has formed a more obvious double top, in the next period of time, if you can not stabilize in time, you have to run to the next level, many people should be more strange, how the U.S. stock market will change so quickly, which has something to do with the rapid transformation of the Federal Reserve.
As we all know, since Bai Zong took office, he has mainly done three things, namely anti-epidemic, taxation, and large infrastructure.
Protest needless to say, wearing a mask can be tangled for a long time, after the baptism of Delta, Omicron, has now completely lying down, and such a lie, but let Bai Zong barely mix a passing score at this point, yes, it is so strange, Americans are loose, compared to infection or freedom is more important, let them have been squatting in the house, but it may be counterproductive, let things expand.
Taxation and big infrastructure in the previous article, the dilemma of the United States, or the further acceleration of the global game has been said in detail, here will not say more, these three are not doing very well, it can even be said that nothing has been done in the past year.
According to the survey in the United States, only 25% of Americans are satisfied with his performance in the past year, in other words, at least 70% are not satisfied with him, and it has to be said that he has broken some kind of record, and it is impossible to say that he is not in a hurry.
But the problem is that the three things done in the past year are either lying down, or the money collected is shrinking, or the infrastructure has to wait, in a short period of time, there is no other thing that can be handed out, only inflation, it is a breakthrough, as long as it can be stopped, it can also save the image in the hearts of Americans.
Of course, in addition to this, there is another factor that cannot be said, after staying up for so long, it is time to start the harvester, siphon the world's dollars home, and fill the gap, and if you want to do this, you have to let the Fed help.
Speaking of Powell, many people feel that there are some surprises that he and Bai Zong are not really in the same core group, and it is only natural that there is a gap, but they did not want to worship the general manager or extended a hand of friendship to him, and Bao Zong naturally had to repay the favor and help him with all his strength.
At the Fed meeting two days ago, Bao's attitude underwent a clear change, very simply admitting that the situation was miscalculated, inflation is not temporary, but quite persistent, so please note that I am going to go all out to deal with it, and also magically tell everyone that the pot of inflation really should not be buckled on his head.
Although the United States has been forced to print $6 trillion in the past two years, the reason why inflation has been formed for so long and the speed of flight is entirely because of the delay in recovering the global supply chain, and it really has too many dollars printed with the United States, and it has little to do with it.
Later, even if you want to solve inflation, you can only solve the demand side by tightening the dollar, the supply side is powerless, but you will do your best to suppress inflation in the case of ensuring that the US economy is not interfered with, and I am deeply impressed by this, but also have to give him a very accurate throwing pot technology to the middle index, and finally summarize it with the words of Nobel Prize winner Friedman, inflation is a monetary phenomenon everywhere!
Let's continue to say that the U.S. stock market, after getting clear information, capital is not speculating whether to add three times, such as Qiao Shui's founder Dalio has been saying that in 2022 or will raise interest rates 4 to 5 times, more and more thick interest rate hikes, directly frightened the U.S. stocks.
From the above chart is also very clear to see, the recent month, the speed of the US debt surge is very rapid, from 1.9% is only one step away, in the past many years the United States can achieve long bull, there are two main factors, a long-term low interest rate, so that enterprises have enough funds, can continue to expand production to enhance the growth rate, like one of the technology class, the most benefit from this, the other is a long-term stock buyback, according to the information found, In the past decade, the amount of money used for the repurchase of U.S. stocks has reached $5.1 trillion, and many people may wonder why American companies are so extravagant?
Of course, because the cost of borrowing silver is too low, the benefit is too good, and the use of silver with a very low cost to buy back is equivalent to increasing the income per share, adding on the stock, which is a typical borrowing chicken to lay eggs, why not enjoy it?
This phenomenon has reached a new height in the past two years, about 300 billion yuan was repurchased in 2020, 850 billion yuan was repurchased in 2021, and all the small partners should not be busy envying, this way has a huge problem, that is, it is very dependent on long-term low interest rates and sustained growth of benefits.
A few days ago, the United States also released the PPI CPI and total retail sales data in December, of which the first two year-on-year were 9.7% and 7%, reflecting the past, up for more than ten months, the last one, is 1.9% month-on-month, reflecting the real-time consumption data, but created a new low of ten months, through the scissors difference between these data can be clearly seen, the most upstream production end, can inflation spread to the price, but here is stuck, and not complete in the transmission to consumers, It can be seen that inflation for such a long time has made many Americans choose to cut back on food and clothing.
Saying such a few data, the main thing is to let you understand that if consumption continues to shrink, it will make corporate earnings in the United States begin to decline, coupled with the continuous tightening of interest rates, which will inevitably lead to the excessive valuation of US stocks.
Objectively speaking, now the United States has clearly entered the liquidity trap, and then printed, not only is it impossible to enhance the efficiency of the economy, but it is possible to make inflation more fierce, the bubble is higher, to know that the Loss caused by the double break of Japanese housing stocks in that year for thirty years, but it is still vivid, although it is not certain that the United States will repeat the same mistakes, but even if it is broken, how many dollars are needed?
It is said that the dollar can be printed indefinitely, but this is a long-term, not concentrated in a certain time, unless the knife is planned to be sealed from then on, otherwise it is necessary to give the wool time to grow, too frequently, except for cutting a lonely there will be no other.
Having said this, you should also understand that it is imperative for the Fed to raise interest rates, and the only thing that makes people wonder is how it ensures a smooth transition of US stocks and US houses in the case of reduced liquidity.
Make a bold guess here, if not accurate, you friends must be merciful when you come back to dig the grave in the future.
First shouting, small steps and slow walking, many witty friends, in recent years, should also find a strange habit of the Fed, the words spoken are always plausible, of course, this is not strange, after all, do not let you guess correctly, what else do you want him to do?
Strangely enough, every time he speaks, there are always all kinds of strange voices in the market, after constantly revealing what the Fed is going to do? Like this time of interest rate hikes, all parties have begun to predict how many times to add, but in fact, the first two days of the Fed did say that the rate hike, but also only forecast, where as now, not only 2022 is arranged, 2023 and 2024 have not failed, three, three and two respectively.
To put it bluntly, this is the Fed's strategy, a kind of anticipatory management, through the mouth of others, say what he wants to do, sometimes say it seriously, causing panic, you can wait until you say it yourself, turn the big things into small things, if you don't panic, then directly copy this way, so as to form a Fed, middleman, capital, the addition, subtraction, multiplication and division between the three.
The second to the return of the dollar, to supplement the gap caused by the tightening, as long as the external increase is greater than the internal reduction, then the US stock US house can indeed rely on these forced resistance, and even do not rule out that there is a small leap forward, do not understand can refer to the performance of the US stock market when the Fed raised interest rates in 2018.
The only conundrum here is how to get the dollar back more?
The current situation in the United States, you small partners also know that there is a liquidity trap in India, silver and India, which is also quite rare, but at this juncture, as long as the medicine stops, the economic recession cannot be avoided, and the original Bai Zong still wants to rely on large infrastructure to pick up this gap period, the result is not only shrinkage, but also delayed, and can only say a word in vain!
End
In these dramatic times, sometimes it's not who is better than whom, but who is worse than whom, as long as you behave slightly better than others, you don't go to him, he will come to you.
So what we have to do is to be stable, let the United States how to fan the wind and ignite, all in accordance with the existing rhythm, as for next year, in fact, there is no need to say more, it is almost a clear card, just with static braking, fully capable of hedging the Siphon of the United States, as long as it waits until the high and low switching is completed, it is a bittersweet time!
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