Judging from the latest meteorological forecasts, a new round of cold air will be ushered in on the 20th, and this time it will also usher in the largest range of rain and snow weather in the central and eastern parts this winter. At that time, many places in the north and south will begin to cool down again, and everyone must also do a good job of keeping warm.
Of course, with the approaching of cold air, many people have also begun to actively buy pork, and the increase in pork sales is a big positive for pig prices, and the pig market in many places is red and higher.
However, while pig prices are rising, the corn and rice markets are still not too good, and the overall downturn is sluggish.
01, 10 yuan pig price is expected?
The pig market in 2021 can be described as sluggish, and many pig companies have suffered tragic losses. However, from October onwards, pig prices began to rise, once rising to the 9 yuan mark, but in December, pig prices began to fall. Many pig farmers predict that the decline in pig prices at this time is temporary, and it will not be long before pig prices will continue to rise.
However, New Year's Day did not stimulate pig prices to go higher, due to sluggish consumption, the amount of output increased, pig prices fell for more than half a month, a single month of cumulative decline of 14%, from the 8 yuan mark to 6 yuan, pig farmers losses intensified.
For the future pig market, many people are not calm, after all, the Spring Festival is approaching, the pig market is "not in the peak season", which makes pig farmers very headache, many people began to sell, gambling on the future market pig market.
Sure enough, the average price of pigs today was 13.83 yuan / kg, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day, which greatly increased the confidence of pig farmers. From the monitoring data, the northeast pig price rebounded by 0.1 yuan, the mainstream market was 13.1-13.6 yuan / kg; the north China market was stable, the mainstream quotation was 13.4-14.2 yuan / kg, of which Jinji rose by 0.1-0.2 yuan; the northwest was stable, the mainstream was 12-13.45 yuan / kg, of which Shaanxi rose by 0.2 yuan.
The market in other regions is generally stable, and local ups and downs are mutually beneficial. For example, Shandong rose by 0.1 yuan, the quotation was 14.3 yuan / kg; Henan rose by 0.05 yuan, the mainstream was 14.05 yuan / kg; Guizhou rose by 0.05 yuan, the quotation was 13.45 yuan / kg; but Jiangsu fell 0.1 yuan, the quotation was 14.6 yuan / kg; Hainan fell 0.4 yuan, the quotation was 15.6 yuan / kg.
In general, as the end of the year approaches, the consumer demand in the market begins to increase, coupled with the arrival of cold air, which once again drives the desire to consume, so the sales of pork in the market increase. In addition, even if pig prices continue to fall, the market pork price is still firm, and the retail price is above 10 yuan.
With the reluctance of pig farmers to sell, the procurement pressure of slaughtering enterprises has increased, and then began to raise pig prices slightly, so now the market has begun to rise. However, in the southern region, the current market is still not too good, especially the white strip pig leftovers, so consumption is constrained.
For the pig market a few years ago, the author believes that it is difficult to rise sharply, and it is more difficult to rise to 8 yuan, let alone rise below the 10 yuan mark, so everyone must also be mentally prepared.
02, corn continues to fall
Judging from the recent market, the price of corn has not gone higher due to the arrival of the peak season of the previous year, but the market has fallen again and again, which has caused many people a headache.
It is reported that 12 enterprises in Shandong have lowered their prices, the mainstream price is 1.357 yuan / jin, such as Yishui Land fell by 1 point, the quotation is 1.37 yuan / jin; Yucheng Bowling Treasure fell by 1 point, the quotation is 1.36 yuan / jin; Fukuan Biology fell by 0.5 points, the quotation is 1.33 yuan / jin.
At present, some enterprises in Shandong, the market has fallen below 1.3 yuan / jin, and the price has fallen, but also due to the increasing arrival of goods, today's corn arrival vehicles are 1015 cars, compared with yesterday's 78 cars. Due to the loose supply, the amount of corn has increased, and the stockpiling of enterprises has been basically completed, so enterprises have reduced procurement and prices have fallen.
In the northeast region, the corn market has been stable for many days, mainly because enterprises have basically completed the procurement task, and farmers are not willing to sell at low prices, and the current quotation in the region is 1.11-1.25 yuan / catty.
In general, as the stockpiling of Shenzhen enterprises is nearing the end, it is difficult for the corn market to go higher a few years ago, and if farmers actively sell grain, the market may continue to fall.
03, rice is in danger
The rice market in 2021 has been sluggish, some rice companies have fallen into losses, and the ex-factory price of rice has dropped to about 1.6-1.7 yuan / catty, so the price of rice is not satisfactory. However, in Q4, rice was higher again as rice purchases increased. But it didn't take long for the rice to fall back again.
Thinking that the demand for rice increased a few years ago, the rice market will inevitably go higher, but in fact, the rice market will continue to be sluggish. Judging from the recent quotations, Huainanfeng Liangyou offer is only 1.28 yuan / jin, Lu'anFeng Liangyou fell to 1.265 yuan / jin, Zaoyang Feng Liangyou was 1.275 yuan / jin, Honghu Feng Liangyou was 1.3 yuan / jin, and Xinyang Feng Liangyou was 1.28 yuan / jin.
Last year, the market for indica rice was stable at about 1.4-1.45 yuan / catty, but this year's mainstream price fell to 1.26-1.3 yuan / catty, which shows how depressed rice prices are.
In terms of japonica rice, the grass-roots purchase price of round-grain rice in northeast China is basically below 1.3 yuan / catty, and there are still many rice enterprises in the region, so they hold a price-cutting attitude towards 21-year new rice. Even if Jiangsu japonica rice, the price has begun to fall, the current mainstream price at 1.37-1.43 yuan / catty, compared with last year's 1.5-1.55 yuan to see a lot lower.
The main reason for the weak rice market is that the inventory of rice is too large, the storage of rice is as many as hundreds of millions of tons, coupled with the sluggish sales of rice in the market, so the price of rice has been low for a long time.
However, the rice market is in crisis, the price of by-products is not low, the current japonica rice bran has risen to about 1.2-1.25 yuan / catty, and the market demand is large. The reason for this is also because the operating rate of rice enterprises is extremely low, and the result is that the production of rice bran is small.
At present, the rice market before the Spring Festival is difficult to go higher, and everyone can continue to wait and see and wait for the follow-up market. I thought that around the first month of the year, pig prices and grain prices could usher in a "seasonal" rise, but I did not think that the festival did not stimulate the market to go higher, but the Spring Festival was approaching, farmers and farmers panicked to sell, so pigs and grain prices ushered in a decline.
Now less than two weeks before the Spring Festival, many people are still fantasizing about the market going higher, so can pig prices and grain prices seize the last opportunity to go higher?