Since entering 2022, with the approaching peak consumption season of the New Year's Day Spring Festival, the market pig price market is not optimistic. Due to the sluggish consumption of the pork market and the acceleration of the concentration of pigs at the end of the year, after the New Year's Day, the pig price market fell more and more, and showed a downward trend of "diving". Affected by this, the trend of the egg market is also sluggish, and it has ushered in a shock decline, and the price of pigs and eggs has fallen lower, which has triggered the panic and worry of some farmers!
Some insiders said that if the market pork, egg consumption can not pick up, then the next cattle and sheep market is probably difficult to support, think of not falling back will be more difficult! So, what's going on here? What are the reasons for the continuous decline in pig prices and egg prices? Why is it that cattle and sheep are "in danger" and cannot hold up? Could it be that the cold winter of aquaculture has come?
Pig prices fell by 2 yuan a week
After the New Year's Day, the pig market continued to be sluggish, the market decline became the norm, with the emergence of successive "diving" falls, the average price of three yuan at home and abroad has fallen below the new low of two months, and the average price of pigs in the market has dropped below 7 yuan. According to the data released by the pig price system, the current average quotation of three yuan at home and abroad is 13.99 yuan / kg, down 2.05 yuan from last week and 56.2% from the same period last year.
In just one week, the price of pigs fell by nearly 2 yuan per kilogram. Such a decline can be described as very rare, to know that this is only the average price of the market, in the pig price "low-lying area" of the northeast, southwest and northwest parts, the actual transaction price is likely to have dropped to near 6 yuan, pig farmers are also miserable, the peak consumption season is coming, the Spring Festival pig price can still fall so much, it is indeed a bit unexpected.
It is understood that the reason why the current pig price continues to fall sharply, mainly because the market pork consumption is sluggish, the enthusiasm for fresh meat procurement of slaughter enterprises is not high, and the intensification of the concentration of pig enterprises at the end of the year has led to the decline in pig prices showing signs of "falling more and more".
Although the consumption is close to the Spring Festival, but due to the emergence of the early pork "low-price effect", the pickled meat consumption is prepared in advance, coupled with the rebound of the epidemic, the prevention and control upgrade, the overall damage to the catering industry, the weak consumer demand in the pork market, the white strip is more difficult, the slaughtering enterprises are down, statistics show that after January, the operating rate of domestic key slaughtering enterprises fell to 31.26%, down 3.84% from the end of December last week, which shows that near the Spring Festival, the consumption of the pork market has not increased, There are even signs of shrinkage.
On the supply side, with the approaching of the year, the speed of pig enterprises is also gradually accelerating, due to the abundant supply of pigs, the pressure to go out of the barn is larger, many pig farmers are not optimistic about the post-holiday pig price, in order to avoid losses, most pig farmers will choose to go out of the barn years ago, the number of pigs out of the bar has increased significantly, but also laid the groundwork for the decline in pig prices. With the impact of the continuous decline in pig prices, the market panic selling sentiment fermented, and the small weight pigs out of the barn increased significantly, and the pig prices fell more and more fiercely.
In the short term, the decline in pig prices or will continue, the probability of the first half of the market rise is not high, the current market rise in the good seems to be only the Spring Festival consumption. The Spring Festival pork consumption is often after the middle of the month, if the market consumption can not pick up, then the rise in pig prices will be meaningless. However, as far as the current market situation is concerned, even if the price of pigs in the Spring Festival will rise, in the context of the "strong supply and weak demand" of pork, the rise in the market may also be a cup of water, and the weakness of pig prices has basically become a foregone conclusion.
Eggs usher in a "tide of falling prices"?
Coincidentally, the pig market consumption is weak, the egg market is not much better, due to the sluggish consumption of eggs in the market, superimposed epidemic rebound prevention and control, egg transportation difficulty increases, after the New Year's Day, the egg market shows a shock and fall mode, the current market ordinary wholesale eggs have dropped to 4.4 ~ 4.5 yuan per kilogram, compared with the peak of last month's 5 yuan egg price, each kilogram of eggs fell by nearly 0.6 yuan, and the market egg is slow, the terminal procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the egg price has room for further shock downward.
According to the data released by the egg price network, the egg market continued to decline on January 12, and the local rebound was slightly ushered in, of which The West Dayang Road rose by 0.06 yuan / jin, the market quotation was 4.47 yuan / jin, the Hebei Pavilion pottery powder egg rose by 0.04 yuan / jin, the egg merchant quoted 4.11 yuan / jin, and in the Guangdong sales area, Shanxi production area, Henan production area and Hubei production area, the current egg price is still falling, but the decline shows narrowing signs, and the single-day decline is generally maintained at 0.04 ~ 0.1 yuan / jin, The market eggs are maintained at 4.11 ~ 4.65 yuan / catty.
At present, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the market egg consumption began to gradually pick up, the arrival of Goods on Dayang West Road decreased, and the price of eggs has ushered in a slight rebound, but from the overall point of view, the current egg market continues to be weak, due to the poor consumption of eggs in the market, traders are not high in the purchase of hoarding goods, most of the middlemen traders are on demand procurement, the local inventory is small in low-price production areas, although the egg farmers are reluctant to sell, although the mood of selling is enhanced, but it is difficult for women to cook without rice, the market demand is weak, and only egg farmers are reluctant to sell. I am afraid that it will be difficult to reverse the overall decline.
Regarding the egg market, the overall is still relatively optimistic, although the lack of favorable upward support in the short term, but the biggest difference with pork is that the supply of eggs is not as abundant and excessive as pork, coupled with the cold wave cooling layer chicken should surge more, winter egg production has declined, with the Spring Festival consumption season to rise, egg market will gradually improve Farmers do not need to worry too much.
Cattle and sheep "in crisis"?
In fact, since the third quarter, the cattle and sheep market is still very good, with the cold tide cooling weather affected by the cattle and sheep market consumption in advance, the market cattle and sheep trading ushered in the peak, the average price of live sheep once rose to 14 ~ 15 yuan / jin, the price of live cattle was once risen to 17 ~ 18 yuan / jin, the price of cattle and sheep rose through a new high, farmers are also doubling confidence, but with the Approaching of the New Year's Day Spring Festival consumption season, cattle and sheep prices have begun to continue to decline, and even ridiculed into pig prices have become difficult brothers.
According to statistics, the average price of live sheep in the market has dropped to 12 to 13 yuan / kg, and the price of live cattle has dropped to 16.8 ~ 17.3 yuan / kg, and with the sharp turn of the cattle and sheep market, the market has also presented a dangerous signal of no market. The more the price falls, the more farmers are eager to get out of the bar, but the market is not stable enough, the slaughterhouse to take the goods shows a wait-and-see attitude, because now the market is a price a day, today just received the goods, tomorrow to the slaughterhouse on the price has changed, not yet sold has been a loss, so many wholesalers are on demand, do not dare to blindly prepare goods, resulting in live cattle and live sheep market transactions do not meet expectations, the price continues to narrow and pull back.
In previous years, every waxing month, with the development of the peak season of market consumption, the price of live cattle and live sheep will rise, but this year, the price of cattle and sheep has not only not risen, but has ushered in a continuous decline, the reason for which may be that there is a large correlation between the following factors.
1, cattle and sheep rose too fiercely, the market consumption acceptance is not high, take the live cattle as an example, the average price of live cattle at the beginning of 18 years is only 12 to 13 yuan / kg, and by the end of 2021, the average price of live cattle has risen to 18 yuan / jin, up nearly 40% month-on-month, the cost of cattle prices continues to rise, beef prices can only become more and more expensive, these two years due to the sluggish market economy, consumers are difficult to accept, resulting in slow growth in beef sales.
2, the increase in imports, "mask incident", inhibiting the rise of domestic cattle and sheep. Due to the high price of domestic cattle and sheep, the number of imported cattle and sheep has broken through a new high, and due to the low price of imported cattle and sheep, it has caused a certain impact on domestic cattle and sheep. Coupled with the rebound of the epidemic, the catering market is not very sluggish, the market is unfavorable to the consumption of cattle and sheep, and the price pressure sentiment of wholesalers continues to increase.
3, the impact of the decline in pig prices, pork is a bulk commodity, the price of a sharp decline, the impact on the market meat prices is also obvious, coupled with the approaching year's close, farmers out of the bar mood intensified, the market continued to be sluggish, the market panic selling sentiment fermentation, slaughter enterprises to suppress prices is also fearless.
Regarding the cattle and sheep market, it is expected that there is still room for continuous decline in the short term, but the possibility of a big fall is unlikely, considering that the supply of domestic cattle and sheep market is in a tight state, the current price decline is mainly consumption, and there is no need for farmers to panic and sell too much caused by the import impact, because the price of the more the dump may be lower, waiting for the market cattle and sheep consumption to pick up, the price of cattle and sheep will rebound again. What do you think about that? Welcome to leave a message to discuss.