Financial Associated Press (Hefei, reporter Liu Mengran) news, the photovoltaic industry chain involves multiple links, and the upstream silicon cost price directly affects the downstream profit distribution. In 2021, under the background of the shortage of silicon materials, the upstream grasps the right to speak and earns a lot of money, while the downstream cells and components are "injured" deeply.
"Price increase exceeds expectations", "price firm", etc., are the keywords of the upstream of the industrial chain since the beginning of the year, for the downstream of the long-awaited price reduction of silicon materials, it will still be in a state of thirst in the short term. At present, the price of silicon materials is still rising slightly, according to the latest news of the Silicon Industry Branch, in the first week after the Spring Festival, the price of silicon materials continued to rise steadily, but the increase was not large, and the average price of the transaction increased by about 0.7%.
Some silicon manufacturers told the Financial Associated Press reporter that the recent downstream export demand is relatively strong, and supply and demand have promoted the price of silicon materials to continue to rise. In addition, according to Longzhong Information Monitoring, before and after the Spring Festival holiday, many first-line enterprises maintained a high operating rate of production, and other second- and third-tier enterprises also resumed production. Industry analysts said that the overall price trend of the industrial chain after the holiday is firm, the price of silicon wafers and batteries has risen significantly, and the game situation continues in the downstream resistance.
The upstream continues to rise slightly
According to the data of the Silicon Industry Branch, the domestic monocrystalline compound feeding price range this week is 235,000-247,000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 242,700 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% week-on-week; the price range of monocrystalline dense materials is 233,000-245,000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 240,200 yuan / ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.71%.
It is worth noting that the average price of the transaction still has upward momentum in the short term. According to Longzhong information monitoring, the price of silicon materials before the holiday due to the downstream demand for hoarding goods is higher, the post-holiday market continues to be good, the price is still at a high level; in terms of inventory, only local suppliers in Xinjiang have some inventory, and the rest of the silicon material manufacturers have signed orders in hand until the end of February and the beginning of March, and some small silicon wafer factories have begun to actively sign silicon orders from the end of February to March, at the expense of high price locks, and the high price of the signing order reaches 250 yuan / kg nearby.
In terms of silicon wafers, the rally is synchronized with silicon materials, this week M6 monocrystalline silicon wafers (166mm/165μm) price range in the 5.2-5.35 yuan / piece, the average transaction price increased to 5.25 yuan / piece, a week-on-week increase of 0.19%; M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers (182mm/ 165μm) price range in the 6.2-6.4 yuan / piece, the average transaction increased to 6.31 yuan / piece, a week-on-week increase of 0.48%; G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210mm / 165μm) price range of 6.2-6.4 yuan / piece, the average transaction increased to 6.31 yuan / piece, a week-on-week increase of 0.48%; G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210mm / 165μm) price range of 6.2-6.4 yuan / piece, the average transaction increased to 6.31 yuan / piece, a week-on-week increase of 0.48%; G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210mm / 165μm) price range of 6.2-6.4 yuan / piece, the average transaction increased to 6.31 yuan / piece, an increase of 0.48% week-on-week; G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210mm / 165μm) price range of 6.2-6.4 yuan / piece, the average transaction increase 160μm) price range in the 8.35-8.55 yuan / piece, the average transaction price remained at 8.51 yuan / piece, week-on-week flat.
Judging from the market reaction, the off-season is not weak, which is an important reason for the continuous slight rise in the upstream. In terms of starting construction, the operating rate of the two first-line silicon wafer enterprises was maintained at 70%, and the operating rate of integrated enterprises dropped to between 80% and 100%, and the reduction was partly for the shift rest during the Spring Festival holiday. It is also understood that the procurement of middle and downstream components and cells is equally optimistic, and there are few suspensions of production and work stoppages during the Spring Festival of battery factories.
In fact, from the perspective of the previous game situation of the industrial chain, if the profits of the middle and downstream are eroded significantly, they will usually use the method of reducing the operating rate and reducing the procurement of raw materials, forcing the upstream to make price concessions. However, in the case of improved terminal demand from the previous quarter, the acceptance of silicon wafer prices in the middle and lower reaches is also tentatively relaxed.
Industry analysts believe that under the phased mismatch between supply and demand, the price of the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain is firm in the short term, and it is still brewing price increases. Some silicon manufacturers told the Financial Associated Press reporter that the recent downstream export demand is relatively strong, and supply and demand have promoted the price of silicon materials to continue to rise. During the Spring Festival, the company continues to produce to meet the downstream silicon procurement needs.
The price inflection point of the year is long overdue
Although the inflection point of silicon price reduction is close to clear, before the new production capacity is put into mass production, the downstream of the industrial chain may still be in a state of thirst. According to the industry's multi-party forecasts, the inflection point of silicon prices may appear at the end of the second quarter of this year, when under the change of supply and demand, silicon prices will enter the downward trend.
According to the statistics of CICC Research Report, the polysilicon link, Tongwei Yongxiang 50,000 tons project has been put into production in November, and the follow-up 50,000 tons have a high probability of being released in the near future; the expansion of Xinte 28,000 tons and Daquan 35,000 tons has been completed; in addition, GCL's 20,000 tons of granular silicon has also been put into operation. On the whole, the increase in polysilicon production capacity during the 4Q21-1Q22 period is expected to reach more than 250,000 tons, considering the 3-month climbing period, the demand for 1H22 polysilicon will rise sharply.
According to the new capacity landing plan, polysilicon that will go up the road in 2021 is expected to decline in 2022. CITIC Construction Investment expects that in 2022, the price of silicon materials will experience a process of "first falling and then stabilizing at the end of the year and then falling again", the annual price center will be 180,000-200,000 yuan / ton, and the average price of silicon materials including tax in the fourth quarter will slide to about 170,000 yuan / ton. Jibang Consulting predicts that the price at the end of Q2 will usher in an inflection point.
However, for the above views, some analysts believe that they are optimistic. According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, it is expected that the domestic polysilicon production capacity will reach 860,000 tons / year in 2022, an increase of 340,000 tons / year over the previous year. The increment includes 110,000 tons /year (Jiangsu Zhongneng Particle Silicon, Leshan GCL Particle Silicon), Xinte Energy 20,000 tons / year, Xinjiang Daquan 40,000 tons / year, Yongxiang shares 120,000-150,000 tons / year (Inner Mongolia Tongwei Phase II, Yongxiang New Energy Phase II, Yunnan Tongwei Phase I), Asia Silicon Industry 30,000 tons / year and other subtotals of 20,000 tons / year.
From the time node point of view, the annual increase of 340,000 tons, about 180,000 tons of production capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year, the remaining 160,000 tons in the first quarter of the release, according to the expansion progress of various enterprises, according to the quarterly expected domestic polysilicon production of 157,000 tons, 177,000 tons, 181,000 tons, 200,000 tons, the total annual domestic silicon output of about 715,000 tons
Yu Duo told the Financial Associated Press reporter that the inflection point of silicon material prices actually depends on the expansion speed of large factories. At the end of the first quarter, new production capacity was put into operation, but it generally took two months to climb the slope, and the current polysilicon production method is mainly based on improving the Siemens method. The improved Siemens method has the characteristics of stable product quality and high production safety, but there are also technical control difficulties, especially the exploration and climbing time of second-line polysilicon manufacturers may be longer.
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