On January 18, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference for January. Li Yunqing, director of the Economic Operation Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in accordance with the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, since the fourth quarter of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, regions and key enterprises, has made every effort to promote the supply and price stability of coal, and achieved positive results in stages, laying a solid foundation for the next stage of coal supply guarantee, and the overall domestic coal supply is guaranteed.
First, the production capacity is guaranteed. Organize Jinshan, Mongolia and other major coal-producing areas to increase production and supply, coal production level rebounded rapidly, according to the statistics bureau data, in 2021 the national coal output of 4.07 billion tons, fully capable of ensuring reasonable coal demand.
Second, the transportation capacity is guaranteed. In recent years, we have continued to strengthen the construction of coal collection and transportation, the coal transportation capacity has been greatly enhanced, the national railway thermal coal transportation in the fourth quarter has increased by more than 20% year-on-year, the throughput of northern coal ports has hit a record high, and the demand for coal transportation can be better guaranteed.
Third, the reserve capacity is guaranteed. Accelerate the capacity building of coal reserves, in recent years, the reserve capacity of key areas has continued to increase, and the reserve resources that the government can dispatch have increased significantly, which has played an important role in ensuring coal supply. As of January 16, 2022, the national unified dispatch power plant had stored 166 million tons of coal, which could be used for 21 days, which was at the highest level in the same period of history.
Fourth, the use of key coal is guaranteed. In 2022, we will continue to promote the full coverage of medium- and long-term contracts for coal for power generation and heating, and further consolidate the basic coal supply plate。 Judging from the preliminary summary data, the number of contracts that have been completed in various regions has increased by nearly 700 million tons compared with last year, and most provinces have achieved full coverage of coal contracts for power generation and heating.
In addition, Li Yunqing said that it is necessary to ensure the safe and stable supply of energy. Guide coal-producing provinces, autonomous regions and coal production enterprises to maintain normal production, sales and shipment during the Spring Festival, and timely do a good job in linking coal production, transportation and marketing。 Strengthen the operation and management of coal-fired power and gas-fired units, improve peak capacity, and increase the output of new energy power generation through multiple channels。 Promote the full load production of domestic oil and gas fields, and maintain the safety and stability of crude oil, pipeline gas and LNG imports。 Keep an eye on important periods such as the Spring Festival holiday, the Winter Olympic Games and the Winter Paralympic Games, strengthen operation scheduling, and ensure a stable and orderly energy supply.
Last night, U.S. stocks opened sharply lower after the "long weekend", with the entire line gaping by more than 1%, and the Nasdaq, which is mostly technology stocks, fell the most. The "Panic Index" VIX surged nearly 21 percent to a one-month high.
As of this morning's close, the S&P 500 index closed down 1.84%, losing the 4600 round number for the first time in a month and falling nearly 4% this year. The Dow closed down 1.51 percent, down three days in a row, its biggest one-day decline since November last year. The NASDAQ closed down 2.60 percent, a three-month low, and has fallen more than 7 percent this year.
European stocks fell in unison. The Pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down about 1%, and major national indices such as the United Kingdom, Germany and France all fell more than 1% intraday. In addition, a fall of more than 5% in the Turkish stock index triggered a market-wide circuit breaker and will resume trading on Wednesday. Russian stocks plunged 6.5 percent, the biggest one-day drop during the pandemic.
The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 10.5 basis points to an intraday high of 1.877%, continuing to refresh its two-year high since January 2020, with U.S. stocks holding above 1.87% in late trading. The 2-year Treasury yield peaked at 9.1 basis points to the upside, with U.S. stocks holding above 1.04% in late trading. Both key US Treasury yields have returned to the levels they were on the eve of the outbreak in Europe and the United States.
According to financial blogger Zerohedge, today's equity-debt double kill, combined with a 10-year Treasury and S&P 500 market, is the largest single-day since March 2021, with the stock/bond portfolio losing money in 13 of the past 15 days. The price of a 10-year Treasury note hit its worst start in at least 30 years, and U.S. stocks started the worst New Year since 2016 and the third worst start in at least 30 years.
On the commodities side, WTI February crude futures closed up 1.92% and Brent March crude futures closed up 1.19%. Last night before the US stock market, OPEC monthly report said that even if countries tighten monetary policy, the oil market continues to be "strongly supported" by strong demand, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast unchanged this year. A stronger dollar weighed down some non-ferrous metals prices. LME copper closed down 0.7%, LME aluminum returned to the $3,000 / ton mark, period zinc rose 1.4%, period tin rose again 992 US dollars / ton, at 42292 US dollars / ton.
What is the current situation of thermal coal futures and spot markets?
"We must firmly believe in the determination of the National Development and Reform Commission to ensure supply and stable prices, with the promotion of coal and power integration, coal resources and power resources will be further integrated, the industry distribution will move closer to nationalization and heading, and the direction of industry development will be clean and efficient green energy as the goal." Guohai Liangshi Futures researcher Lai Zicheng said.
According to Lan Tianxiang, a senior researcher at the Futures Research Institute of Yingda University, in terms of coal production capacity, the national coal production in 2021 is 4.07 billion tons, especially the overall supply of thermal coal is greater than the consumption demand, which can fully guarantee the reasonable demand for coal.
In terms of coal reserve capacity, according to Lan Tianxiang, as of January 16, the national power plant had 166 million tons of coal and was available for 21 days, reaching the highest level in history. "The reserve capacity building target proposed in 2021 is 200 million tons of government reserve coal and 400 million tons of social and commercial reserves (of which 200 million tons are thermal coal reserves). Judging from the current coal reserve structure, there is an intersection between government reserve coal and social commercial reserve coal, mainly in the field of power plant reserves and large coal enterprise reserves. Accelerating reserve capacity building is an important support point of the current market, and it is also a possible demand growth point, and at the same time, in the first quarter of 2022, under the policy orientation of increasing production and supply and ensuring supply, the pattern of coal supply exceeding demand may continue, and this time period is the best time to accelerate the construction of coal reserves. He said.
"For the guarantee of key coal use, the meeting clarified that the signing of medium- and long-term contracts in 2022 will increase by nearly 700 million tons on the basis of 950 million tons in 2021, and most provinces have achieved full coverage of coal contracts for power generation and heating, which is also a key point of the long-term agreement signing that the market is very concerned about, and it is also the basis for determining the price mechanism and function of the thermal coal market in 2022." Blue Sky Xiang said.
Lan Tianxiang said that the efficient and clean utilization of coal is an important part of achieving the "double carbon" goal, especially on the basis of clarifying the "basic national conditions based on coal", proposing a path for the efficient and clean utilization of coal and multi-energy complementarity to achieve the dual carbon goal, laying a policy foundation for the steady operation of the coal market.
"In addition, the 'no holidays' of coal-producing enterprises in provinces and regions during the Spring Festival have made it clearer that the continuation and strengthening of the policy of 'increasing production, increasing supply, ensuring supply and stabilizing prices' has been clarified." Blue Sky Xiang said.
According to the reporter's understanding, the current coal spot market is in a pattern of supply and demand. "Specifically, the domestic and foreign sales in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are good, the phenomenon of pulling coal queues is still common, and the coal mine is maintained as soon as it is produced and sold, and there is no pressure to accumulate storage." Near the end of the year, the enthusiasm of power plants and chemical enterprises to replenish the warehouse is still high, the pulling is active, and the continuous release of demand has completely exceeded the expectations of coal mines. However, in the medium and long term, domestic production will remain at a high level of 12 million tons, and with the end of winter storage and replenishment, coal supply and demand will not change for a long time. Lai Zicheng said.
"Production is at a high level and demand is good, especially inland. From the perspective of port supply and demand, the port price is not as suitable as the local sales, so the enthusiasm for shipping to the port is low, and the port inventory declines faster. Spot prices are showing an upward trend, but are immediately facing a factory holiday, so the upside is expected to be limited. Yide Futures analyst Zeng Xiang said.
According to Fang Jie of Funeng Futures, the demand for coal has exceeded expectations in recent days, not only because crude oil continues to be strong, the domestic coal chemical load increases, and the reason for pushing up the demand for coal at the pit mouth, but also the situation of the rise of the domestic epidemic situation, which may have an impact on transportation, and the terminal may worry about the factors of late procurement or production, and early coal storage.
"In order to ensure the energy supply during the Winter Olympics and the Spring Festival, the government has requirements for terminals to withdraw storage, thus also releasing some demand to support prices." At the same time, the time of Indonesia's export ban has also led to the declaration of force majeure for previous purchases of coastal power plants, thereby increasing domestic demand. Zeng Xiang said.
In Lan Tianxiang's view, the spot price of thermal coal will not be due to the short-term oversupply impact of increasing production and supply and stabilizing prices, because the reserve capacity building demand is the largest demand outside the basic consumption demand for coal, which will support the stable operation of the spot price of thermal coal, in the context of strict market supervision, cracking down on hoarding, and raising coal prices, it is difficult for social investment demand to emerge in the short term, so the important factors that determine the trend of thermal coal in the first half of this year in addition to fundamental consumption demand, The main thing is to reserve capacity-building needs.
"Maintaining rapid growth in electricity consumption will increase the demand for coal under the current pattern, but with the rapid increase in the installed capacity of new energy, more and more new electricity consumption will be replaced by new energy, reducing the dependence of new electricity on thermal power." At the same time, after a round of centralized nuclear increase and land approval in China, the output has improved significantly. Therefore, although the rapid growth of electricity consumption will have a role in promoting coal prices, the rapid growth of new energy sources and the increase in coal production capacity will hedge this impact. Zeng Xiang said that in the future, the thermal coal market needs to pay attention to the stability of domestic production capacity, the release of downstream demand, the increase of foreign imports, and the accumulation of storage during the Spring Festival.
Leverage over 100 times! Such apps are suspected of illegally organizing futures trading
"Poor enough to owe an ass debt? Try investing five dollars in precious metals and change your account balance in 2 hours. "This is a common advertisement that can be seen online.
According to CCTV financial reports, on the home page of an app called Volcano Colored, you can see the prices of non-ferrous metals such as silver commodities and copper commodities and agricultural products such as soybeans and wheat. In the corresponding commodity interface, the price fluctuations are displayed with candlesticks.
Such a form is similar to futures, and in the mainland's current Futures Management Regulations, it is clearly prohibited to illegally set up futures trading venues or organize futures trading activities in other forms. When the CCTV reporter consulted the customer service of the platform, the customer service immediately denied the nature of the platform's investment and the five yuan investment mentioned in the advertisement.
Jiang Zhenwei, director of Shanghai Xinchang Law Firm, said that the content of consumer consultation is essentially different from the content displayed on the app, which involves false publicity.
Although customer service denies the relationship between the platform and investment. However, on the product order page, it can be found that the order is divided into two modes, spot price order and settlement price order. Order precious metals at the spot price, you can unsubscribe after the price increase of the precious metal to get benefits, and order with the settlement price can be ordered at a falling back order to get benefits.
In addition, the customer orders displayed on the platform are ultimately unsubscribed, and there is no need for users to purchase physical goods as customer service said. The price of a copper commodity is 5 yuan, the weight of this part is 10 kg, and the deposit is less than 1% of the value of the goods according to the price of copper. The leverage of the investment is more than 100 times. However, there are not many platforms like Volcano Nonferrous, and many investors have said online that they have incurred huge losses using similar platforms.
In addition to this investment channel called the precious metal ordering mall, there are also many so-called precious metal investment apps on the Internet. For example, a piece of software called One Point Ordering. On these two software, whether it is copper goods or silver goods, the price is not the same, open the candlestick chart, you can see that the price trend is not consistent.
Professor Cao Xiao, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics, said that these futures products are not regulated, the price is largely opaque, and these operating platforms can be artificially manipulated. Once the risk arises, there is a great deal of uncertainty as the consequences of contract trading are not formal futures contracts and are not formal futures exchanges.
Industry insiders remind investors that due to the lack of supervision of overseas futures companies, investors' funds are directly deposited in the company's account, and overseas futures companies can engage in spot trading and can do self-operated orders. Investor participation is therefore extremely risky. In addition, these companies are set up outside the country, and it is difficult for investors to verify the qualifications of the company, so there may be a situation where the company falsifies investor account data and commits fraud.
Supply-side disturbances still exist, and Shanghai tin is rising
Under the influence of the domestic spot supply is still tight, and the smelter production reduction expectations near the Spring Festival, the main contract of Shanghai tin yesterday 2202 opened high and rose, rising more than 4% intraday, hitting a new high of 319700 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 317600 yuan / ton, up 3.97%.
In fact, supply-side disturbances are the main driver of this round of continuous rise in tin prices. Since last year, the epidemic has spread around the world, the epidemic control effect in Myanmar is not good, and the customs clearance time in Myanmar has been extended to 2 times that of usual, making it difficult for tin concentrate imported from Myanmar to supplement domestic supply. The domestic refining tin smelting enterprises are also because of the low tin concentrate processing costs and weak production willingness, resulting in a tight supply of refined tin.
"It can be said that the supply side was the main factor that led to the rise in the current price of the tin period last year, and continued to this year, the impact of the epidemic still exists, and the impact from the supply side still becomes the driving force of the rise." Tianfeng Futures analyst Zhou Xiaoou said.
So, will tin below the high level inhibit downstream consumption? In this regard, Zhou Xiaoou said that after the sharp rise in tin prices, terminal orders have increased, and high prices have not directly inhibited demand, but for the downstream, the price fluctuations are too large, which will lead to the rise in the cost of funds they have advanced.
"This year, imported tin such as Indonesia so far export quota has not been announced, some LME warehouse single goods quotation is higher, considering that if there is no import source to fill the gap, and now the price is very high, some institutions dare not do the right set, afraid of not buying duty-free goods in the later period." But if this is the case, it will lead to the contract back structure basis and unilateral trend soaring together, especially now the 02 and 03 contract basis is only about 4,000 yuan / ton, last year's highest basis was 20,000 yuan. Therefore, this year's overall thinking is still more. Zhou Xiaoou said.
International oil prices rose strongly, and Goldman Sachs raised oil price expectations
Recently, international oil prices have risen sharply, and the main Brent crude oil contract has gone all the way up from the stage low of $65.720 / barrel in December 2021, and yesterday once stood at the threshold of $88 / barrel, up nearly 34%, once again refreshing the new high since October 2018. Driven by the outer market, the main domestic crude oil contract 2203 also rose more than once, rising 2.45% yesterday to close at 543.4 yuan / barrel.
"The strong rise in international oil prices can be interpreted from two perspectives, one is that supply and demand expectations have improved significantly compared with the end of last year, in early December the market is also worried that the crude oil market may have a large surplus situation in the first half of 2022, but with the passage of time, the Omicron epidemic worries about crude oil demand have subsided, and during this time, the supply side has frequently appeared speculation themes, OPEC+ production is lower than market expectations, so that the market is worried about supply potential. Next Ukraine dispute and Kazakhstan civil unrest and other geopolitical events and Libyan production instability and other factors to disturb the market nervous, January 18 a Yemeni Houthi armed attack on the UNITED Arab Emirates news let the oil prices rose sharply, to know that before the Yemen Houthi armed attack on the Middle East countries most of the time the market reaction is very flat, but the current such a news can ignite the market, it can be seen that the market sentiment is highly excited. Another factor is speculative funds to increase positions, in the recent crude oil market speculation theme continues to background, speculative funds repeated use of this time window, active entry to push up oil prices, data show that Brent and WTI crude oil speculative net long positions have created the largest increase in more than 2 months. Yang An, head of energy and chemical research and development at Haitong Futures, said.
According to Yu Pengsen, a researcher at Zhaojin Futures Energy, the current production restriction policy maintained by OPEC+ such as Saudi Arabia has caused the supply of the international crude oil market to exceed demand, the US crude oil inventory has continued to decline, and the global crude oil inventory has not increased, resulting in the international community's concern about the supply of crude oil in the future. Coupled with the rising risk aversion caused by the geopolitical crises in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and other places, the purchase of crude oil has once again aroused the interest of the capital market.
A number of internationally renowned investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, have also raised their expectations for international oil prices. Goldman Sachs reported that solid fundamentals reversed last year's decline in oil prices, and the market still unexpectedly has a large supply gap as the Impact of the Omicron variant on demand is far less than that of Delta. Goldman Sachs raised its Spot Price Forecast for Brent Crude Oil for the third and fourth quarters of 2022 by $20/barrel to $100/barrel; raised its 2022 price forecast from $81/barrel to $96/barrel; and raised its 2023 Brent oil price forecast from $85/barrel to $105/barrel.
It should be noted that Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday that despite the increasing shortage of spare capacity of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia does not intend to produce more crude oil outside its quota to make up for the lack of production in OPEC members.
"At present, OPEC+ is obviously a full taste of the sweetness of controlling supply, in the current high oil price situation, its position is very favorable, so OPEC+ is not eager to accelerate production increase, but as far as possible to keep oil prices at a relatively high level to increase their own revenue." In addition, according to OPEC's own assessment, increasing production will cause excess risks in the crude oil market, which is not in its own interests. Yang An said.
In The view of Yu Pengsen, such a statement shows that Saudi Arabia's concern about the global epidemic has always existed. "OPEC and EIA also disagree on supply and demand expectations for the future market, with the EIA believing that global crude oil will not reach a supply-demand balance until after September 2022, until then, it will continue to be in short supply. OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia believe that the global crude oil supply and demand balance will reverse in January 2022 and will enter the accumulation period in March and April. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has always been relatively cautious about increasing production. He said that in addition, the release of reserves by the United States and South Korea in response to the rise in oil prices has also triggered dissatisfaction in Saudi Arabia and other countries, believing that this is undermining the normal balance of the oil market, so it is necessary to reduce the supply of this part of the increase in reserves through production restrictions.
Recently, geopolitical conflicts have been continuous, in this regard, Yang An believes that geopolitical risks will become an important influencing factor in the market in 2022.
"In the new year, just half a month later, there have been a number of geopolitical risk events, and without exception have pushed up oil prices, the market is highly sensitive to this factor, with the rise in oil prices, the game between major powers, the interest game between the supply side and the core members of the consumer side will be further intensified, geopolitical conflicts are likely to escalate, which will further increase investors' concerns about supply stability, there is a risk of pushing up oil prices." Yang An said.
Yu Pengsen believes that at present, the international community still lacks effective means to deal with the current geopolitical conflicts, NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine problems have a long history, and cannot be resolved in a few days of negotiations, and the implementation of OPEC+ established production increase steps has been slow and has not achieved the expected effect, which will promote oil prices to continue to rise.
However, the geopolitical factors are short-term effects, Yang An believes that looking forward to 2022 crude oil market has been difficult to appear like last year's sharp decline in inventories, from the supply side to restore the potential and demand increment space comparison, the high probability of crude oil market will still appear excess situation, even if there are some unconventional factors on the supply side leading to less than expected, the crude oil market in 2022 should also be a tight balance stage, so for oil prices in the near future based on geopolitical and other speculation performance may continue to soar, The medium-term outlook should still be relatively cautious, and once the expectation of excess supply and demand in the later period is landed, there is a risk of oil prices falling.
"It should be noted that the uncertainty of the global epidemic and the uncertainty of supply and demand are still affecting the judgment of the entire market, and it is very difficult to judge the existence of bullish and bearish at the same time." On the whole, oil prices still have the possibility of rushing higher before the supply is effectively alleviated, but the upward pressure will be increasing, and the United States will weigh a series of problems caused by high oil prices, and it is very likely that measures will be introduced again to suppress them. The world's major oil-using countries will also take certain countermeasures, and the mainland will also release national reserves of crude oil around the Spring Festival, which are all factors that suppress oil prices in the future. Yu Pengsen said.
This article originated from Futures Daily