Recently, Russia's relations with NATO have fallen to the bottom. Previously, after NATO reduced the membership of the Russian Permanent Mission to NATO, Russia retaliated with tit-for-tat and suspended all activities of the Russian Liaison Representative Office in NATO. Today, the incident continues to ferment, and the two sides have escalated from airshed to military preparation.
NATO has always viewed Russia as a potential threat, but in recent years the two sides have maintained a certain partnership, occasionally making small fights, but harmless. However, as NATO provoked an incident and angered Russia, the two sides completely tore their faces.
Liu Jun, vice president of the China Society of International Relations and president of the Institute of International Relations and Regional Development of East China Normal University, said in an interview with Tianmu News that the "severance of diplomatic relations" between Russia and NATO is not only caused by the accumulation of many historical contradictions, but also stimulated by NATO's recent "dangerous tests."
Russia and NATO 'nothing to talk about'
Since the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, the contradictions between NATO and Russia have intensified. Although Ukraine does not currently meet the conditions for joining NATO, NATO's intention to win Ukraine over and use Ukraine against Russia is very obvious, which clearly touches Russia's bottom line. Some Russian media mentioned that on October 24, local time, Russian Kegong spokesman Peskov said bluntly: "NATO is an 'aggressive group' and regards Russia as an opponent. ”
Ukraine and NATO hold "Rapid Trident-2021" joint military exercise Source: Xinhua News Agency
What makes the Russians even more intolerable is that the United States, the backer behind NATO, has made waves from the middle, which has further expanded the contradictions between the two sides. According to US media reports, before participating in the NATO Defense Ministers' Meeting, US Defense Secretary Austin paid a special visit to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, to support its anti-Russian stance and encourage Ukraine to join NATO. "Russia is an 'obstacle' to a peaceful settlement of the problems in the eastern part of Ukraine, and a third country has no right to ban Kiev from joining NATO," Austin said. ”
Looking back at the fuse of the conflict between the two sides, it began when NATO "swept the members of the Russian representative office in NATO out of the door". According to CCTV News, on October 6, NATO announced that it had revoked the permanent qualifications of eight members of the Russian Permanent Mission to NATO and reduced the number of Russian mission personnel from 20 to 10. The next day, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg explained: "The expulsion of the eight members of the Russian Permanent Mission to NATO was because they engaged in espionage. ”
Obviously, this statement did not convince the Russians, who chose to strike hard to show their attitude. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov announced in Moscow on the 18th that Russia will suspend the work of the Russian Permanent Representative Office in NATO from November 1, as well as the activities of the NATO Military Liaison Office in Moscow.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg Source: Xinhua Net
This "diplomatic expulsion" by both sides has directly led to the loss of a window of dialogue between Russia and NATO. According to the Global Network, NATO can only contact Russia through the Russian ambassador to Belgium at present. Seeing that the relationship between the two sides is moving toward a freezing point, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg tries to "comfort" Russia, saying that it will still retain the channel of communication with Russia. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova responded on the 21st that there was nothing to talk about with Stoltenberg.
It can be seen that the turnaround of relations between Russia and NATO is temporarily hopeless. The Russian satellite network reported on the 24th that The Russian presidential press secretary Peskov commented on the suspension of Russia's representative office in NATO, saying, "Despite NATO's aggressive nature, Russia still advocates developing relations with it." It is only now that everything is obvious, and all our efforts have been in vain, that we have allowed reality to become an official statement".
NATO does not rule out a nuclear deterrent against Russia
Under the tension of the sword, the relationship between NATO and Russia has once again hit the rocks. According to CCTV News, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Glushko said on the 23rd that NATO returned to the Cold War model again after taking the "road of evolution".
Liu Jun, vice president of the China Society of International Relations and president of the Institute of International Relations and Regional Development at East China Normal University, pointed out that NATO has had a clear purpose since its inception, that is, to defend the former Soviet Union. As a result, it has always regarded Russia as an enemy, and even if the relationship between the two sides has rebounded, it will not last long. The "severance of diplomatic relations" is only a natural continuation, and the fundamental purpose is to limit Russia's development space in Europe, especially in the Baltic and Black Sea regions.
Seeing that the diplomatic contradictions with Russia could not be eased, NATO, which had the support of the United States, started the idea of using military force to deter Russia.
NATO headquarters photographed in Brussels, Belgium, on February 12, 2020 Image source: Xinhua News Agency
According to Russia Today (RT), NATO defense ministers recently signed the "Euro-Atlantic Regional Concept of Deterrence and Defense" program, a "new strategy on how to defeat Russia in any potential all-out conflict." As part of the plan, NATO troops will fight Russian forces in the Baltic Sea region, across the Black Sea. The battle plan also focuses on unconventional warfare, including the use of nuclear weapons, cyberattacks and even space conflicts.
In response to a question about whether NATO would consider containing Russia in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, including the use of nuclear weapons, German Defense Minister Kramp-Karrenbauer said it was necessary to make it clear to Russia that Western countries did not rule out the use of such means.
Clearly, nato-Russia relations show no signs of thawing in the short term. However, Liu Jun believes that the two sides are unlikely to move towards a full-scale military confrontation, and one side will always ease the contradictions through appropriate means.