"Military Sub-Plane" author: I am Ivan the Great
In early January, the submarine volcano of Hong Aha Apai Island in the South Pacific island nation of Tonga began to become active, and a smaller eruption occurred on January 14. Subsequently, around the early morning of January 15, local time, the volcano underwent a very large-scale eruption.
It is as powerful as the 1,000 atomic bombs of Hiroshima
Satellite cloud maps show that volcanic smoke clouds rushed straight to the top of the stratosphere about 25 kilometers above the ground, the impact range of volcanic ash reached more than 800 kilometers, the earthquake caused by volcanic eruptions reached a magnitude of 7.6 on the Richter scale, and shock waves swept across the entire earth, even causing sudden changes in air pressure Chinese mainland.
At present, it is reported that on the night of January 16 and the early morning of January 17, the Tonga submarine volcano erupted again, and the preliminary judgment may be caused by the pouring of seawater into the magma reservoir, and some Western observers believe that the activity of the Tonga submarine volcano may continue for weeks or even years.
The intensity of this eruption
Undoubtedly, the most serious impact of this undersea volcanic eruption in Tonga is the isolated island countries of Tonga and Fiji in the South Pacific:
On the one hand, the eruption is defined by the academic community as a "super pliny eruption". The so-called "super pliny eruption" is named after the eruption of Mount Vesuvius Latin in 79 AD, recorded by the Roman naturalist and historian Pliny the Younger. The main characteristics of this eruption are: first, with a large number of magmatic debris and volcanic ash, magmatic viscosity, extremely violent eruption, the amount of volcanic debris spewed out is extremely large; second, the eruption of a large amount of volcanic ash, magmatic debris, etc. to form a giant mushroom cloud, which can be directly rushed to the top of the troposphere, thereby bringing a large amount of volcanic ash into the global atmospheric cycle.
The most typical "super pliny eruption" in history is the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD recorded by Pliny. At that time, this eruption, a large number of hot lava flows and magma fragments splashed from high in the sky, directly buried the Roman Empire's Pompeii, causing huge casualties. The eruption of the submarine volcano on Hong Aha Apai Island was only a small-scale eruption on January 14, and the giant mushroom cloud formed was already shocking, and the two eruptions on January 15 and 16, the scale of magma clastic and sulfur dioxide gas spewed out was unimaginable, and the consequences were even more unpredictable.
The tsunami caused by the volcanic eruption shows the escape of residents before the disappearance of all of Tonga
On the other hand, the submarine volcano of Hong Aha Apay Island, too close to the capital of Tonga, Nuku'alofa, is only 65 kilometers away, and it is only the first eruption on January 14, and the volcanic ash and magma fragments from the submarine volcano have covered the sky over Nuku'alofa in a very short period of time. Since volcanic eruptions have cut off submarine cables and a large amount of volcanic magma debris has caused great interference in short-wave and long-wave communications, the whole of Tonga has been in a state of communication loss since January 15. Although contact was initially restored via maritime satellite phone on 16 January, only a few pieces of information and a few photographs were sent back indicating that the area was being hit by volcanic debris.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued an emergency Tsuwa Warning (Tsunami Alert) and expects the maximum height of the waves to reach 3 meters!
In addition, due to the strong Haitian earthquake caused by the volcanic eruption, the countries along the Pacific coast have issued tsunami warning information, of which the tsunami wave height observed in many places in Japan has reached 1.2 meters, and the coast of China is fortunately blocked by the first island chain island, and only 20 cm of wave height has been observed. However, considering that the capital of Tonga is too close to the site of the submarine volcanic eruption, the combination of volcanic shock waves, volcanic lava fragments and tsunamis has a huge impact on the capital of Tonga.
Are Chinese citizens in danger?
At present, according to the Chinese foreign ministry, the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in Tonga have launched an emergency plan for the first time, and many parties have learned about the disaster situation of Chinese citizens. It is said that at least dozens of Chinese citizens are currently engaged in project construction in Tonga, and after verification by the Tongan Embassy and Consulates, all the above Chinese citizens are safe. In addition, the Chinese foreign ministry stated that as a comprehensive strategic partner of Tonga, China expresses its deep sympathy and condolences to the Government and people of Tonga and is willing to provide corresponding assistance at the request of the Tonga government.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not received any reports of casualties among Chinese citizens
Clarifying the eruption of the Hong Aha Apay submarine volcano in Tonga and clarifying the situation of local Chinese citizens in Tonga, it is estimated that for most people, there are probably three issues that are most concerned at present:
A picture posted by a Weibo blogger at 10 o'clock on the 15th (after the first small eruption in Tonga) can see a very shocking "blood-colored sunset" scene, and at 12 o'clock after 2 hours, after the super eruption in Tonga, the blogger is currently in a state of disappearance.
First, the legendary "super eruption" that occurred on January 15, what kind of scene, because the current domestic communication in Tonga has not been fully restored, the photos of the January 15 eruption can only be taken by satellites;
The second is whether there will be another so-called "summerless year" after the end of this volcanic eruption, and the emergence of the "blood-colored sunset" caused by volcanic ash, which once gave great inspiration to the Norwegian painter Munch;
For us, it is estimated that the most concerned is whether the relevant parties will intervene to carry out humanitarian assistance to Tonga.
At present, the southern hemisphere is in the middle of summer, and the low-latitude stratosphere blows strong east winds. Due to the relative independence of the high-altitude wind circulation in the northern and southern hemispheres, in the short term, the volcanic ash entering the stratosphere mainly moves westward to cover the southern hemisphere, and the impact on the northern hemisphere is limited.
After all, the nature and impact of this volcanic eruption, we have already said before, to say it is more difficult to hear, although for all mankind, the impact of this volcanic eruption may be relatively limited, but for Tonga, the volcanic eruption has reached the level of "annihilation" level of disaster; and from the perspective of our country's vital interests, we still have a group of Chinese citizens in Tonga, as well as embassy and consulate staff stationed, not to mention Fiji and other South Pacific island countries next to Tonga, also suffered the impact of this volcanic eruption. In this sense, we also need to provide assistance.
Can the Chinese Navy move?
Then, as the "vanguard" of China's non-war military tasks and humanitarian assistance, if possible, has the Chinese Navy made preparations for this humanitarian assistance, and has our army already had the conditions for action in terms of equipment and tactics?
From the analysis of the current equipment factors of the Chinese Navy, Ivan the Great believes that if the Chinese Navy wants to go as far as the South Pacific and carry out non-war military operations and humanitarian assistance tasks, at least from the perspective of equipment, there is no problem, and there are still individual problems that need to be overcome on the tactical issue.
Equipment level
First of all, from the perspective of equipment, from the nature of the volcanic and tsunami disasters suffered by the Kingdom of Tonga, there must be a large number of task needs for personnel transfer in the disaster; there is also a need for treatment for some of the wounded who have been hit by volcanic debris and stone rain; and there is a need for epidemic prevention for the spread of tsunami and post-disaster plague that may be brought about by the tsunami.
In view of the above mission requirements, the Chinese Navy has a large amount of ready-made equipment sufficient to perform the above tasks:
Type 071 dock landing ship and Type 726 air cushion landing ship
The transfer of personnel from the Kingdom of Tonga, some of the wounded who were injured, burned and burned, we can completely use the amphibious dock landing ship, amphibious assault ship and other equipment to complete. On the one hand, these equipment have a relatively large dock cabin, which can carry air cushion landing craft, and complete the direct transportation of personnel from shore to ship in the case of poor port conditions and even inability to dock;
On the other hand, our army's Type 071 "Dawu Deng" or Type 075 "Two Attacks", as well as relatively large vehicle cabins, personnel residence cabins, etc., when undertaking amphibious landing tasks, are enough to carry hundreds of vehicles of various types and carry hundreds of marines, if they carry out non-war military operations, they are fully sure to carry thousands of disaster victims or mainland expatriates on one ship;
075 amphibious assault ship
Finally, Type 071 and Type 075 amphibious landing ships can also carry helicopters for vertical transport missions, although the current kingdom of Tonga due to the influence of volcanic ash, flight conditions are extremely harsh, almost no civil aviation aircraft can cross the ash influence area, but over time, it is estimated that helicopters can still fly back and forth for several voyages.
Hospital ship Peace Ark
In addition to the Type 071 dock landing ship and the Type 075 amphibious assault ship, don't forget that we also have a "trump card" for participating in foreign aid and non-war military operations, and the 866 Daishan Island medical ship, the hospital ship "Peace Ark", which has been mentioned more than once during the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020. According to the design indicators, this type of hospital ship can provide medical support for combat operations at the division and brigade level, and there are about 300 beds of various types on board, of which about 70 beds are burn beds, about 20 ICU beds, and the number of beds for the seriously wounded is more than 100. If necessary, the hospital ship Ark of Peace could serve as the core ship for this humanitarian assistance and travel as far as the South Pacific to take on the task of treating the seriously injured, especially the burned.
In short, judging from the current equipment of auxiliary combat ships in the Chinese Navy, "all the options are on the table", and it is not a big problem to quickly form a force that can rush to the South Pacific.
Tactical level
From a tactical point of view, if the current Chinese navy is to undertake the task of going as far as the South Pacific, carrying out humanitarian relief and evacuation of overseas Chinese, there are probably several problems to be overcome:
Tonga is too far away from us (Source: Baidu Map)
First, the Kingdom of Tonga is too far away from the Chinese mainland, starting from the main military port of the Southern Theater Navy, whether from the Bashi Strait of the Northern Line, or palau and the Melanesian Islands, or from the Barabak Strait on the Southern Front, across the Marugu Sea, the Arafra Sea and the Coral Sea, etc., the voyage is as high as 5,000 nautical miles (about 9,000 kilometers), the sea conditions are extremely complex, this will be the Farthest Expedition of the Chinese Navy Grand Fleet to the Southern Hemisphere.
On the afternoon of the 14th, a mushroom cloud rose after that smaller eruption
Second, the current meteorological and hydrological conditions in the sea around the Kingdom of Tonga are extremely complex, due to the large amount of magma debris erupted from the Hong Aha Apay submarine volcano into the atmosphere, a large amount of volcanic dust will bring a certain negative impact on the fleet's short-wave communication. At the same time, it is not clear whether the subsidence of volcanic ash will have a relatively large impact on the ship's ship's electrical system and surface equipment, and it is not known whether the fleet's aviation flight will be threatened. This means that if the Chinese Navy sends humanitarian support forces to the South Pacific, on the one hand, it must be fully prepared, on the other hand, it must be effectively coordinated with neighboring countries, and it is best to obtain land-based communications and meteorological support from Australia, New Zealand and other countries before it can be dispatched to the vicinity of Tonga.
In short, according to the current news, the activity of the Hong Aha Apay submarine volcano is still continuing, and it is not ruled out that there will be a larger eruption in the coming period, it is reported that the P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft of the Australian Navy has also taken off not long ago, flying to the vicinity of the Kingdom of Tonga to use synthetic aperture radar to assess the disaster, I believe that the joint efforts of all countries will be able to overcome this disaster, and the Chinese citizens in the Kingdom of Tonga will be able to return safely.